"Updated 2016/17 Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations; Ala Cowan LRA Forecasting Model"

"Updated 2016/17 Semiconductor Sales & Growth Expectations; Ala Cowan LRA Forecasting Model"

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Description: Presented are the updated forecasts for global semiconductor sales and sales growth expectations looking out over the next six quarters, that is, through the fourth quarter of 2017. These latest forecast numbers are derived from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model using the actual sales numbers gleaned from the WSTS's July 2016 HBR, Historical Billings Report. .

Author: Mike Cowan (Fellow) | Visits: 423 | Page Views: 477
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Big Picture 
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Short URL: https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/docxEL1SE1J5AYSFI

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Latest Cowan LRA Forecast Model’s Bi-Monthly Write-Up For Global Semiconductor Sales Results
Date: September 14, 2016
Subject: Latest Cowan LRA Model's Global Semiconductor Sales And Sales Growth Expectations For 2016 / 2017

Presented in the four tables provided below are the monthly update for global semiconductor sales and sales
growth numbers for 2016 and 2017 as derived by exercising the Cowan LRA forecast model.
These updated forecast expectations are calculated from the recently published (September 13th,
2016) July 2016 Historical Billing Report’s, HBR, sales as posted on the WSTS website (URL =
Table 1 (see below) captures the three most recent monthly data points for the model’s forecast numbers for
both 2016 and 2017 – including the latest update (THIS MONTH) plus the two previous months thereby
showing the near term forecast trend.

The above table shows that the latest (this) month's global semiconductor sales forecasts increased $2.5
billion and $1.8 billion from last month's expectations for both 2016 and 2017, respectively, with forecasted
sales likewise improving by 0.8% and 0.5% year-to-year. The corresponding year-over-year sales growth
percentages declined to -2.1 percent and to 5.4 percent for 2016 and 2017, respectively, compared to last
month’s sales growth forecast numbers. The DELTA row shows the respective changes in both sales forecasts
(magnitude and percentage change) and corresponding sales growth expectations (in percentage points).
Table 2 (see below) details the actual numbers broken out on a quarterly, half year, and yearly basis for 2014
and 2015 along with the latest, updated forecast expectations for 2H 2016 and 2017 including both sales and
corresponding year-over-year sales growth predictions.

Table 3 (shown below) summarizes and compares the most recent WSTS forecast estimates with the latest
Cowan LRA Model's expected forecast numbers for both 2016 and 2017.

Finally, Table 4 (see below) details by-month YTD (Year To Date) actual cumulative sales data and associated
sales growth numbers for 2016 versus corresponding 2015 YTD sales and 2014 to 2015 sales growth actuals
through July. It should be noted that August 2016’s YTD sales and sales growth numbers represent forecast
estimates assuming an expected actual August 2016 monthly sales forecast of $27.233B. Also included in the
table (beyond July YTD) are the updated quarterly and full year 2016 YTD sales forecast expectations. These
results indicate that the back half 2016’s sales and sales growths estimates are projected to recover from the
(actual) July YTD and (predicted) August YTD levels thereby “reducing the gap” in the EOY yr-o-yr sales
growth number to -2.1 percent as indicated by the YTD forecast numbers as the year plays out. Note that the
forecasted 2016 sales growth as determined by the latest forecast model run does not recover to a positive yro-yr growth rate. However, 2017, according to the latest model run, projects a rebound to plus 5.4 percent
(shown in previous tables). Moreover, August’s 3MMA sales forecast number (normally published by the SIA at
the beginning of each month) is predicted to come in at $27.637B.

Actual global semiconductor sales for January through July 2016 (according to the WSTS) totaled $184.8 billion,
a decrease of 4.5 percent compared to the same period sales in 2015. Projected January through August 2016
sales is estimated to total $212.0 billion representing a decrease of 4.2 percent relative to the corresponding
period in 2015. This expected result indicates that July sales signal a turning point in the (cumulative) YTD sales
trend which is positive news for the industry based upon the lackluster 1H sales experience.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher/forecaster and developer of the
Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales.
NOTE – for more insight into the “workings” of the forecasting model, the interested reader is encouraged to
check out the following two papers at the indicated URLs:

1. URL = https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AYLNT-an-overview-of-thecowan-lra-model-for-forecasting-global-semiconductor-sales (An Overview Of The Cowan LRA Model For
Forecasting Global Semiconductor Sales, Apr 27th 2014);

2. URL = https://www.wesrch.com/electronics/paper-details/pptx-EL1SE1J5ABATH-forecasting-globalsemiconductor-sales-by-exploiting-linear-regression-analysis-lra (Forecasting Global Semiconductor
Sales By Exploiting Linear Regression Analysis (LRA), May 2nd 2014.