2015, 2016 Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations; Per The Cowan LRA Forecasting

2015, 2016 Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations; Per The Cowan LRA Forecasting

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Description: This month's paper pesentss the recently updated 2015 and 2016 global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecasts based upon the recently published 1Qtr and March 2015 sales numbers as gleaned from the WSTS's March 2015 HBR. Note that a more concise format of the forecast numbers (presented in four tables) is provided. .

 
Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 651 | Page Views: 693
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
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Short URL: https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/docxEL1SE1J5ABYHF
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Contents:
WSTS Publishes Global Semiconductor Sales For March And 1Q 2015; The Cowan LRA Model Responds With Its
Monthly Update For 2015, 2016 Sales And Sales Growth Forecasts
Date of Write-Up: May 15th, 2015.

The four tables provided below summarize the latest forecast numbers and related results as derived by the
Cowan LRA forecasting model operating on the WSTS’s March 2015 global semiconductor sales numbers
published on their website.
As the second table shows both 2015 and 2016’s global semiconductor sales fell from the previous month’s
forecast numbers with corresponding drops in their respective sales growth expectations.
Updated Cowan LRA Model’s Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations
Time
Period
1Q
2Q
1H
3Q
4Q
2H

2014 (Final) 2015 Sales 2014=>15 2016 Sales
Frcst
Sales Grwth
Frcst
Sales
$78.445
$83.137
6.0%
$87.644
$85.761
4.2%
$89.795
$82.322
$160.767
$168.897
5.1%
$177.439
$87.699
$92.300
5.2%
$97.473
$87.377
$90.530
3.6%
$95.252
$182.830
4.4%
$192.725
$175.076

Full Year

$335.843

$351.727

4.7%

2015=>16
Sales Grwth
5.4%
4.7%
5.1%
5.6%
5.2%
5.4%

$370.164

5.2%

Notes - Sales numbers are $billions; Italicized numbers are Cowan LRA Model forecasts.
Sources: WSTS (2014 Final Sales) & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model, May. 2015

BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL's GLOBAL
SEMI SALES FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR 2015 AND 2016
MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

JAN 2014

FEB 2014

MAR 2014

APR 2014

MAY 2014

JUN 2014

DATE Of Forecast Update

3-07-14

4-09-14

5-12-14

6-08-14

7-10-14

8-07-14

$349.198

2015 Sales Forecast ($B)

$360.412

$358.231

$345.177

$347.616

$351.125

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (%)

----

-0.6%

-3.6%

0.7%

1.0%

-0.5%

2014=>15 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

6.0%

4.7%

4.2%

4.4%

4.6%

4.4%

MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

JUL 2014

AUG 2014

SEPT 2014

OCT 2014

NOV 2014

DEC 2014

JAN 2015

FEB 2015

DATE Of Forecast Update

9-08-14

10-09-14

11-09-14

12-08-14

1-10-15

2-10-15

3-12-15

4-12-15

MAR 2015
5-14-15
$351.727

2015 Sales Forecast ($B)

$350.807

$350.689

$347.239

$349.591

$349.574

$350.008

$367.889

$365.360

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (% )

0.5%

-0.03%

-1.0%

0.7%

0.00%

0.12%

5.1%

-0.7%

-3.7%

2014=>15 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

4.6%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.2%

9.5%

8.8%

4.7%

MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

DEC 2014

JAN 2015

FEB 2015

4.2%
MAR 2015

APR 2015

MAY 2015

JUN 2015

JUL 2015

AUG 2015

DATE Of Forecast Update

2-10-15

3-12-15

4-12-15

5-14-15

2016 Sales Forecast ($B)

$371.089

$389.915

$388.951

$370.164

5.1%

-0.2%

-4.8%

6.0%

6.5%

5.2%

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (% )

2015=>16 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

6.0%

BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF THE COWAN LRA MODEL's MOMENTUM INDICATOR
SEMICONDUCTOR
SALES
SALES
FORECAST

WSTS
ACTUAL

COWAN LRA MODEL'S
MOMENTUM
INDICATOR, MI *
-9.7%
3.0%
4.6%
-1.7%
4.4%
-0.2%
-5.9%
4.5%
1.3%
-0.6%
5.2%

DATA FOR:
MAR 2014
APR 2014
MAY 2014
JUN 2014
JUL 2014
AUG 2014
SEPT 2014
OCT 2014
NOV 2014
DEC 2014
JAN 2015
FEB 2015

EST. ($B)
$31.116
$24.857
$25.727
$30.696
$26.447
$27.807
$33.503
$27.777
$27.799
$30.051
$25.893
$26.563

SALES ($B)
$28.095
$25.595
$26.922
$30.184
$27.600
$27.760
$31.512
$29.018
$28.168
$29.879
$27.234
$26.205

MAR 2015
APR 2015 Est.

$32.853
$26.443

$29.784
TBD

Sources: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model and WSTS

-1.3%
-9.3%
TBD

* NOTE: MI = [(Column #3 – Column #2) / Column #2], that is, the percent
delta between the actual sales and the previous month’s forecasted sales.

Month-By-Month Tracking of YTD (Year-To-Date) Cumulative
Sales And Corresponding YTD Sales Growths for 2014 and 2015
YTD * SALES
(TIME FRAME)

2014 YTD * 2013=>14 YTD
SALES ($B) SALES GRWTH

JANUARY

$25.032

8.2%

FEBRUARY YTD

$50.375

13.9%

MARCH YTD

$78.445

11.3%

APRIL YTD

$104.040

10.7%

MAY YTD

$130.864

10.6%

JUNE YTD

$160.767

10.8%

JULY YTD

$188.429

10.5%

AUGUST YTD

$216.642

10.4%

SEPTEMBER YTD

$248.466

10.1%

OCTOBER YTD

$277.480

10.2%

NOVEMBER YTD

$305.964

10.1%

DECEMBER YTD

$335.843

9.9%

* => YTD - Year To Date Cumulative Sales

2015 YTD *
SALES ($B)
$27.276
$53.352
$83.137
$109.580

2014=>15 YTD
SALES GRWTH

9.0%
5.9%
6.0%
5.3%