Global Semiconductor Sales & Growth Forecast Expectations; Per Cowan LRA Model - 2016 / 2017

Global Semiconductor Sales & Growth Forecast Expectations; Per Cowan LRA Model - 2016 / 2017

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Description: Presented are the updated forecasts for global semiconductor sales and sales growth expectations looking out over the next five quarters, that is, through the fourth quarter of 2017. These latest forecast numbers are derived from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model using the actual sales numbers gleaned from the WSTS's October 2016 HBR, Historical Billings Report as published each month on the WSTS's website .

Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 524 | Page Views: 561
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
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Cowan LRA Model’s Monthly Write-Up For Forecasted Global Semiconductor Sales
Date: December 14, 2016
Subject: Updated Cowan LRA Model's Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations For 2016 &

2017 – Based On The WSTS’s October 2016 HBR Monthly Sales Report
Summarized in the four tables shown below are the latest, updated monthly forecast results for 2016’s and 2017’s
worldwide semiconductor sales and sales growth numbers derived by exercising the Cowan LRA Forecast Model.
These latest, updated forecast expectations are calculated employing the recently released October 2016 (actual)
sales numbers gleaned from the WSTS’s monthly HBR, Historical Billings Report, which was posted on their
website (URL = on Dec. 12th, 2016.
Table 1 (below) portrays the three most recent monthly data points for the model’s 2016 and 2017 forecast results –
including the latest update (THIS MONTH) plus the two prior month’s numbers thereby capturing the very near term
forecast sales and sales growth trend results.

The above table shows that THIS MONTH's global semiconductor sales forecast increased substantially - by $3.0
billion for 2016 and by $3.53 billion for 2017 - relative to last month's predictions with forecasted sales on a percentage
basis improving by 0.9% and 1.0%, for 2016 and 2017, respectively, compared to last month’s forecast predictions.
The corresponding year-over-year sales growth percentage improved to -0.5 percent (from last month’s -1.4 percent) for
2016 and jumped slightly to 4.7 percent (from last month’s 4.5 percent) for 2017, respectively, compared to last month’s
yr-o-yr sales growth forecast numbers. The DELTA row numbers capture the respective changes in both sales forecasts
(magnitude and percentage delta) and corresponding sales growth delta expectations (in percentage points) relative to
the previous month’s prognostications.
Table 2 (see below) details the actual numbers broken out on a quarterly, half year, and yearly basis for 2014 and 2015
along with the latest, updated 3Qtrs of 2016 actuals as well as forecast expectations for 4Q 2016 and all of 2017 including
both sales and corresponding year-over-year sales growth predictions. Note the 2H 2016 improved sales posture for the
industry compared to the 1H results. However not enough of a forecasted improvement in order to push the entire 2016
yearly sales to a positive sales growth result.

Table 3 (shown below) summarizes and compares the just updated Autumn 2016 WSTS forecast predictions with the
latest Cowan LRA Model's expected forecast sales and sales growth numbers as shown for both 2016 and 2017.

Finally, Table 4 (see below) details the month-by-month YTD (Year To Date) actual cumulative sales numbers and
associated sales growths for 2016 versus the corresponding 2015 YTD sales through October as well as 2014 to 2015
comparative sales growth actuals. It should be highlighted that the November 2016’s YTD sales and sales growth
numbers represent forecast estimates assuming an expected actual November 2016 monthly sales forecast of
$27.695B. Also included in the table is the updated full year 2016 YTD sales forecast expectations. These results indicate
that the full year 2016’s sales and sales growth estimates are projected to recover from the (actual) October YTD and
(predicted) November YTD levels thereby “reducing the gap” in the EOY yr-o-yr sales growth number by 1.0 percentage
point projected by the YTD forecast numbers as the year plays out. However, the forecasted 2016 sales growth
determined by the latest forecast model run does not recover to a positive yr-o-yr growth rate. But 2017, according to the
latest model run, predicts a moderate rebound to plus 4.7 percent (shown in previous tables). Moreover, November 2016’s
3MMA sales forecast expectation (normally published by the SIA at the beginning of each month) is predicted to come in
at $30.074B.

Actual cumulative global semiconductor sales for the ten-month time period January through October 2016
(according to the WSTS) totaled $276.3 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent compared to the same time period sales
in 2015. Projected January through November 2016 sales is estimated to total $304.0 billion representing a
decrease of 1.3 percent relative to the corresponding period in 2015. This expected result continues to show that
July 2016 sales signaled a turning point in the (cumulative) YTD sales trend which is positive news for the
industry based upon the lackluster 1H sales experience.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher / forecaster and creator of the
Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales.

NOTE – for more insight into the “workings” of the author’s forecasting model, the interested reader is
encouraged to check out the following two papers at the indicated URLs:

1. URL = (An Overview Of The Cowan LRA Model For
Forecasting Global Semiconductor Sales, Apr 27th 2014);

2. URL = (Forecasting Global Semiconductor
Sales By Exploiting Linear Regression Analysis (LRA), May 2nd 2014.