Latest Global S/C Sales Forecast Per Cowan LRA Model (June 2009)

Latest Global S/C Sales Forecast Per Cowan LRA Model (June 2009)

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Description: The Cowan LRA Model generates forecast estimates for worldwide semiconductor revenues -- covering the next six quarters. These sales estimates are derived using a dynamic model based on historical actual monthly semiconductor revenues over the past 25 years. The model incorporates both the cyclic and the seasonal nature of the actual historical data and relies on statistical analysis of the historical data employing linear regression analysis of certain combinations of the actual data.

 
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Contents:
THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MONTHLY GLOBAL S/C SALES FORECAST UPDATE
(BASED ON JUNE 2009's ACTUAL GLOBAL S/C SALES PUBLISHED BY THE WSTS ON 8-03-09)

Mike Cowan (8-08-09) E-mail : mikedcowan(at)verizon.net Telephone: 845-297-8692 1

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THE COWAN LRA MODEL � JUNE 2009 FORECAST RESULTS
PRESENTATION CONTENT
COWAN LRA MODEL � INTRO OVERVIEW LATEST QUARTERLY SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH FORECAST NOs. QUARTERLY GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND GRAPHIC BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL SALES & SALES GRWTH FRCSTS BY-MONTH 2009 SALES GROWTH FRCST VS. ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES GROWTH - GRAPHIC THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI, - AN OVERVIEW LAST 15 MONTHS OF COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR � GRAPHIC LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF MONTHLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR � GRAPHIC HISTORICAL BY-YEAR S/C SALES AND GROWTH TRENDS � GRAPHICS VARIOUS S/C MARKET ANALYSTS' 2009 YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH FORECASTS �TABLE, GRAPHIC ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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SLIDES #3, #4, #5 SLIDE #6 SLIDE #7 SLIDE #8 SLIDE #9 SLIDE #10 SLIDE #11 SLIDE #12 SLIDES #13 TO #17 SLIDES #18, #19 SLIDE #20
2

THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST
A semiconductor sales forecasting model, called the Cowan LRA Model, has been developed by the author to facilitate the determination of future global sales of the semiconductor industry. The Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts near-term global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that exploits statistical analysis carried out on the past 25 years of historical global semiconductor sales (in particular, monthly actual sales numbers) that are gathered and published by the WSTS, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, organization. It is a dynamic (that is, updated each month), mathematically-pure view of near-term worldwide semiconductor sales estimates looking forward over the next six quarters. Since the model is a purely mathematical forecasting approach, it is therefore devoid of any economic assumptions or emotional biases; that is, the model's statistical analysis approach captures the historical "experience" of the industry as "reflected" in its actual monthly sales numbers covering the past 25 years in order to predict the future.
3
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST, Cont'd
The model, as the name LRA implies, features linear regression analysis carried out on the "appropriately transformed" actual monthly sales numbers published by the WSTS. The mathematical transformation of the monthly sales data "renders" the global semiconductor sales data highly linear and, therefore, very amenable to linear regression statistical analysis techniques � more on this later in the accompanying slides. The resulting numerical transformation of the past 25 years of monthly, actual sales numbers -- from 1984 to 2008, inclusively -- that is invoked is not a complicated mathematical expression but very straight forward and "makes sense physically" thereby yielding extremely high linear regression correlation coefficients of 0.97 and greater. In exercising the model each month, a total of six distinct sets of linear regression parameters (that is, m and b - of the format y = mx + b) are employed in order to calculate the resulting global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for each of the next six quarters that comprise the model's forecast horizon, namely 3Q09, 4Q09, 1Q10, 2Q10, 3Q10 and 4Q10. 4
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL (FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL S/C SALES) � "DIVINING" THE FUTURE FROM THE PAST, Cont'd
It should be emphasized that each month's actual global sales number published by the WSTS is a "lagging indicator" since it is released a full month after the fact. The Cowan LRA Model, however, "turns" this lagging monthly sales number into a "leading indicator" by virtue of its short-term forecasting capability looking out over the next six quarters. This is the "beauty" of the model and, therefore, makes it dynamic in the sense that it can be run each month utilizing the most recent actual global S/C sales number published by the WSTS and thus can rigorously "track" the near-term sales forecast outlook of the global semiconductor industry on an almost real-time basis. Consequently, the model's monthly sales forecast does not "sit still" but "evolves" with each month's latest sales result since conditions change rapidly and unexpectedly in the semiconductor industry, and market forecasters are hard pressed to keep up with these changes. How can industry management be sure that a forecast issued two, three, or more months ago is still valid, relevant to what's happening in today's global semiconductor market?
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5

