Two Billion Cars: Is it Sustainable?
University of California, Davis
April 13, 2009
2 Billion Vehicles in 2020 (globally)!
3.0 Number of Motor Vehicles (Billions) 2.5
Cycles & Scooters Trucks & Buses Cars
50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 30
Source: Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on DOE, JAMA, other projections
In next 10 years, world will consume 1/4 of all oil consumed through its entire history
Cumulative global oil production, 19502030
C um ulative G lobal O il P roduction (billion barrels)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Sperling and Gordon (2009), based on U.S. DOE/EIA data
Cars and Oil: A Blessing and a Curse
Oil Problem #1: Middle East Gaining More Control of Oil Production
120 100 52% market share 80 mb/d 60 40 44% 20 0 2005 40% 2030 48% 56%
Total OPEC Non-OPEC conventional oil
Non-OPEC non-conventional oil OPEC market share
Source: IEA reference scenario
Oil Problem #2: Shift to High-Carbon Unconventional Oil
Supply "Curve" of World Hydrocarbon Resources
80 70 70 60
$ per barrel
Arctic WEO required Cumulative 2030 WEO required Cumulative 2030 Arctic
50 40 30 20 10
50 40 30 20 10
Already Already Produced Produced OPEC OPEC Middle Middle East East Other Other ConvConventional entional
Oil Shale Oil Shale
EOR Heavy oil EOR Bitumen Heavy oil Bitumen
Super Deep Super Deep
Deep Water Deep Water
0 0 0 0 1000 1000
Barrels Oil (billions)
Humans Need to Dramatically Reduce CO2 Emissions to Stabilize the Climate
Some scientists now say 350 ppm is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate
Billion tons of CO2 (global)
To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use vs. IS92a.
Transportation's Large Role in Climate Change
21% 0% 5% 10% 30% 35% Direct share* transport15% emissions 25% CO2 20% rose more rapidly Greenhouse gas emissions in transportation than any other sector up 120% between 1970 and 2004 40%
Transforming vehicles ("easiest") Transforming fuels (hard) Transforming mobility (hardest)
First Leg Transforming Vehicles
Cars of future will be far more efficient and will be powered mostly by electric-drive
"...If we work together, we can make the 21st century the age of the electric vehicle."
Toyota Chairman Shoichiro Toyoda, October 1996
Electric vehicle experiment of 1990s largely failed ... but led to improved batteries and electric drivetrains which are now making comebacks in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles... and battery-electric vehicles!
DCX GEMs in Factory, 2002 GM EV1
Early version of Ford//Pivco BEV
Will Plug-in Vehicles Succeed?
In China? Yes! As small battery-electrics? Yes! As blended hybrids? Yes! As Volt-type hybrids? Hmm... some day
Battery cost must drop, durability must increase
Connecting Vehicles to Buildings and Electricity Grid
Battery Progress is Impressive, but Next Generation Batteries are Still Expensive
Peak Power Density (W/kg)
1 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225
Energy Density (Wh/kg) NiMH LFP LTO NCM
LFP= lithium iron phosphate (cathode); LTO= lithium titanium oxide (anode); NCM= lithium (nickel, cobalt, manganese) (cathode)
...But it's also about fixing today's cars
45 40 35 Vehicle efficiency (ton-mpg)
30 25 20
Most studies now say that 50% improvement is possible with gasoline ICEVs by 2030, with much greater improvements provided by hybrids, diesel, BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs
Fuel economy (mpg)
10 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Model year
Source: Lutsey and Sperling, 2007
Can we stop the horsepower race and use efficiency innovation for improved fuel economy? Policy plays key role!
Transforming Vehicles...Next Steps
35 mpg by 2020 Is this enough? Tax credits for hybrids, fuel cell, battery-electric
Increased R&D investments batteries and
California and Other States
~42 mpg by 2020 (if Obama approves) Zero Emission Vehicle requirements
"Detroit Churches Pray for `God's Bailout'"
SUVs on altar of Greater Grace Temple, a Pentecostal church in Detroit, as congregants prayed to save the auto industry. NY Times, 12/7/08
...SUV sales up in December 2008
Second Leg Transforming Fuels
The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.
Sheikh Zaki Yamani, Saudi Arabian oil minister for 3 decades
Today: 97% dependent on oil Future: Wide mix of fuels to power mobility
BIOFUELS HYDROGEN ELECTRICITY
Many Promising Replacements
Some better than others...
Fuel Cells, hydrogen Biofuel, wood Battery Electric, natural gas Hybrid Electric, full hybrid Battery Electric, US power mix Diesel Ethanol, corn Natural Gas Gasoline, conventional Battery Electric, new coal Gasoline, tar sands Gasoline, coal
Carbon Emissions Relative to Conventional Gasoline
Fuel du jour Phenomenon
Disruptive and wasteful
30 years ago Synfuels (oil shale, coal) 20 years ago Methanol 15 years ago Electricity (Battery EVs) 5 years ago Hydrogen (Fuel cells) 2 years ago Ethanol Today What's next? Electricity (Plug-in hybrid vehicles)
GOVERNMENT POOR AT PICKING WINNERS ... NEED DURABLE POLICY SUCH AS LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARD
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Design Features Based on lifecycle measurements Imposed on oil refiners Companies can buy and sell credits Advantages of LCFS concept Inspires innovation Robust/durable Life-cycle oriented Doesn't pick winners Encompasses all fuels: NG, petroleum, unconventional oil, biofuels, electricity, H2 Challenges Limiting leakage and gaming LU impacts of biofuels not yet well understood Integrating California LCFS with other sectors, states, and countries
CARB's Proposed LCA Numbers for LCFS
Gasoline Corn Etoh Calif Corn Etoh Brazilian Etoh EVs H2FCVs Cellulosic biofuel (draft) 96 gCO2-eq/MJ 77-105 (47-75 plus 30) 81 (51 plus 30) 73 (27 plus 46) 35-41 33-62 20-40 (incl iLUC)
Third Leg: Transforming Mobility (and Land Use)
In U.S. and abroad, we've created a transportation monoculture where "sprawl is the law." Many opportunities for innovation!
