Semi WEEK: Stocks tumbled; Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle

Semi WEEK: Stocks tumbled; Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle

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Description: Chip making stocks tumbled in the last week of the year, but posted impressive gains for the year, beating the S&P500 by a significant margin. Happy Holidays to all and to all a good cycle . Safe Harbor Legal Disclaimer for our Holiday Greeting.

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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

December 30, 2016

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
The Chip Insider®
Strategy and Tactics: Happy Holidays to all and to all a
good cycle . .
Safe Harbor Legal Disclaimer for our Holiday Greeting

Semiconductor Stocks




Chip making stocks tumbled in the last week of the year,
but posted impressive gains for the year, beating the
S&P500 by a significant margin
Chip stocks had a rough week




Equipment stocks declined 0.4%






IDMs fared the worst amid Toshiba’s woes
Test posted a slight gain on the back of Advantest

EDA stocks fell 1.2%, in line with the S&P500
Electronic Materials slipped 0.7%
Hottest Stocks: SMIC, Advantest, ASML, Oerlikon,
BASF, and Samsung Electronics.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: Happy Holidays to all
and to all a good cycle . . .
VLSI wants to wish everyone a Happy Holiday
season. We’ve just ended a flat year for the
chip making industry, but a great one for
equipment. As for upstream drivers, PCs,
smartphones, and Apple were predictably
disappointing. Meanwhile, the economies of
China and the United States were in recovery
mode. As always, last year was notable by the
non-stochastic events outside the models.
Statistically, the second half should not be

merry, because for the Holiday ramp to occur
in the Christmas Black Hole, equipment must
be installed in the first half. But this was offset
for semiconductor equipment suppliers this
year due to China’s build out, the transition to
3D-NAND, and exchange rate fluctuations.
This made for an extraordinary second half,
with year-over-year growth expected to come
in at a whopping 22%. There hasn’t been
double-digit growth in the second-half since
2010, which leapt off the 2008/09 crash, and
2006, which was off the 2005 crash.

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Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

As for this year, there was no such
precondition to create caution in the first-half,
followed by a panic of greed in the second.
That makes 2017 a bit of a quandary.
With 11 months of data in, VLSI has
electronics down 2% this year, ICs up 2%,
with equipment suppliers rising 10%. As the
year closes we believe 2017 to be a strong
year. VLSI sees ICs coming in at +6% and
equipment rising +8%. Electronics, the
ultimate driver growth, should rise 3%. We
put this year’s Operational Flexibility
Requirement for equipment in a range of -7%
to +25% (last year’s range peaked out at
+12%). Hopefully Santa will bring us all a

New Year that beats expectations.
We trust you, your family, and friends will
have a well-deserved holiday and use these
times to bring everyone together. We
certainly wish you the happiest of holidays.
We treasure your support and confidence in
us and will do everything possible to be a
positive part of keeping our industry on track.
And don’t forget, there’s always next year, so
go for it!

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Safe Harbor Legal Disclaimer for our Holiday Greeting
Some of the information in this holiday greeting contains forward-looking statements
regarding future events, future charitable, and/or financial performance. Statements
that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements and involve inherent risks
and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by
phrases such as “Wishes,” “Merry,” “Happy,” “Joy,” “Let it Snow,” “Blessing,” “Peace on
Earth,” “Sending Hugs,” “Dreaming,” “White Christmas” or other words or phrases of
similar import. We wish to caution you that these statements are only predictions and
that actual events or results may differ materially. These statements are based on
projections made at the time of issuance and you should not place undue reliance on
them. The wishor does not undertake to update any of these statements in light of new
information or future events. With that in mind …
We wish you, on the terms and conditions of the greeting enclosed herein, a Merry
Holiday and a Happy New Year! From us ("the wishor") to you (hereinafter called "the
wishee"). Please accept without obligation, implied or implicit, our best wishes for an
environmentally conscious, socially responsible, politically correct, low stress, nonaddictive, gender neutral, celebration of the northern winter solstice holiday, practiced
within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or
secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions
and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions
at all... and a financially successful, personally fulfilling, and medically uncomplicated
recognition of the onset of the next generally accepted calendar year; but with due
respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures or sects, and having regard to the
race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith, choice of computer platform,
phone OS, or dietary preference of the wishee.















