The Cowan LRA Forecasting Model's Expectations For 2016/17 Global Semi Sales

The Cowan LRA Forecasting Model's Expectations For 2016/17 Global Semi Sales

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Description: Presented are the updated forecasts for global semiconductor sales and sales growth expectations looking out over the next seven quarters, that is, through the fourth quarter of 2017. These latest forecast numbers are derived from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model employing the actual semiconductor sales numbers gleaned from the WSTS's March 2016 HBR, Historical Billings Report. .

 
Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 601 | Page Views: 788
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
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Short URL: https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/docxEL1SE1J5AUZWY
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Contents:
Latest Cowan LRA Model’s Monthly Write-Up For Forecasting Global Semiconductor Sales
Date: May 11, 2016
Subject: Latest Cowan LRA Model's Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations For 2016 / 2017

Summarized in the tables below are the latest updated global semiconductor sales and sale growth numbers
for years 2016 and 2017 as generated by the Cowan LRA forecast model.
These updated forecast expectations are based upon the recently published (May 9th, 2016) WSTS March
2016 (and 1Q16) Historical Billing Report as posted by the WSTS on their website.
Table 1 (see below) captures the three most recent month’s data for the model’s forecast results for both 2016
and 2017 – the latest update (THIS MONTH) plus the two most recent back months thereby showing the near
term forecast trend.

As the above table shows this month's full-year global semiconductor sales forecasts dropped quite strongly
from last month's expectations for both 2016 and 2017 with sales falling -4.2% and -5.1%, respectively. The
corresponding updated yr-o-yr sales growth percentages, declining to -1.8 percent and 6.1 percent for 2016
and 2017, respectively, compared to last month’s sales forecast numbers. The DELTA row shows the
downward changes in both sales (magnitude and percentage change) and sales growths (in percentage
points).
Table 2 (see below) reveals the detailed actual numbers broken out on a quarterly basis for 2014, 2015 along
with the latest, updated forecast expectations for 2016 and 2017 including both the sales and corresponding
year-over-year sales growth forecast predictions.

Table 3 (see below) compares the latest WSTS forecast estimates to the latest Cowan LRA Model's expected
forecast numbers for both 2016 and 2017.
W S T S FORECAST (AUTUMN 2015; UPDATED: 2-25-16*):
2014
2015 Act. 2016 Est. 2017 Est.
O/A SALES ($B)
$335.843 $335.168 $336.092 $346.450
Yr-O-Yr Sales Grwth
9.9%
-0.20%
0.3%
3.1%

Cowan LRA Model (May 2016):
2016 Est.
2017 Est.
$329.181
$349.324
-1.8%
6.1%

* The Autumn 2015 forecast was re-calculated (updated) by replacing the 4Q 2015 forecast figures with 4Q 2015 actual results

Finally, Table 4 (see below) details by-month YTD (Year To Date) sales and sales growth numbers for 2015
versus corresponding 2016 YTD sales and sales growth actuals through March. April 2016’s YTD sales and
sales growth numbers represent forecast estimates assuming a predicted April 2016 sales forecast of
$24.951B. Also included in the table (beyond April) are the latest quarterly and full year 2016 YTD sales
forecast expectations indicating that the back half of the year sales and thus 2016 sales growths are projected
to recover from the (actual) March and (predicted) April levels in order to “reduce the gap” in the EOY yr-o-yr
sales growth to -1.8 percent as indicated in the YTD forecast numbers as the year plays out and presented in
the table below. However, the 2016 sales growth as determined by the latest forecasting model run does not
recover to a positive growth rate whereas 2017, according to the model, shows a strong rebound to plus 6.1
percent (see previous tables)

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher, forecaster and developer of the Cowan LRA
Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales.
PS – for more insight into the “workings” of the forecasting model the interested reader is encouraged to check
out the following papers at the following URLs:

1. URL = https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AYLNT-an-overview-of-thecowan-lra-model-for-forecasting-global-semiconductor-sales (An Overview Of The Cowan LRA Model For
Forecasting Global Semiconductor Sales, Apr 27th 2014);

2. URL = https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/pptx-EL1SE1J5ABATH-forecasting-globalsemiconductor-sales-by-exploiting-linear-regression-analysis-lra (Forecasting Global Semiconductor
Sales By Exploiting Linear Regression Analysis (LRA), May 2nd 2014.