Most Recent Cowan LRA Model's Forecast Numbers For 2015 And 2016

Most Recent Cowan LRA Model's Forecast Numbers For 2015 And 2016

Loading
Loading Social Plug-ins...
Language: English
Save to myLibrary Download PDF
Go to Page # Page of 2

Description: The subject paper presents the most recent "thinking" of The Cowan LRA forecast model for predicting global semiconductor sales and sale growth expectations looking out over the next seven quarters of 2015 and 2016. The latest forecast estimates are based on April 2015's actual sales as gleaned from the WSTS's recently published April 2015 HBR posted on their website.

 
Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 674 | Page Views: 729
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
Upload Date:
Short URL: https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/docxEL1SE1J5AJDGO
Loading
Loading...



px *        px *

* Default width and height in pixels. Change it to your required dimensions.

 
Contents:
WSTS Publishes Global Semiconductor Sales For April 2015; The Cowan LRA Model Puts Out Its
Monthly Update For 2015, 2016 Sales And Sales Growth Forecast Expectations
Date of Write-Up: June 10th, 2015.
Author: Mike Cowan (Independent semiconductor market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global
semiconductor sales)

The five tables provided below summarize the latest forecast numbers and associated results. These results are
derived from the Cowan LRA forecasting model operating on the April 2015 global semiconductor sales numbers
published by the WSTS and posted on their website.
TABLE 1. Updated Cowan LRA Model’s Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations
Time
Period
1Q

2014 (Final) 2015 Sales
2014=>15 2016 Sales
Frcst
Sales
Actuals/Frcst Sales Grwth
$78.445
$83.172
6.0%
$87.757

2015=>16
Sales Grwth
5.5%

2Q

$82.322

$86.415

5.0%

$90.330

4.5%

1H
3Q
4Q
2H

$160.767
$87.699
$87.377
$175.076

$169.587
$92.538
$90.701
$183.239

5.5%
5.5%
3.8%
4.7%

$178.087
$97.713
$95.493
$193.205

5.0%
5.6%
5.3%
5.4%

Full Year

$335.843

$352.827

5.1%

$371.292

5.2%

Notes - Sales are in $billions; Italicized numbers are Cowan LRA Model forecasts.
Sources: WSTS (2014 Final Sales) & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model, June, 2015

TABLE 2. LATEST WSTS (SPRING 2015) FORECAST VERSUS LATEST COWAN LRA MODEL’s FORECAST
W S T S FORECAST (SPRING 2015):
2014
2015 Est. 2016 Est.
O/A SALES ($B)
$335.843 $347.248 $358.924
Yr-O-Yr Sales Grwth
9.9%
3.4%
3.4%

2017 Est.
$369.587
3.0%

Cowan LRA Model:
2015 Est. 2016 Est.
$352.827 $371.292
5.1%
5.2%

TABLE 3. MONTHLY EVOLUTION OF THE COWAN LRA MODEL’s GLOBAL
SEMI SALES EXPECTATIONS FOR 2015 AND 2016
MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

JAN 2014

FEB 2014

MAR 2014

APR 2014

MAY 2014

JUN 2014

DATE Of Forecast Update

3-07-14

4-09-14

5-12-14

6-08-14

7-10-14

8-07-14

$349.198

2015 Sales Forecast ($B)

$360.412

$358.231

$345.177

$347.616

$351.125

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (%)

----

-0.6%

-3.6%

0.7%

1.0%

-0.5%

2014=>15 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

6.0%

4.7%

4.2%

4.4%

4.6%

4.4%

MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

JUL 2014

AUG 2014

SEPT 2014

OCT 2014

NOV 2014

DEC 2014

DATE Of Forecast Update

9-08-14

10-09-14

11-09-14

12-08-14

1-10-15

2-10-15

$350.008

2015 Sales Forecast ($B)

$350.807

$350.689

$347.239

$349.591

$349.574

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (% )