By accepting this greeting you are bound by the terms that:

This greeting is subject to further clarification or withdrawal.

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This greeting is freely transferable provided that no alteration shall be made to
the original greeting and that the proprietary rights of the wishor are
acknowledged.
The wishor warrants that such person is fully authorized to issue this greeting on
behalf of such represented Party.
The Parties expressly agree that the greeting herein is intended to be as broad
and inclusive as possible under the laws of the North Pole.
This greeting implies no promise by the wishor to actually implement any of the
wishes.
This greeting may not be enforceable in certain jurisdictions and/or the
restrictions herein may not be binding upon certain wishees in certain jurisdictions
and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wishor.
This greeting is warranted to perform as reasonably may be expected within the
usual application of good tidings, for a period of one year or until the issuance of
a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first.
The wishor warrants this greeting is only for the limited replacement of this wish
or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wishor.
Any references in this greeting to "the Lord," "Father Christmas," "Our Savior,"
“Santa,” “Saint Nicholas,” “Krampus,” or any other festive figures, whether actual
or fictitious, dead or alive, shall not imply any endorsement by or from them in
respect of this greeting, and all proprietary rights in any referenced third party
names and images are hereby acknowledged.
This greeting shall be interpreted, and the rights and liabilities of the Parties
hereto determined in accordance with the laws of the Artic. Any dispute in
connection with this greeting shall be resolved in a court located at the North Pole
in Santa Claus County.

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Poster Abstract

Deadline Extended
to December 5th

Call for papers at the 2017 International Conference on Frontiers
of Characterization and Metrology for Nanoelectronics (FCMN)
which will be held at the Monterey Marriott in Monterey, CA,
March 21-23, 2017! This is the 11th in the series of conferences
devoted to metrology frontiers for the semiconductor industry.
The conference examines the latest advances in characterization
and metrology, including beyond CMOS applications, that will
help shape the future of the nanoelectronics industry. This is an
excellent opportunity for you to participate by submitting an
abstract for a contributed poster, highlighting your
nanoelectronics research to an industrial audience. The abstract
deadline is December 5, 2016. Posters will be displayed in
separate sessions during the conference.
Abstract submission instructions are available on the website

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

The conference is organized via a
partnership between NIST, the AVS,
FIAP/APS, NSF, and SEMI.
For additional details, including call-forpapers topics, confirmed speakers, and
registration information please visit

the conference website.

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Nikon Technical
Symposium
LithoVision 2017 is the premier technical
event that brings together industry
experts with the objective of sharing a
global view of future lithography trends,
challenges, and innovations.
Prior to SPIE Advanced Lithography

Sunday, February 26, 2017
City National Civic
135 West San Carlos Street
San Jose, California, 95113

Space is limited, so register today!

REGISTER HERE

1:00 - 2:00 - Registration
2:00 - 5:30 - Technical Symposium
5:30 - 7:15 - Poster Session and Reception
As Nikon celebrates its 100th anniversary year, the milestone 2017
event will incorporate an excellent agenda featuring presentations by
distinguished representatives from Huali Microelectronics
Corporation, Intel, Tokyo Electron, KLA-Tencor, Mentor Graphics, and
Nikon examining the following topics:

Chipmaker Industry and Lithography Perspectives

Litho Drivers/Requirements and Nikon Roadmap

Enabling Production Beyond 7 nm

Integrated Metrology and Custom OPC Solutions

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISON
New: Intel at 10nm ... a with Mark Bohr of Intel
New: A tribute to Ken Schroeder...
VLSI's 2Q16 Review and Forecast Update
Tribute to Arthur del Prado of ASM...
Emergent memories and the new materials needed …
200mm fab capacity utilization reaches critical levels
Cooks Tour: IBM Research Semiconductor Group

weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSIresearch appears next @
• SEMI’s ISS

