Global Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations For 2016 And 2017; Per The Cowan LRA Forecast Model

Global Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations For 2016 And 2017; Per The Cowan LRA Forecast Model

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Description: Presented are the latest forecasts for global semiconductor sales and sales growth expectations looking out over the next eight quarters, that is, from the first quarter of 2016 through the fourth quarter of 2017. These forecast numbers are derived by the Cowan LRA forecasting model operating on the actual January 2016 sales number gleaned from the WSTSís January 2016 HBR, Historical Billings Report. Moreover, with the closing out of 2015 sales the modelís complete set of linear regression parameters were recalculated by incorporating 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) of historical monthly sales numbers.

 
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Contents:
JANUARY 2016’s Global Semiconductor Sales Data Posted by SIA/WSTS; The Cowan LRA Model
Generates Its Monthly Forecast For 2016, 2017’s Sales And Sales Growth Expectations
Date of Forecast Write-Up: Mar. 11th, 2016.
Author: Mike Cowan (Independent semiconductor industry watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for
forecasting global semiconductor sales and sales growth predictions)

Global Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations For 2016 And 2017; Per The
Cowan LRA Forecasting Model
Provided in the three tables below are the latest forecasted global semiconductor sales and
year-over-year sale growth numbers for 2016 and 2017 as generated by the Cowan LRA
forecasting model.
These forecast expectations are derived from the recently published (March 10th, 2016)
January 2016 Historical Billing Report, HBR, posted by the WSTS on their website.
Additionally, with the recent close out of 2015’s final actual sales numbers, the LRA, Linear
Regression Analysis, parameters imbedded in the Cowan LRA forecasting model have been
recalculated in order to reflect 32 years (from 1984 through 2015) of monthly global
semiconductor sales as published by the WSTS organization (URL = http://www.wsts.org/TeaserLeft/Historical-Billings-Report).
Therefore, this month’s write-up presents global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast
expectations looking out over the next eight quarters, that is, from the first quarter of 2016
through the fourth quarter of 2017. These latest forecast numbers are derived from running the
Cowan LRA forecasting model employing the actual sales numbers gleaned from the January
2016 HBR, Historical Billings Report, as posted on the WSTS website.
Moreover, as mentioned above, with the publishing of the final, overall sales numbers for 2015
(as captured in the WSTS’s December 2015 HBR) the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global
semiconductor sales has been updated to incorporate the full complement of 2015′s monthly
sales numbers, thereby capturing 32 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales
numbers gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade
Statistics (WSTS) organization. The necessary mathematical computations required to update
the complete set of linear regression parameters that are embedded in the Cowan LRA
forecasting model have been carried out. The newly derived set of the model's linear regression
parameters therefore incorporate, and thus reflect, 32 years (1984 through 2015) of historical,
monthly global semiconductor sales numbers and is the basis for predicting future quarterly and
full year sales and sale growth forecast expectations by exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting
model.
For more insight into the forecast model the reader is encouraged to see the following article
posted on the WeSRCH website at the following URL = https://electronics.wesrch.com/paperdetails/pptx-EL1SE1J5ABATH-forecasting-global-semiconductor-sales-by-exploiting-linear-regressionanalysis-lra#page1.

TABLE 1 (shown below) reveals both this month's and last month’s global semiconductor sales

forecasts as gleaned from running the latest version of the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

TABLE 1. LATEST Cowan LRA Model’s Global Semiconductor Sales and Sales Growth
Expectations – High Level Numbers Comparing Last Two Month’s Forecasted Results
FORECAST
Period
LAST MONTH
THIS MONTH
DELTA

2016 Sales
Frcst ($B)
$347.566
$346.328
-$1.238

2015 => 16
Sales Grwth
FRCST
3.7%
3.3%
-0.37 %Pts

2017 Sales
Frcst ($B)
$373.510
$362.454
-$11.056

2016 => 17
Sales Grwth
FRCST
7.5%
4.7%
-2.8%Pts

Notes - Sales are in $ Billions; Italicized numbers are Cowan LRA Model generated forecasts.
Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (MARCH, 2016)

As the above table reveals THIS MONTH's global semiconductor sales forecasts dropped from
last month's expectations for both 2016 and 2017. The corresponding yr-o-yr sales growth
percentages likewise fell by the indicated percentage points for 2016 and 2017 as shown in the
DELTA row of TABLE 1.
TABLE 2 displays the detailed forecast numbers broken out on a quarterly basis for 2016 and

2017 revealing the sales and corresponding year-over-year sales growth forecast expectations.
TABLE 2. LATEST Cowan LRA Model’s Global Semiconductor Sales and Sales Growth
Expectations – By Quarter Forecast Results
Time
Period
1Q

2014 (Final)

2015 (Final)

2014=>15

Sales

Sales

Sales Grwth

$78.445

$83.108

5.9%

2Q

$82.322

$83.977

1H

$160.767

$167.085

3Q
4Q
2H
Full Year

$87.699

2016 Sales
Frcst
$82.280

2015=>16
Sales Grwth
-1.0%

2017 Sales
Frcst
$86.167

2016=>17
Sales Grwth
4.7%

2.0%

$84.720

3.9%

$167.000

0.9%

$88.762

4.8%

-0.1%

$174.929

4.7%

$87.377
$175.076

$85.232
$82.851

-2.8%
-5.2%

$90.551
$88.777

6.2%
7.2%

$94.542
$92.983

4.4%
4.7%

$168.083

-4.0%

$179.328

6.7%

$187.525

4.6%

$335.843

$335.168

-0.2%

$346.328

3.3%

$362.454

4.7%

Notes - Sales are in $billions; Italicized numbers are Cowan LRA Model generated forecasts.
Sources: WSTS (2014, 2015 Final Sales) & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model, MAR. 2016, For Both 2016 and 2017

TABLE 3, presented below, compares the latest WSTS forecast results to the latest Cowan LRA

Model's expected forecast numbers for both 2016 and 2017.
TABLE 3. Latest WSTS Forecast Numbers Versus Cowan LRA Model’s “Thinking”
W S T S FORECAST (AUTUMN 2015; UPDATED: 2-25-16*):
2014
2015 Act. 2016 Est. 2017 Est.
O/A SALES ($B)
$335.843 $335.168 $336.092 $346.450
Yr-O-Yr Sales Grwth
9.9%
-0.20%
0.3%
3.1%

Cowan LRA Model (Mar. 2016):
2016 Est.
2017 Est.
$346.328
$362.454
3.3%
4.7%

* The Autumn 2015 forecast was re-calculated by replacing the 4Q 2015 forecast figures with 4Q 2015 actual results

According to the Cowan LRA Model, February 2016’s global semiconductor sales forecast
estimate is expected to come in at $25.260 billion thereby resulting in a 3MMA sales forecast
estimate of $26.135 billion. This latter number (3MMA sales) is normally reported by the SIA in

a monthly press release -- typically one week prior to the WSTS posting its actual monthly sales
numbers. Next month’s February 3MMA sales should be reported by the SIA during the first
week in April, 2016.