LATEST QRTRLY SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH FORECAST ESTIMATES
1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q 2008, 1Q, 2Q 2009 ACTUALS (SOURCE: WSTS); 3Q, 4Q 2009 + 1Q, 2Q And 3Q 2010 ESTIMATES (SOURCE: COWAN LRA MODEL)

NOTE � MODEL EXTENDED IN ORDER TO ADD 4Q10 AND THUS 2010 SALES FORECAST Nos.
JUNE09 Time Pe riod 1Q08 2Q08 1H08 3Q08 4Q08 2H08 2008 1Q09 2Q09 1H09 3Q09 Est 4Q09 Est 2H09 Est Sale s ($B) 62.806 64.702 127.508 68.876 52.218 121.094 248.603 44.219 51.707 95.927 51.813 51.174 102.987 Yr-O-Yr Sales Grow th 2.8% 8.0% 5.4% 1.6% -21.9% -10.1% -2.8% -29.6% -20.1% -24.8% -24.8% -2.0% -15.0% Qtr-O-Qtr Sequential Sales Sales Grow th Grow th ---6.0% 3.0% -----5.3% 6.5% ---24.2% -----5.0% -----15.5% --16.9% -----20.8% 0.2% ---1.2% ----1.1% -----4.6% --2.3% -----4.1% --22.7% -10.5% ----17.6% ----Pct Change From Last Month's Sale s Forecas t
---------------------

/\
|| || || ACTUALs || || || ||

\/ /\
|| || || || FRCSTs || || || ||

1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

2009 Est
1Q10 Est 2Q10 Est 1H10 Est 3Q10 Est 4Q10 Est 2H10 Est

198.914
48.825 49.949 98.774 61.298 54.853 116.151

-20.0%
10.4% -3.4% 3.0% 18.3% 7.2% 12.8%

1.4%
1.4% -8.4% -3.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A

\/

2010 Est

214.925

8.0%

6

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QUARTERLY GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND
2008, 1Q09 & 2Q09 ACTUALS (WSTS); 3Q09 THRU 4Q10 ESTIMATES (COWAN LRA MODEL)
BY-QTR SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROW TH TREND - JUNE 2009 RESULTS
$68.88B $64.70B

16.9% 10.4%

18.3%

20.0%

$65.0

5.4% 2.8% 1.6%
$52.22B

0.2% -2.0%
$51.71B $51.81B $51.17B $54.51B

$61.30B

8.0%

7.2%

10.0%

$60.0

$54.85B

0.0%

$50.0

$44.22B

QTRLY SALES ($B) YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%)

$48.15B

$55.0

-10.0%

-20.0%

-21.9%

QUARTERLY FORECASTS
-30.0%

$45.0

-29.6%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Est 4Q09 Est 1Q10 Est 2Q10 Est 3Q10 Est 4Q10 Est

YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

$70.0

QUARTERLY SALES ($B) ======>

$62.81B

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)

7

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BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL SALES & SALES GROWTH FORECASTS
Time Period JAN 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

ACTUAL SALES - $B 13.151
-31.0%

JAN09 FEB09 FRCST - $B FRCST - $B $13.446 N/A
-27.3%

MAR09 FRCST - $B N/A 16.926
-32.8%

APR09 FRCST - $B N/A N/A N/A $13.374
-29.4%

MAY09 FRCST - $B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $14.686
-27.5%

