Latest Updated Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Forecasts For 2015, 2016

Latest Updated Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Forecasts For 2015, 2016

Loading
Loading Social Plug-ins...
Language: English
Save to myLibrary Download PDF
Go to Page # Page of 3

Description: The latest global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast results for 2015 and 2016 as gleaned from the Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) forecasting model are presented in the attached monthly write-up. These updated forecast results are derived from WSTS's February 2015 HBR, Historical Billings Report, published each month on the WSTS website. Included in this month's write-up are both the detailed forecast expectations along with a discussion of the forecast results.

.

 
Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 2265 | Page Views: 2339
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
Upload Date:
Short URL: https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/docxEL1SE1J5AGVLU
Loading
Loading...



px *        px *

* Default width and height in pixels. Change it to your required dimensions.

 
Contents:
WSTS Reports Global Semiconductor Sales For February 2015; And The Cowan LRA Model Produces Its
Monthly Update For 2015 And 2016 Sales And Sales Growth Forecast Expectations
Date of Write-Up: April 12th, 2015.

The WSTS recently posted its monthly HBR, Historical Billings Report, reporting global semiconductor actual
sales for February, 2015. According to the WSTS, February’s reported actual sales came in at $26.205 billion thus
registering an historical industry high sales mark for the month of February while yielding a 3.4 percent yearover-year sales growth relative to February 2014’s actual sales of $25.343 billion. The Cowan LRA Model’s
latest monthly update for 2015’s sales outlook fell from last month’s sales forecast of $367.889 billion coming in
at $365.360 billion. This latest 2015 sales forecast update was deduced from February 2015’s actual sales, as
posted (4-10-15) by the WSTS on their website, thereby yielding an updated 2015 sales growth forecast estimate
of 8.8 percent compared to the WSTS’s final 2014 sales of $335.843 billion. Thus, the model’s updated sales
growth expectation for 2015 decreased from the previous month's forecast estimate of 9.5 percent which was
calculated from WSTS’s reported January 2015 actual sales as summarized in last month’s forecast write-up (see
URL = https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AOJIO-cowan-lra-model-s-latest-global-semiconductor-salesforecast-expectations-for-2015-2016)

As mentioned above, February's actual global semiconductor sales (of $26.205 billion) came in slightly lower
than last month’s February forecast sales estimate of $26.563 billion as projected by the model, thereby resulting
in a 0.7 percentage point decrease in this month’s latest update to the model’s sales growth forecast for 2015.
February’s actual sales, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimate for February, likewise resulted in a
downward drop in the model’s Momentum Indicator, MI, to minus 5.2 percent when compared to the previous
month’s MI of plus 5.2 percent, thereby falling into negative territory. The following table displays historical
month-by-month tracking of the Cowan LRA Model’s MI from January 2014 to the present. Also shown is next
month’s (March 2015) actual sales forecast prediction of $32.853 billion.
SEMICONDUCTOR
SALES
DATA FOR:
FEB 2014
MAR 2014
APR 2014
MAY 2014
JUN 2014
JUL 2014
AUG 2014
SEPT 2014
OCT 2014
NOV 2014
DEC 2014
JAN 2015

FEB 2015
M AR 2015 Est.

SALES
FORECAST
EST. ($B)
$24.384
$31.116
$24.857
$25.727
$30.696
$26.447
$27.807
$33.503
$27.777
$27.799
$30.051
$25.893
$26.563

$32.853

WSTS
ACTUAL
SALES ($B)
24.789
28.095
25.595
26.922
30.184
27.600
27.760
31.512
29.018
28.168
29.879
27.234

COWAN LRA MODEL'S
MOMENTUM
INDICATOR, MI *
1.7%
-9.7%
3.0%
4.6%
-1.7%
4.4%
-0.2%
-5.9%
4.5%
1.3%
-0.6%
5.2%

26.205

-1.3%

TBD

TBD

Sources: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model and WSTS
* NOTE: MI = [(Column #3 – Column #2) / Column #2], that is, the percent delta between the actual sales and the previous month’s forecasted sales.

