21ST CENTURY ECONOMIC DRIVERS for ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY

21ST CENTURY ECONOMIC DRIVERS for ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY

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Description: The size of RE & EE Industries is unknown, making any forecasts meaningless unless we have a baseline. So, we estimate the current size of EE & RE industries for in dollars, direct jobs and jobs created, then forecast its growth to 2030. RE&EE sales are more than the combined sales of the top 3 U.S.

companies: Wal-Mart, ExxonMobil, and GM; is growing faster than average and has some of the most rapidly growing industries in the world, such as wind, fuel cells, and biofuels.

 
Author: Roger H. Bezdek, Ph.D., President of Management Information Services (Fellow) | Visits: 2246 | Page Views: 2254
Domain:  Green Tech Category: Environmental Subcategory: Business 
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Contents:
RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY: ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Presented at the Environmental and gy y g Energy Study Institute Briefing 902 Hart Senate Office Building November 8, 2007 Roger H. Bezdek, Ph.D., President Management Information Services, Inc. Washington, D.C. rbezdek@misi-net.com

WHAT IS CURRENT S S CU STATUS O THE INDUSTRY? US OF US
"Prior to determining where we are going, we must determine from whence we came." � A. Lincoln � � � Current size of RE&EE Industries is unknown Any forecasts are meaningless unless we know what the size of the industry is � or was in 2006 First, must estimate current size of EE&RE industries � this has not been done before -U.S. -Ohio Then, Then forecast industries growth to 2030 -3 scenarios -U.S. -Ohio
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US U.S. RE & EE INDUSTRIES IN 2006 US S 006
IIndustry d t Revenues R (billions) Direct J b Di t Jobs (thousands) Total (di t l T t l (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created (thousands) 446 8,046 8,492

Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency TOTAL

$39.2 $39 2 932.6 $971.8

194 3,498 3,692

Source : Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2007.
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U.S. RE INDUSTRY IN 2006
Industry Segment Revenues/ Budgets (billions) $3.0 1.0 0.1 4.0 2.0 6.3 0.3 17.0 17 0 0.9 0.8 35.4 0.5 0 5 1.8 0.9 3.2 0.6 Direct Jobs Total (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created 36,800 15,700 1,900 19,000 21,000 154,000 6,300 152,000 152 000 11,100 9,200 427,000 1,850 1 850 8,300 5,750 15,870 3,450

Wind Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Hydroelectric Power Geothermal Biomass Ethanol Biodiesel Biomass P Bi Power Fuel Cells Hydrogen Total, Private Industry Federal Government DOE Laboratories State and Local Government Total Government Trade and Professional Associations and NGOs TOTAL, ALL SECTORS

16,000 6,800 800 8,000 9,000 67,000 2,750 66,000 66 000 4,800 4,000 185,150 800 800* 3,600** 2,500 6,900 1,500

$39.2

193,550

446,320

p y pp *Includes Federal employees and direct support contractors. **Includes Federal employees, laboratory employees, and direct support contractors.
Source : Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2007.

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U.S. EE INDUSTRY IN 2006
Industry Segment Revenues/ Budgets (billions) $5 3 275 73 22 12 90 45 12 19 105 220 2 36 919 3.3 3 2.3 8.6 86 and 0.5 Direct Jobs (thousands) Total (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created (thousands) 60 44 3,013 380 198 117 718 421 104 175 894 1,214 32 522 7,892 35 64 48 147 7

Insulation ESCO Recycling Vehicle manufacturing Household appliances and lighting Windows and doors Computers, copies, and FAX machines TV, Video, and Audio equipment HVAC systems Industrial and related machinery Miscellaneous durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Utilities Construction C t ti Total, Private Industry Federal government EE spending State government EE spending Local government EE spending Total G T t l Government t EE Trade and NGOs Professional Associations

26 19 1,310 165 86 51 312 183 45 76 389 528 14 227 3,431 15 28 21 64 3

TOTAL, ALL SECTORS

$932.6

3,498

8,046

Source : Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2007.