California Leadership on VMT Reduction
SB375 (Steinberg) targets reductions in VMT via
changes in land use, transit, and possibly pricing
AB32 also targets
High speed rail Goods movement improvements
Not all vehicle trips are "high value"!
Key Strategy: Expand Traveler Choice
Smarter, Cleaner, and Cheaper!
Source: ARB Scoping Plan, based on Rodier (2008)
Question of Will and Vision, More Than Cost
Consider hydrogen and fuel cells, which many
think is most expensive and difficult transition ...
$55 billion extra over 15 years for vehicles and fuels, to get to 10% market penetration (NRC/NAS, 2008)
Meanwhile, US spends ~$10 billion/year on
subsidies for corn ethanol
California GHG Policy Timeline
2002 2006 2007
AB32 early actions designated AB1493 signed (Pavley vehicle stds) AB32 signed
Early action regulations enforced SB375 signed Adopted AB32 scoping plan
Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
California's GHG (and Oil) Goals
California GHG Emissions (MMTCO2e/yr) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Historical Forecast Targets
The California Approach
the pioneer of car-centric cities is now (trying to) pioneer low-carbon transportation
Stimulate innovation in technology, behavior, institutions Target specific GHG reductions with broad array of rules and
Energy efficiency stds, Renewables Portfolio Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, etc
Overlay cap-and-trade program (and offsets) to create price signal for
carbon and to equilibrate costs across sectors (and gain additional reductions)
Cap and Trade is "Small" Part of Targeted GHG Reduction
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Reductions from C&T
Reductions from Regs
Regs and C&T
Dashed line is 2020 target (427 MMT).
Transportation GHG Policy in California (mostly within AB32)
Vehicles (cars and trucks) 39 MM tons
Light-duty vehicle GHG stds (Pavley I and II) ZEV rules Feebates? Truck Technology Aerodynamic design Improved efficiency for heavy duty trucks Hybridization of urban and short-haul trucks
Fuels 16+ MM tons
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
VMT and goods movement 5 MM tons ()
VMT reduction via land use, transit, pricing (SB375) Low-emission req'ts at ports, eco-driving, tire inflation, etc
Key Policy Questions
Future of California's Pavley standards (GHG/mile) in
California and nationally?
Future of US RFS and California LCFS? Effectiveness of SB375 VMT/LU policy initiatives?
Lesser Policy Questions ZEV program? How will it change and how aggressive will it be? Feebates and vehicle incentive programs? Will auto industry be transformed (bankruptcy) and how will that affect
rollout of advanced technology? rollouts, other?
How to support EV and H2 infrastructure? "Better Place," regional H2 Cap and trade vis--vis LCFS/RFS
Why Gov't Initiative is Needed
A Long List of Market "Failures"
Environmental and energy externalities Principal agent problem (rental cars, truck trailers, leased vehicles, cars for
legislators/execs) Network externality. Complementary products requiring large nonrecoverable investments and investments that cannot be made by individual consumers--such as when different vehicles or different infrastructures are required (H2, bike paths for biking, smart paratransit, etc) Technology lock-in Market power (cartels, oligopolies, etc) High entry barriers in auto industry R&D under-investment due to:
industry diffusion (ag industry) R&D spillovers. When R&D findings cannot be fully captured (leading to underinvestment in R&D) Learning-by-doing spillovers where mfg savings not fully captured
Consumer cognition (eg, buying cars), resulting in under-investment in
efficiency (related to information and loss-aversion) Volatile oil prices create uncertainty which leads to under-investment in alternatives
Ultimate Challenge: How to "Tame" Gasoline Prices?
Increased gas tax? Gasoline price floor?
5 Point Program to Transform Transportation
1. Increased R&D investments (and training of next generation of scientists and engineers)
Batteries, fuel cells, and lightweight materials
2. Accelerate advanced vehicle commercialization
Near-zero emissions requirement (California ... and US?) EU 50 g/km incentive Tax credits for hybrids, fuel cell, battery-electric vehicles
3. Performance Standards for fuel/GHGs
CAFE, California Pavley Law, EU g/km stds LCFS (to accelerate use of low-carbon fuels in vehicles)
4. Market instruments to align regulations with market
Feebates Fuel price floor (also reduces uncertainty and risk for automakers, alt fuel providers, and advanced technology entrepreneurs)
5. Reform institutions and realign incentives to reduce sprawl and VMT
Reform transport funding to reward environmental/VMT performance and stimulate investment in new mobility services Remove incentives for sprawl (fiscalization of LU, zoning, engineering rules)
It won't be easy ...
"We stand at a crossroads. One path leads to despair, the other to destruction. Let's hope we choose wisely."
I'm more optimistic despite much evidence to the contrary...