As displayed in the above table, February 2015’s MI fell significantly from January’s plus 5.2 percent thereby
reversing its trend by crossing back into negative territory. Thus February’s negative momentum indicator
suggests that the near-term, 2015 sales growth trajectory for the industry could trend downward from this month’s
latest forecasted sales growth of 8.8 percent.
The model’s latest sales forecasts and corresponding year-over-year sales growth estimates for the four quarters of
2015, that is, 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q, are provided in the table on the next page. As shown the updated sales numbers
are compared to 2014's final quarterly sales numbers published by the WSTS in their Dec. 2014 HBR. Also
included in the table are the quarterly sales and corresponding year-over-year sales growth forecast estimates for
2016 relative to 2015’s latest forecast results. The model’s 2016 sales forecast numbers shared here are derived

by extending the Cowan LRA model’s forecast horizon for an additional four quarters, thereby allowing the
model to project 2016’s quarterly sales and sales growth expectations. Consequently, the table shown below
captures an eight-quarter forecast outlook horizon reaching out through the end of 2016. Also included in the table
are 2014’s final sales numbers.
Latest Updated Sales & Sales Growth Forecast Expectations For 2015 & 2016
(Per the Cowan LRA Model)

The next table, shown below, tracks the month-by-month cumulative YTD sales and corresponding YTD sales
growth numbers for 2014, versus 2013’s corresponding results – as derived from the actual sales numbers
reported by the WSTS in their year-end December 2014 HBR – as well as tracking the corresponding 2015’s
YTD numbers.
Month-By-Month Tracking of FINAL YTD (Year-To-Date) Cumulative
Sales Numbers for 2014 and 2015 Compared To 2013 and 2014 Sales, Respectively

It should be highlighted that the WSTS recently published (March 12th, 2015, see =>
http://www.wsts.org/PRESS/Recent-News-Release) its latest update to its Autumn 2014 semi-yearly forecast numbers for
2015 and 2016, respectively, which are summarized in the table below.
WSTS / SIA Semiconductor Market Forecast - AUTUMN 2014 VS COWAN LRA Model’s Latest Update

The model’s actual global semiconductor sales forecast estimate for next month, that is, March, 2015, is projected
to come in at $32.563 billion which corresponds to a calculated three-month moving average, 3MMA, sales
forecast estimate of $28.777 billion. The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA as part of its monthly
Global Sales Report, GSR, press release which is expected to be released during the first week in May, 2015.
Finally, it should be highlighted that since the Cowan LRA Model’s forecast numbers are recalculated each
month, the resulting monthly forecasts do not sit still but are, in a sense, “dynamic.” That is, the updated forecast
numbers “evolve” from month-to-month since they incorporate, and thus reflect, the latest actual global
semiconductor sales numbers reported each month by the WSTS as the year plays out. The table below provides a
running tally of the month-by-month change in forecasted sales and sales growth expectations for 2015 covering
the last 14 months, namely, dating back to January 2014. Moreover, the last three monthly 2016 sales and sales
growth forecast estimates derived by the model are also displayed.
MONTHLY EVOLUTION OF THE COWAN LRA MODEL's GLOBAL
SEMICONDUCTOR SALES FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR 2015 And 2016

Note that with the publishing of the WSTS’s final, overall semiconductor sales numbers for 2014, the Cowan
LRA forecasting model’s linear regression parameters were updated to include the full complement of 2014′s
monthly sales numbers, and therefore incorporate 31 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales
numbers gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS)
organization. The necessary mathematical computations required to update the complete set of LRA parameters
embedded in the forecasting model were likewise carried out. Therefore, the newly derived set of the model's
linear regression parameters reflect 31 years (1984 through 2014) of historical, monthly global semiconductor
sales numbers and is the basis for predicting future quarterly and full year sales along with calculated sale growth
forecast expectations via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.
Mike Cowan (independent semiconductor industry market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model
for forecasting global semiconductor sales).
NOTE: For a high-level overview of the Cowan LRA forecasting model see the following URL:
https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AYLNT-an-overview-of-the-cowan-lra-model-for-forecasting-globalsemiconductor-sales.

For more insight into the Cowan LRA Model’s forecast methodology employing Linear Regression Analysis, LRA, one may
access an informational slide presentation which is viewable at the following URL:
https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/pptx-EL1SE1J5ABATH-forecasting-global-semiconductor-sales-by-exploiting-linearregression-analysis-lra.