Latest Update: Cowan LRA Model's Semiconductor Sales Forecast Expectations For 2016, 2017

Latest Update: Cowan LRA Model's Semiconductor Sales Forecast Expectations For 2016, 2017

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Description: The subject paper provides the latest bi-monthly write-up for the latest update to global semiconductor sales and sale growth forecast numbers for years 2016 and 2017 as generated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model. These sales and corresponding sales growth forecast expectations are derived from the recently published (July 11th, 2016) May 2016 Historical Billings Report, HBR, posted by the WSTS on their website. .

Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 555 | Page Views: 588
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
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Updated Cowan LRA Forecast Model’s Bi-Monthly Write-Up For Global Semiconductor Sales
Date: July 11, 2016
Subject: Latest Cowan LRA Model's Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations For 2016 / 2017

Summarized and discussed in the four tables displayed below are the latest updated global semiconductor
sales and sales growth numbers for 2016 and 2017 as derived by exercising the Cowan LRA forecast model.
These updated forecast expectations are gleaned from the recently published (July 11th, 2016) WSTS’s
May 2016 Historical Billing Report’s, HBR, sales numbers as posted by the WSTS on their website.
Table 1 (see below) captures the three most recent monthly data for the model’s forecast numbers for both
2016 and 2017 – includes the latest update (THIS MONTH) plus the two previous months thereby showing the
near term forecast trend.

The above table reveals that the latest (this) month's global semiconductor sales forecasts dropped by
approximately $1.6 billion from last month's expectations for both 2016 and 2017 with forecasted sales falling
-0.5% year-to-year. The corresponding year-over-year sales growth percentages declined to -2.1 percent and
rose to 6.1 percent for 2016 and 2017, respectively, compared to last month’s sales growth forecast numbers.
The DELTA row shows the respective changes in both sales forecasts (magnitude and percentage change)
and corresponding sales growth expectations (in percentage points).
Table 2 (see below) details the actual numbers broken out on a quarterly, half year, and yearly basis for 2014
and 2015 along with the latest, updated forecast expectations for 2016 and 2017 including both sales and
corresponding year-over-year sales growth predictions.

Table 3 (shown below) summarizes and compares the most recent WSTS forecast estimates with the latest
Cowan LRA Model's expected forecast numbers for both 2016 and 2017.

Finally, Table 4 (see below) details by-month YTD (Year To Date) cumulative sales data and associated sales
growth numbers for 2016 versus corresponding 2015 YTD sales and 2014 to 2015 sales growth actuals
through May. It should be noted that June 2016’s YTD sales and sales growth numbers represent forecast
estimates assuming an expected June 2016 monthly sales forecast of $29.724B. Also included in the table
(beyond June YTD) are the updated quarterly and full year 2016 YTD sales forecast expectations. These
results indicate that the back half 2016’s sales and sales growths estimates are projected to recover from the
(actual) May YTD and (predicted) June YTD levels thereby “reducing the gap” in the EOY yr-o-yr sales growth
number to -2.1 percent as indicated by the YTD forecast numbers as the year plays out. However, the
forecasted 2016 sales growth as determined by the latest forecast model run does not recover to a positive
growth rate. However, 2017, according to the latest model run, projects a strong rebound to plus 6.1 percent
(shown in previous tables). Moreover, June’s 3MMA sales forecast number (normally published by the SIA at
the beginning of each month) is predicted to come in at $27.174B.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher, forecaster and developer of the
Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales.
PS – for more insight into the “workings” of the forecasting model, the interested reader is encouraged to check
out the following papers at the indicated URLs:

1. URL = (An Overview Of The Cowan LRA Model For
Forecasting Global Semiconductor Sales, Apr 27th 2014);

2. URL = (Forecasting Global Semiconductor
Sales By Exploiting Linear Regression Analysis (LRA), May 2nd 2014.