JUN09 FRCST - $B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $18.294
-28.3%

JUL09 FRCST - $B N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $15.221
-26.8%

PREV / LATEST UPDATE 3-03-09 4-06-09 4-06-09 5-04-09 5-04-09 6-02-09 7-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09

MOMENTUM INDI CATOR -30.6% +0.08% N/A +2.0% N/A +19.6% +10.0% +5.4%

FEB 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

13.456
-26.4%

N/A $43.509
-29.6%

N/A $43.549
-30.7%

1Q09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A 17.271
-31.5%

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

MAR 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

1Q09 ACT
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

44.023
-29.9%

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

APR 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$15.993
-15.5%

MAY 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$16.154
-19.5%

N/A N/A N/A

JUN 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$19.274
-24.5%

N/A N/A

2Q09 ACT
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$51.707
-20.1%

N/A

=============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = = =

YTD 2009
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$95.927
-24.8%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

$111.147
-25.0%

8-03-09

=============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = = =

3Q09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A

$47.413
-24.8%

$47.460
-31.1%

$47.944
-30.4%

$50.180
-27.1%

$51.121
-25.8%

$51.813
-24.8%

8-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09

4Q09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$46.953
-2.0%

$46.949
-10.1%

$47.452
-9.1%

$49.583
-5.0%

$50.488
-3.3%

$51.174
-2.0%

2H09 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$94.366
-22.1%

$94.408
-22.0%

$95.396
-21.2%

$99.762
-17.6%

$101.609
-16.1%

$102.987
-15.0%

= =============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = =

2009 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A

$181.986 -26.8% $48.499
11.5%

$182.084 -26.8% $47.573
9.2%

$183.988 -26.0% $45.277
2.8%

$192.504 -22.6% $47.271
6.9%

$196.176 -21.1% $48.145
8.9%

$198.914 -20.0% $48.825
10.4%

8-03-09

= =============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = =

1Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

8-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09 8-03-09

2Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A N/A N/A

N/A N/A N/A N/A

$50.989
-1.4%

$53.355
3.2%

$54.506
5.4%

$49.949
-3.4%

1H10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$96.267
ERR

$100.626
ERR

$102.651
ERR

$98.774
3.0%

3Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

$61.298
18.3%

4Q10 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

$54.853
5.9%

=============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = = =

2010 Est
Yr-O-Yr Grwth

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

$214.925 8.0%

8-03-09

=============== ============= =========== =========== ============ ============ ============= ============= ============= ================= ============== = = = = = = = = = =

SOURCEs: WSTS (Actuals) and COWAN LRA MODEL (Forecasts) NOTES: ALL ITALICIZED NUMBERS ARE FORECASTS: N / A => Not Applicable

8

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BY-MONTH COWAN LRA MODEL's 2009 SALES GROWTH FORECAST
VERSUS

BY-MONTH ACTUAL 2009 YTD CUM SALES GROWTH

COWAN LRA MODEL's FORECAST BY MONTH

ACTUAL MONTHLY 2009 CUM YTD SALES GROWTH

9
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THE COWAN LRA MODEL �
MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI
June 2009's actual S/C sales result ($19.274B) came in higher than last month's Jun09 sales forecast estimate (of $18.294B) which represents a plus 5.4 percent delta comparing Jun09's actual sales to the model's forecast estimate from last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model's MI (see next two slides for this indicator's short-term and long-term historical trends, respectively).

