Demetra Growth Cycle Model

Demetra Growth Cycle Model

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Description: In this business model presentation shows Demetra growth cycle. Business cyklen i den primære og sekundære trend. Aktiemarkedet, Rentemarkedet Konjunkturcykler/Primære trend.

Konjunkturcykler/Primære trend, Sekundære Trend, Demetra Growth Cycle Model/Kvartalsbasis, Månedsbasis, Kvartalsbasis, USA/BNP/Demetra Growth Cycle Model, Konjunkturcykler, Bankernes renteforecast Renteparametre USA: Margin Indbetalinger Aktiemarkedet P/E værdier Deflation Aktiemarkedets Parametre, Leading Indicators for Bankinvest Asien, Formuepleje Penta, Skagen Global/US, Nordea Invest/USA, OMX, Investeringsstrategi Investin Demetran, Er du interesseret i bogen: Cycles, Business Cycles, Teknisk og fundamental analyse Investorpsykologi. Demetra Investeringsforening. Årets trend.

Prognose 2014, Øvrige produkter eller andet. .

 
Author: Anon (Fellow) | Visits: 1562 | Page Views: 1866
Domain:  Business Category: Sales & Marketing Subcategory: Forecasting 
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Contents:
Dagens program:
Business cyklen i den primære og
sekundære trend/
Aktiemarkedet
Rentemarkedet

Konjunkturcykler/Primære trend

Konjunkturcykler/Primære trend

Konjunkturcykler/Primære Trend

Konjunkturcykler/Primære Trend

?

Konjunkturcykler/Sekundære Trend

Leading, Coincident og Lagging Indicators
Figur 44

Kilde: Egen tilvirkning

USA: Leading, Coincident og Lagging Indicators
US I n d ex 1 0 l ead . I n d i c ators R ec essi on p eri od s
118
116
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90

1 0 7 ,5

1 0 7 ,5

1 ,0

1 0 5 ,0

1 0 5 ,0

0 ,9

1 0 2 ,5

1 0 2 ,5

1 0 0 ,0

0 ,8

Coincident

9 7 ,5

0 ,7

9 5 ,0

9 7 ,5

0 ,6

9 5 ,0
9 2 ,5

Lagging

9 2 ,5

0 ,5

9 0 ,0
0 ,4

9 0 ,0

8 7 ,5
0 ,3

8 7 ,5

8 5 ,0

Leading

88
86

1 0 0 ,0

8 5 ,0

8 2 ,5

0 ,2

84
82

8 2 ,5

8 0 ,0

80

0 ,1
0 ,0

2000

2005

2010

Demetra Growth Cycle Model/Kvartalsbasis

Demetra Growth Cycle Model/Kvartalsbasis

Demetra Growth Cycle Model/Kvartalsbasis

Deweys Growth Cycle Model/Månedsbasis

Dewey Growth Cycle Model

Recessions perioder ligger typisk under 105,00

USA/BNP/Demetra Growth Cycle Model

Konjunkturcykler

Figur 69

Konjunkturcykler

Figur 70

Bankernes renteforecast

Aktiemarkedets Parametre
USA: Business Cycle
Renteparametre
USA: Margin Indbetalinger
Aktiemarkedet
P/E værdier
Deflation

Aktiemarkedets Parametre
Top/Top gennemsnit 33 år

Bund/Bund gennemsnit 32,3 år

Aktiemarkedets Parametre
10000

Dow Jones Industrial - månedschart
17 år?

