The Future of Photovoltaic Power Generation

The Future of Photovoltaic Power Generation

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Author: Dr. Yukinori Kuwano (Fellow) | Visits: 2214 | Page Views: 2359
Domain:  Green Tech Category: Photovoltaics/Solar Subcategory: Business 
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Contents:
The Future of Photovoltaic
Power Generation
Photovoltaic Power
Generation Technology
Research Association

President

Dr.Yukinori Kuwano

Contents
1. Why Photovoltaic Power Generation?
Environmental issues and energy problems
Population problem and enhancement of living standards

2.
3.
4.
5.

PV has the possibility to save our future
A new start after 50 years of PV history
PV systems as basic energy suppliers
GENESIS project – the possibility of a final energy
solution
6. Break through in super conducting electric power
transmission

1

Degradation of the Global Environment
Greenhouse
Effect

CO2
NOx
SOx

Sun

NOx SOx CO2
Gas flow

Acid rain
Fluorocarbon

Earth Lake
Atmospheric warming/
Pollution:
Acid rain:
Unnatural ecosystems Death of marine life forms
Abnormal weather
Destruction of plant life
Desertification
2

Melting of polar
ice caps:
Average temperature
Increases by 3℃

CO2 emission (1015g-C/year)

World CO2 Emissions
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Developing Countries
Eastern Europe
OECD
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Source: IPCC 2 report (1996)
nd

3

World population (million)

World Population Growth Trend
10,000
Over 9,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Source:Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau
4

Reserves of Various Energy Sources
Possible periods
Possible periods
of mining (years)
of mining (years)
67y.
67y.
41y.
41y.
45年

155y.
155y.

0.91
×1012t

1.80
×1014m3

1.20
×1012barrels

Oil

85y.
85y.

Natural gas

4.74
×106t

Coal

Uranium

British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2006,URANIUM2005
5

World energy consumption
(Petroleum equivalent : 1 million b/d)

History of Energy Consumption by Humankind
250

TV, Transistor,
atomic power stations

200

Gasoline engines,
thermal power stations,
and the start of drilling
for oil

150
100
50

6

Use of tools and fire
Use of animals
for conveyance

Watt's steam
engine

0
B.C.
B.C. A.D.
~1 million1000 1000

Discovery
of fire

Solar
Energy

IC, LSI

Industrial Revolution

Used fire
and animal

A.D.
1700
Firewood,
water wheels,
Windmills

~1 million ~10 thousands ~500

Energy
Gap
Natural
gas

Petroleum
Coal
Atomic Power
Firewood, etc.
A.D.
A.D.
2000
2100
Coal

PetroSolar
leum
energy

~200

~40

Uses of Solar Energy
••Limitless
Limitless
••Clean
Clean
••Everywhere
Everywhere

SUN
+

Huge energy!!
The amount of solar
energy that reaches the
earth in an hour is
enough to supply our
energy needs for a year
7

Electricity
p

n

-

Solar cell
Solar cell

V

Electrical use
12:3
0

Oil crisis

National project started in U.S., E.C and Japan etc (ex. Sunshine Project)

P/n control of amorphous Si (Spear)
P-i-n solar cell with initial efficiency of 2.4% (Carlson and Wronski)

Consumer electronics powered by a-Si solar cell (calculator etc)
Revelation of environmental degradation
GENESIS project (PVSEC-4, Sydney)

Practical reverse-flow solar power generation system
(Kuwano’s solar power station)
Basic guideline for new energy introduction

SILK ROAD GENESIS (SRG) Plan
Roadmap Toward 2030 (PV2030)
Annual solar cell production exceed 1GW (equal to a nuclear power plant)

Present

2020
2030
8

-30 years
of next
stage-

2010

Future Prospect
for Solar Cell

(2) Advance to
supply electric
power

1994
1996
2004
2005
2007

Single crystalline silicon solar cell(Pearson)

(3) Spread of
solar power
generation on a
global scale

1954
1973
1974
1975
1976
1980
1988
1989
1992

(1) The dawn of
solar power
generation

History of Solar Cell

Progress in Conversion Efficiency
of Solar Cells
Conversion efficiency (%)

30
Si
c-

20

-Si
a

10

9

0

po

-Si
ly

1960

1980 2000
Year

2020

HIT Solar Cell
(HIT: Hetero-junction with Intrinsic Thin-layer)
23
Conversion Efficiency (%)

22

HIT solar cells
(laboratory)

21

200W
Η = 19.7%

20

HIT solar cells
mass production

19
18

p/i a-Si
(about 0.01µm,Ts=< 200゜C)
transparent
electrode

190W

17
16
15
14
1995

10

η=22.3%
Highest
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