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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RE&EE IS ENORMOUS
2006 RE&EE sales represent substantially more than the combined 2006 sales of the 3 largest U.S. corporations (WalMart, ExxonMobil Mart ExxonMobil, & GM) � RE&EE are growing more rapidly than U.S. average � Contain some of the most rapidly growing industries in the world, such as wind, f l cells, and bi f l h i d fuel ll d biofuels In 2006 they generated annually: � Nearly a trillion dollars in industry sales � 8.5 million new jobs � More than $100 billion in industry profits � More than $150 billion in increased federal, state, and local government tax revenues � Stimulus to the U.S. manufacturing industry � Significant displacement of imported oil � Reduction in the U.S. trade deficit
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EE&RE OCCUPATIONS: WAGES, EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS, AND GROWTH FORECASTS
(Selected Occupations)
Occupation Materials Scientists Physicists Microbiologists Biological Technicians Conservation Scientists Chemists Chemical Technicians Geoscientists Natural Science Managers Environmental Eng. Technicians Soil and Plant Scientists Mechanical Eng. Technicians Environmental Sci Technicians Sci. Biomedical Engineers Chemical Engineers Mechanical Engineers Electrical Engineers Environmental Engineers Computer Scientists Life & Physical Sci. Technicians Utility Plant Operatives HVAC Technicians Energy Audit Specialists Forest & Conservation Workers Refuse & Recycling Workers Insulation Workers 10 year % Growth Forecast 8 7 17 17 6 7 4 6 14 24 20 12 16 31 11 10 12 14 26 20 4 12 18 6 5 6 Median Salary $74,400 91,500 63,400 36,500 53,800 63,500 40,100 73,200 99,100 42,000 58,000 46,500 38,500 38 500 75,400 79,200 77,000 76,000 74,500 94,000 45,200 53,000 37,600 39,500 27,000 26,000 $ $30,200 , % With Bachelor's Degree 94 92 96 60 88 94 27 94 90 18 64 18 47 60 92 88 83 82 67 50 10 14 18 8 2 2 Education Bachelor's Doctoral Doctoral Associate Bachelor's Bachelor s Bachelor's Associate Doctoral Bachelor's Associate Bachelor's Associate Associate Bachelor's Bachelor's Bachelor's Bachelor's Bachelor's Doctoral Associate OJT OJT OJT OJT OJT OJT

Source: Management Information Services, Inc. and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2007.

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TYPICAL EMPLOYEE PROFILE OF A 250-PERSON WIND TURBINE MFG COMPANY, 2006 ,
(Selected Occupations)
Occupation Engine and Other Machine Assemblers Machinists Team Assemblers Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators Mechanical Engineers First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, and Samplers p p Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Operators Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Operators Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers Maintenance and Repair Workers Tool and Die Makers Grinding/Polishing/Buffing Machine Tool Operators Multiple Machine Tool Operators Industrial Engineers Industrial Machinery Mechanics Purchasing Agents g g Engineering Managers Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks Accountants and Auditors Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Electricians Mechanical Engineering Technicians Janitors and Cleaners Source: Management Information Services, Inc., 2007. Employees 31 27 16 12 10 10 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 Earnings $36,300 40,500 40 500 30,100 40,600 71,600 59,600 40,400 40,000 39,800 39,900 29,800 44,100 43,600 43 600 34,800 40,800 70,400 46,000 56,200 108,300 32,100 59,800 43,200 49,600 50,900 50 900 29,800

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THREE FORECAST SCENARIOS FOR 2030
THE BASE CASE: -Is essentially a "business as usual" case scenario that assumes no change in policy -We use the base case as a comparison against the two alternative scenarios THE ADVANCED SCENARIO: -"pushes the envelope" on RE&EE industry possible from current or impending technologies -Represents a dramatic indication of what would be possible under an aggressive renewable energy scenario THE MODERATE SCENARIO: -Assumes that various moderate, i A th t i d t incremental ( b t l (above th b the base case) Federal and state RE&EE initiatives are put in place over next two decades -Based on various "mid range" estimates incorporating mid-range estimates, modest initiatives
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THE U.S. RE & EE INDUSTRIES IN 2030 US US S 030

RE EE Total

Revenues Total Jobs Created (Billions of 2006 Dollars) (Direct Plus Indirect � Thousands) Base Case Moderate Aggressive Base Moderate Aggressive Scenario Scenario Case Scenario Scenario $95 $227 $597 1,305 1 305 3,138 3 138 7,935 7 935 1,818 2,152 3,933 14,953 17,825 32,185 $1,913 $2,379 $4,530 16,258 20,963 40,120 $1 913 $2 379 $4 530 16 258 20 963 40 120

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The U.S RE INDUSTRY IN 2030
( (SELECTED TECHNOLOGIES) )
180 160 140

Billio 2006 Dollars on

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Wind

Solar Thermal Base Case

PV

Geothermal

Ethanol

Biomass Power 11

Moderate Scenario

Advanced Scenario

U.S. JOBS CREATED BY RE IN 2030
(TOTAL JOBS CREATED -- SELECTED TECHNOLOGIES)
2.5

2

Jo (Millions obs s)

1.5

1

0.5

0 Wind Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Ethanol Biomass Power

Base Case

Moderate Scenario

Advanced Scenario

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U.S. JOBS CREATED BY RE IN 2030
(TOTAL JOBS CREATED -- SELECTED OCCUPATIONS)
100

80

Jobs (Thousa ands)

60

40

20

0

Base Case

Advanced Scenario

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EE&RE IMPACT IN O O & C OHIO
EE&RE INDUSTRIES IN OHIO, 2006 ,

Industry

Revenues (millions)

Direct Jobs

Total (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created 6,615 496,535 496 535 503,150

Renewable Energy Energy Efficienc Energ Efficiency TOTAL

$785 50,120 50 120 $50,905

2,880 205,780 205 780 208,660

Source : M S Managementt Information Services, Inc. and American S l E I f ti S i I d A i Solar Energy S i t 2007 Society, 2007.