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for
a given month -- in this case June's just published actual global sales of $19.274 B and the forecasted sales estimate for June, that is, $18.294B which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the
percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from its previous month's prediction derived from the model's linear regression analysis of the past 25 years of historical monthly global "sales experience."
10
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LAST 15 MONTHS TREND OF COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR, MI (APRIL 2008 => JUNE 2009)
MONTHLY MOMENTUM INDICATOR TREND FOR PAST 15 MONTHS (APRIL 2008 THROUGH June 2009)

$ 2 7 .1 9

24.0%

G L O B A L S /C S A L E S = > A C T U A L , F O R E C A S T E S T - $ B = == = == >

$ 2 5 .5 2

$ 2 2 .0 2

$ 2 1 .9 6

$ 2 2 .8 6

$27.50 $25.00 $22.50 $20.00

16.0%

$ 2 1 .8 7

$ 2 0 .1 1

$ 2 0 .0 5

$ 2 0 .5 3

$ 2 0 .7 7

10.0%
$ 1 8 .9 5 $ 1 6 .9 3
$ 1 7 .2 7

12.0%

$ 1 9 .3 8

$ 1 9 .3 1

$ 1 6 .9 6

3.6% 1.8%2.1%3.2%

$ 1 5 .8 8

$ 1 5 .9 9

$ 1 6 .1 5

$ 1 5 .2 2

2.0% 0.1%
$ 1 3 .4 5 $ 1 3 .3 7
$ 1 3 .4 6 $ 1 3 .1 5

$ 1 8 .2 9

$ 1 9 .2 7

5.4%

8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0% -16.0%

P ER C E N T D E LTA - A C TU A L vs ES T (% ) = == = == >

$30.00

$ 2 6 .2 9

19.6%
$ 2 4 .3 0

$ 2 4 .7 2

20.0%

$17.50 $15.00 $12.50 $10.00 $7.50 $5.00 $2.50 $0.00 APR 08 MAY 08 JUN 08 JUL 08

-0.7% -3.3%

-12.1%
MOMENTUM INDICATOR - RHS ==>

-20.0% -24.0%

-25.8% -30.6% -34.6%
AUG 08 SEPT 08 OCT 08 NOV 08 DEC 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09

-28.0% -32.0% -36.0%

Monthly Actual - $B

Next Mnth's Frcst Est.-$B

% Delta => Act. VS Frcst Est. (Prev Mnth)

NOTE - THE MI DROPPED AGAIN FROM ITS RECORD HIGH VALUE OF APRIL AND REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH COMPARED TO HISTORICAL RESULTS. THIS IS STILL POSITIVE NEWS: AN INDICATION OF A NEARTERM CONTINUATION IN THE GLOBAL S/C SALES GROWTH RECOVERY.
11

(B a r G rap h s )

$ 1 4 .6 9

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( L in e G r a p h )

12
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HISTORICAL BY-YEAR S/C SALES AND GROWTH TRENDS � 1984 TO 2010 EST.
BY-YR GLOBAL S/ C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (1984=>2010 Est.)

$300

$227.5B $247.7B $255.6B $248.6B

41.7%

40.0%

38.3%

$198.9B $214.9B

$275
YEARLY S/C SALES ($B) ======>

29.1% 31.8%

36.8%

$225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0

22.7% 23.4%

28.0%

$250

30.0%

20.0%

8.4% 3.6% 8.1% 9.6%

6.8% 8.9% 3.2% -2.8%

10.0%

0.0%

YEARLY GLOBAL S/C SALES ($B)

-20.0%

-10.0%

-32.0%

-20.0%

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-30.0%

t. t. 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 98 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Es Es 1 09 10 20 20

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & the COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

18.9%

18.3%

-8.6% 4.0% -8.4%

-17.2%

1.3%

8.0%

13

HISTORICAL 1Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 1Q84 THRU 1Q10 EST.
BY-QTR (1Q) GLOBAL S/ C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (1Q84=>1Q10 Est.)

BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (1Q) SALES ($B) ======>

$60

42.7%

43.3%

40.0%

$50

22.3%

22.0%

30.9%

30.0%

15.6%

15.8%

$40

21.0%

20.0%

1.5% -0.0%

-4.9%

2.5%

-4.4%

$30

-9.4% -4.7% 6.9%

10.4%

10.0%

0. 0%

$20

-10.0%

-25.5%

$10
Update d - 8-07-09

-29.6%

-20.0%

$0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

-30.0%

YRLY 1Q GLOBAL S/ C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

34.8%

14.6%

32.4% 12.7% 7.3% 3.4% 2.8%

14

HISTORICAL 2Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 2Q84 THRU 2Q10 EST.
BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (2Q) SALES ($B) ======>
49.0%
BY-QTR (2Q) GLOBAL S/ C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (2Q84=>2Q10 Est.) 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0%

$50

$40

11.3% -1.9% 11.3% 5.0%

0.7% 10.1% 0.9% 8.0%

10.0%

$30

0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0%

$10
Update d - 8-07-09

$0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est.

YEARLY 2Q GLOBAL S/ C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-31.1%

-20.1%

$20

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

41.4%

23.6% 18.4%

33.1% 29.3%

-12.0% 8.0% -13.8% 13.9%

-1.6% 11.9%

40.5%

$60

46.7%

-17.4%

-3.4%

15

HISTORICAL 3Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 3Q84 THRU 3Q10 EST.
BY-QTR (3Q) GLOBAL S/ C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (3Q84=>3Q10 Est.)

BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (3Q) SALES ($B) ======>

45.5%

$70

32.7% 28.5% 40.8%

39.0%

40.0% 30.0%

$60

18.8%

4.9% 8.5% 5.3% 13.6%

15.0%

18.3%

$50

20.0% 10.0% 0. 0% -10.0%

$40

$30

$20

-20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

$10
Update d - 8-07-09

$0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 1984 1985 1986 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008

YEARLY 3Q GLOBAL S/ C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-44.7%

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

36.7%

20.6% 17.5% 28.2%

23.8%

-17.5%

-13.5%

5.6% 9.1% 5.9% 1.6% -24.8%

-26.0%

16

HISTORICAL 4Q GLOBAL S/C SALES & YR-O-YR GROWTH TREND � 4Q84 THRU 4Q10 EST.
BY-YEAR QUARTERLY (4Q) SALES ($B) ======>
BY-QTR (4Q) GLOBAL S/ C SALES AND YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH TREND (4Q84=>4Q10 Est.) $70 40.0%

29.2% 38.0% 37.1%

31.0% 34.2% 33.9%

30.0% 21.6%

23.1% 28.0% 14.6% 8.6% 9.0% 2.5%

$60

30.0% 20.0% 10.0%

-2.3% 13.0% 1.5% 17.3%

$50

$40

0. 0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

$20

-23.8%

$10
Up date d - 8-07-09

$0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2009 2009 Est. 2010 Est. 1984 1985 1986 2005 2006 2007 2008

YEARLY 4Q GLOBAL S/ C SALES ($B)

YR-O-YR SALES GRWTH (%)

-43.1%

-21.9%

$30

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) & COWAN LRA Model (2009 Est & 2010 Est)
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YR-O-YR SALES GROWTH (%) ======>

4.5% -1.5%

-16.6%

-2.0% 7.2%

17

VARIOUS S/C MARKET RESEARCHERs / ANALYSTs � 2009 SALES GROWTH FORECASTS
Com pany 1 2 3
Broadpoint.AmTech Carnegie ASA Citigroup -20.0% -26.8% January 2009 April 2009 -22.6% -21.1% Increased Increased June 2009 July 2009

2009 Forecasted Grow th
-20.0% -5.0%

As of Date
December 2008 N/A

Revised 2009 Forecasted Growth
-8.0% -13.0%

CHANGE From Previous For ecas t
Reduced Reduced

As of Date
December 2008 April 2009

STAT U S

-15.0%

Reduced

June 2009

4
5

Cowan LRA Model Databeans
-6.0% -2.0% December 2008 November 2008

-20.0%
-18.0%

Increased
Reduced

Aug 2009
February 2009

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