12 måneders gl. gennemsnit

4000
3000
2000

17 år

1000
17 år

400
300

17 år

200

17 år

1920

1930

1940

100

Shiller P/E
cyklisk
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

50
2010

Aktiemarkedets Parametre

Leading Indicators

Aktiemarkedets Parametre

Aktiemarkedets Parametre

Aktiemarkedets Parametre

Aktiemarkedets Parametre
S &P 5 0 0 S tock I n d ex M ovA v( C S P DS P ;1 2 ;1 )
1 0 7 ,5
1 0 5 ,0
1 0 2 ,5
1 0 0 ,0
9 7 ,5
9 5 ,0
9 2 ,5

1700
1600
1500
1400
1300

9 0 ,0

1100

8 7 ,5

1000

1200

8 5 ,0

900

USA: Leading Indicators og 12
måneders glidende gennemsnit

8 2 ,5

800

8 0 ,0
R S I ma( C S P DS P ;5 ;4 )

1 0 0 ,0 0
7 5 ,0 0
5 0 ,0 0
2 5 ,0 0
0 ,0 0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Bankinvest Asien: Leading Indicators
B n In e A n
a k v st sie

U In e 1 le d In ica o s
S dx 0 a. d tr
10
2
15
1
10
1
15
0

17
0 ,5
15
0 ,0
12
0 ,5

10
0

10
0 ,0

9
5

9 ,5
7

9
0
8
5

9 ,0
5

8
0
9 ,5
2
7
5
9 ,0
0

7
0

8 ,5
7

6
5

8 ,0
5

6
0

8 ,5
2

5
5

8 ,0
0

5
0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 00 01 02 03

Formuepleje Penta: Leading Indicators
F r u p j P na A S
o m e le e e t /

U In e 1 le d In ica o s
S dx 0 a. d tr

15
0 ,0
40
0

12
0 ,5
10
0 ,0

30
0
9 ,5
7
9 ,0
5
20
0

9 ,5
2
9 ,0
0
8 ,5
7

10
2
10
1
10
0
9
0

8 ,0
5
8 ,5
2

8
0
7
0

8 ,0
0

6
0
20
08

20
09

21
00

21
01

21
02

21
03

Skagen Global/USA: Leading Indicators
S A E G b lB C
K G N lo a IA

U In e 1 le d In ica o s
S dx 0 a. d tr

17
0 ,5
90
0

Leading indicators

15
0 ,0

80
5

12
0 ,5

80
0

10
0 ,0

70
5

9 ,5
7

70
0

9 ,0
5

60
5

9 ,5
2

60
0

9 ,0
0

50
5

8 ,5
7

50
0

8 ,0
5
40
5

Skagen Global

8 ,5
2

40
0

8 ,0
0

20
05

20
06

20
07

20
08

20
09

21
00

21
01

21
02

21
03

Nordea Invest/USA: Leading Indicators
No d a In e D n a k
re
v st a m r

U In e 1 le d In ica o s
S dx 0 a .
d tr
30
0

16
0
13
0
10
0
9
7
9
5
9
3
9
1
8
9
8
7
8
5
8
3
8
1
7
9
7
7
7
5
7
3

20
0

Leading indicators
10
4
10
3
10
2
10
1
10
0

7
1
6
9

Nordea Invest

6
7
6
5
6
3

4
7
19
92

19
94

19
96

19
98

20
00

20
02

20
04

20
06

20
08

21
00

21
02

OMX/Leading indicators
OM X C op en h ag en 2 0 I n d exM ovA v( OM X C 2 0 ;1 2 ;1 )
1 0 7 ,5
1 0 5 ,0

Leading indicators

500

1 0 2 ,5
1 0 0 ,0
400

9 7 ,5
9 5 ,0
9 2 ,5

300
9 0 ,0
8 7 ,5
8 5 ,0

12 mdrs. glidende
gennemsnit

8 2 ,5

220
210
200
190
180

8 0 ,0

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Investeringsstrategi Investin Demetra
1200
Investin Demetra

1000

800

600

400

Det globale aktiemarked

200
Benchmark (75% aktier & 25% obligationer)

0
03-01-1992

03-01-1996

03-01-2000

03-01-2004

03-01-2008

03-01-2012

1. Er du interesseret i bogen: Cycles,
Business Cycles, Teknisk og
fundamental analyse
Investorpsykologi.
2. Demetra Investeringsforening.
3. Årets trend. Prognose 2014
4. Øvrige produkter eller andet
mail til sjj@demetra.dk

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