14

RE INDUSTRY IN OHIO, 2006
Industry Segment Revenues/ Budgets (millions) $250 25 1 120 112 30 12 125 80 755 6 4 10 20 $785 Direct Jobs 740 200 10 200 550 200 80 370 450 2,800 20 10 30 50 2,880 Total (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created 1,700 460 20 460 1,270 , 460 180 850 1,030 1 030 6,430 45 25 70 115 6,615

Wind Photovoltaics Solar Thermal Hydroelectric Power Geothermal Biomass Ethanol Biodiesel Biomass Power Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Total, Private Industry Federal Government State and Local Government Total Government Trade/Professional Associations & NGOs TOTAL, ALL SECTORS

Source : Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2007.

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EE INDUSTRY IN OHIO, 2006
Industry Segment Revenues/ Budgets (millions) $220 130 18,500 2,870 1,830 550 1,100 1 100 4,360 510 1,150 7,240 10,120 18 1,110 49,700 5 15 20 $400 $50,120 $50 120 Direct Jobs 1,100 630 97,300 24,800 8,650 3,020 5,650 5 650 14,820 2,650 5,060 25,300 18,300 220 7,720 205,220 20 40 60 500 205,780 205 780 Total (direct plus indirect) Jobs Created 2,500 1,450 1 450 224,000 57,100 19,900 6,900 13,000 13 000 34,100 6,100 11,640 58,200 42,100 500 17,750 495,240 45 100 145 1,150 496,535 496 535

Insulation ESCO Recycling Vehicle manufacturing Household appliances and lighting Windows and doors Computers, copies, Computers copies and FAX machines TV, Video, and Audio equipment HVAC systems Industrial and related machinery Miscellaneous durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Utilities Construction Total, Private Industry Federal government EE spending State St t and local government EE spending dl l t di Total Government Trade/Professional Associations & NGOs TOTAL, TOTAL ALL SECTORS

Source : Management Information Services, Inc. and American Solar Energy Society, 2007.

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EE&RE FIRMS IN O O & S OHIO
We conducted a survey of existing EE&RE companies in Ohio, examining a functional, technological, and geographic mix of companies. Our research revealed a wide range of firms, and they: � Are located throughout the state, in major urban centers, suburbs, small towns, and rural areas. � Range in size from small firms of several employees to large firms employing hundreds � Are engaged a wide variety of activities, including manufacturing, engineering, R&D, installation, monitoring, analysis, etc. � Include some of the most sophisticated, innovative, high-tech firms in the state

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EE&RE FIRMS IN OHIO
(Examples of Selected Firms)
Company Sector Location Company Sector
RE EE RE RE EE RE EE RE RE RE EE EE EE RE RE&EE RE EE EE RE RE EE EE

Location
Port Clinton Cleveland Cl l d North Benton Berlin Center Toledo Hartville Cleveland Dayton Columbus Perrysville Strongsville Toledo Dayton D t North Lawrence Athens North Ridgeville Fairfield Twinsburg Athens Akron Hilliard Solon

Advanced Hydro Solutions RE Fairlawn North Coast Wind & Power American A F l A i Ag Fuels RE Defiance D fi Novar C t l C N Controls Corp. AMTEK Solid State Controls EE Columbus O'Brock Windmill Distributors CybetUtility RE Cleveland Ohio Windmill Mfg. Co. Dovetail Solar & Wind RE Glouster Owens Corning Energy Technologies, Inc. EE Mansfield Renewable Lubricants, Inc. EXTOL of Ohio EE Norwalk Repower Solutions p Eye Lighting International EE Mentor Schward Electrical Energy Technologies, Inc. EE Mansfield SCI Engineered Materials Essential Research, Inc. EE&RE Cleveland Solar Creations First Solar RE Perrysburg Special Materials Research Forry, Inc. EE Chagrin Falls SSOE Systems, Inc. Gardiner T G di Trane EE Solon S l Staco Energy Products St E P d t James Leffel & Company RE Springfield SunLight Energy Systems Jatro Diesel RE Mason Sunpower, Inc. Joe Mescan Windmill RE Columbia Station Technology Bus. Development Liquid Resources of Ohio RE Medina Teron Lighting, Inc. M&B s M&B's Battery Company RE&EE Harrison The Enterprise Corp. Malcolm Pirnie EE Akron Third Sun Solar & Wind Power Michael Byrne Mfg. Co. EE Mansfield Universal Electric Power Mariner Energy Systems EE Brunswick Vanner, Inc. Midwest Mechanical Power RE&EE Plain City Venture Lighting National Electric Coil EE Columbus Source: Management Information Services, Inc. and Green Energy Ohio, 2007 S M tI f ti S i I dG E Ohi 2007.