0.5%

-0.03%

-1.0%

0.7%

0.00%

0.12%

2014=>15 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

4.6%

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%

4.2%

MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

JAN 2015

FEB 2015

MAR 2015

4.2%
APR 2015

MAY 2015

JUN 2015

DATE Of Forecast Update

3-12-15

4-12-15

5-14-15

6-10-16

2015 Sales Forecast ($B)

$367.889

$365.360

$351.727

$352.827

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (% )

5.1%

-0.7%

-3.7%

0.31%
MAY 2015

2014=>15 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

9.5%

8.8%

4.7%

5.1%

MONTH Of WSTS Sales Data ===>

DEC 2014

JAN 2015

FEB 2015

MAR 2015

APR 2015

DATE Of Forecast Update

2-10-15

3-12-15

4-12-15

5-14-15

6-10-15

2016 Sales Forecast ($B)

$371.089

$389.915

$388.951

$370.164

$371.292

5.1%

-0.2%

-4.8%

0.30%

6.0%

6.5%

5.2%

5.2%

SEQUENTIAL PERCENT CHANGE (% )

2015=>16 Sales Growth Frcst Est.

6.0%

TABLE 4. BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF THE COWAN LRA MODEL’s MOMENTUM INDICATOR
SEMICONDUCTOR
SALES

SALES
FORECAST

WSTS
ACTUAL

COWAN LRA MODEL'S
MOMENTUM

DATA FOR:

EST. ($B)

SALES ($B)

INDICATOR, MI *

APR 2014
MAY 2014
JUN 2014
JUL 2014
AUG 2014
SEPT 2014
OCT 2014
NOV 2014
DEC 2014
JAN 2015
FEB 2015
MAR 2015

$24.857
$25.727
$30.696
$26.447
$27.807
$33.503
$27.777
$27.799
$30.051
$25.893
$26.563
$32.853

$25.595
$26.922
$30.184
$27.600
$27.760
$31.512
$29.018
$28.168
$29.879
$27.234
$26.205
$29.784

3.0%
4.6%
-1.7%
4.4%
-0.2%
-5.9%
4.5%
1.3%
-0.6%
5.2%
-1.3%
-9.3%

APR 2015

$26.443

MAY 2015 Est.

$27.383

$26.903
TBD

1.7%
TBD

Sources: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model and WSTS
* NOTE: MI = [(Column #3 – Column #2) / Column #2], that is, the percent
delta between the actual sales and the previous month’s forecasted sales.

TABLE 5. Month-By-Month Tracking of YTD (Year-To-Date) Cumulative
Sales And Corresponding YTD Sales Growths for 2014 and 2015

YTD * SALES

2013=>14 YTD

(TIME FRAME)

2014 YTD *
SALES ($B)

JANUARY

$25.032

8.2%

FEBRUARY YTD

$50.375

13.9%

MARCH YTD

$78.445

11.3%

APRIL YTD

$104.040

10.7%

2015 YTD *
SALES ($B)
$27.270
$53.343
$83.172
$110.075

MAY YTD

$130.864

10.6%

$137.458

JUNE YTD

$160.767

10.8%

JULY YTD

$188.429

10.5%

AUGUST YTD

$216.642

10.4%

SEPTEMBER YTD

$248.466

10.1%

OCTOBER YTD

$277.480

10.2%

NOVEMBER YTD

$305.964

10.1%

DECEMBER YTD

$335.843

9.9%

SALES GRWTH

2014=>15 YTD
SALES GRWTH

8.9%
5.9%
6.0%
5.8%
5.0%

* => YTD - Year To Date Cumulative Sales

May 2015’s sales forecast is predicted to come in at $27.383 billion (see Table 4) which results in a 3MMA sales
estimate of $28.038 billion. This latter number (3MMA sales) is normally reported by the SIA in a monthly press
release. Next month’s May 3MMA sales will be reported during the first week of July, 2015.