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EXAMPLES OF EE&RE FIRMS IN OHIO
(Characteristics of Selected Firms)
Company American Ag Fuels CybetUtility, LLC Dovetail Solar & Wind Dyson Corporation EXTOL of Ohio, Inc. First Solar, LLC Solar Forry, Inc. Malcolm Pirnie Spero Electric Corporation Venture Lighting Wastequip Sector RE RE RE RE EE RE EE EE EE EE EE Products & Services Biodiesel manufacturing facility Bio-diesel production Installer of solar and wind energy products Manufacturer of components for wind energy systems Manufacturer and fabricator of thermal insulation systems Manufacturer of solar photovoltaic modules Manufacturer of microprocessor and electronic EE and environmental controls EE and environmental engineering and consulting lti Manufacturer of EE lighting systems Manufacturer of metal halide lighting systems Manufacturer and distributor of waste and recycling equipment Location Defiance Cleveland Glouster Painesville Norwalk Perrysburg Chagrin Falls Columbus Streetsboro Streetsboro Cleveland RE/EE Jobs in Ohio 11 5 8 12 45 150 120 150 95 280 10
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Source: Management Information Services, Inc. and Green Energy Ohio, 2007.

O O OHIO EE&RE INDUSTRIES IN 2030 & US S 030

RE EE Total

Total Jobs Created Revenues (Billions (Billi off 2006 Dollars)) D ll (Direct Plus I di (Di t Pl Indirectt � Th Thousands)) d Base Case Moderate Aggressive Base Moderate Aggressive Scenario Scenario Case Scenario Scenario $2.0 $5.7 $17.7 21 56 174 96.7 114.7 202.6 964 1,150 2,096 $98.7 $98 7 $120.4 $120 4 $220.3 $220 3 985 1,206 1 206 2,270 2 270

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RENEWABLE ENERGY CAN CREATE NEW JOBS IN OHIO
60,000 50,000

40,000

Jobs

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Wind PV Geothermal Ethanol Biodiesel Biomass Power Fuel Cells & Hydrogen

2006

2030 Advanced Scenario

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OHIO JOBS CREATED BY RE IN 2030
(TOTAL JOBS CREATED -- SELECTED OCCUPATIONS)
3000

2500

2000

Jobs

1500

1000

500

0

Base Case

Advanced Scenario

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EE&RE OFFER DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR OHIO
� Employment growth in EE&RE varies among sectors: Growing sectors include A&E, R&D, ESCO, environmental technologies, bio-fuels, power technologies, technologies industrial processes distributed generation computer controls & processes, generation, systems, HVAC systems, and others EE&RE creates a variety of high-paying jobs, many of which take advantage of Ohio manufacturing skills g g Ohio, with its traditional manufacturing economy, can recruit EE&RE companies to take advantage of its skilled workforces for wind turbine manufacturing, biofuels production, etc. Wages in many EE&RE sectors are higher than the U.S. average, and EE&RE requires a wide mix of occupations EE&RE occupations include many jobs that require associate's degrees, onthe-job training, the job training or trade certifications and which pay high wages Unlike some industries, EE&RE is a realistic target for job creation in Ohio: State & local communities can build clusters around industry sectors Many entrance points makes EE&RE market easier to penetrate if Ohio can utilize its strengths in workforce, tech, mfg., R&D, education, etc.
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� �

� � � �

RE&EE CREATE SKILLED, WELL-PAYING JOBS NOT SUBJECT TO FOREIGN OUTSOURCING
� � � � RE&EE can create many jobs in two categories that Ohio is eager yj g g to attract and retain: 1. College-educated professional workers, many with advanced degrees g 2. Highly skilled, technical workers, with advanced training and technical expertise, many of them in the manufacturing sector RE&EE thus generate jobs that are disproportionately for highly skilled, well-paid, technical and professional workers, who provide the foundation for entrepreneurship and economic growth. These are the high-skilled, high-wage, technical and professional jobs g , g g , p j that all states and regions seek to attract Ohio is in competition with other states for these new energy economy jobs yj
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