• SPIE Advanced Lithography
– Feb 26-Mar 2, 2017; San Jose, CA

– Jan 8-11, 2017; Half Moon Bay, CA
– Dan is presenting

• Semicon Korea

• Frontiers of Characterization and
Metrology for Nanoelectronics

– Feb 8-10, 2017; Seoul, Korea

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

– Mar 21-23, 2017; Monterey, CA
– Dan is giving keynote

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks tumbled in the last week of the year, but

posted impressive gains for the year, beating the S&P500 by a significant margin. Semiconductors -2.4%,
Equipment -0.4%, EDA -1.2%, Electronic Materials -0.7%. Hottest Stocks: SMIC, Advantest, ASML, Oerlikon,
BASF, and Samsung Electronics.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Semiconductor Stocks
IDM
Intel
Micron
Samsung Electronics
STMicroelectronics
Toshiba
Foundry & Subcon
ASE
SMIC
TSMC
UMC
Fab-lite to Fabless
AMD
Analog Devices
Broadcom

Price
Change

Forward P/E

-1.9%
-5.8%
1.1%
0.6%
-36.5%

13
8

21


0.0%
10.9%
-1.0%
-1.7%

11
16
13
15

-2.1%
-1.7%
-2.8%

227
19
12

Semiconductor Stocks
Cavium
IBM
Infineon
InvenSense
MagnaChip Semiconductor
Maxim
MaxLinear
MediaTek
Panasonic
Qualcomm
Silicon Laboratories
Skyworks
Texas Instruments
Xilinx

Price
Change

Forward P/E

-1.3%
-0.4%
1.0%
-0.6%
0.0%
-1.8%
-2.2%
0.0%
-4.1%
-2.5%
-1.9%
-4.3%
-1.9%
-0.3%

23
12
17
98
56
18
15

14
13
24
11
21
26

Chip stocks had a rough week,
tumbling 2.4%. IDMs fared the worst,
sinking 8.5% as Toshiba’s woes
weighted on the sector. Fabless stocks
slid 1.6%. Foundry & Subcon
bounced back from the previous
week’s decline with a 2.1% gain.
However, it was all driven by SMIC,
which was the hottest stock of the
week.
Altera ALTR AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI
ASE ASX Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM
IBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC
InvenSense INVN Micron Technology MU
Panasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor
MX
Maxim MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW
Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics
005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX Volterra
VLTR

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forward P/E

-1.9%
-1.6%

13
15

ASML

1.3%

KLA-Tencor
Lam Research
Nanometrics
Nikon
Oerlikon
Rudolph Technologies
TEL
Ultratech
Veeco Instruments

-0.6%
-2.2%
-2.6%
1.0%
1.3%
-1.5%
0.9%
0.5%
-0.9%

Equipment Stocks
Wafer Process:
Applied Materials
ASM International

Price
Change

Forward P/E

Test:
Advantest
Teradyne

4.3%
-1.2%


16

25

Xcerra

-2.4%

15

14
13
21


20

20

FormFactor
Assembly:
BESI
Kulicke & Soffa
ASM Pacific Technology
EDA Stocks
Cadence
Mentor Graphics
Synopsys

-3.4%

12

0.0%
-1.4%
-0.8%


16

-2.1%
0.1%
-1.5%

19
20
17

Equipment Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Equipment stocks fared better than the other
indices, declining only 0.4%. WFE stocks fell
0.5% while Assembly was off 0.7%. Test
posted a 0.2 gain on the back of Advantest.
EDA stocks fell 1.2%, in line with the S&P
500.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML
ASM Pacific 0522.HK Aixtron AIXG
BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK Cadence CNDS
ESI ESIO FEI FEIC KLA-Tencor KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX
LTX LTXC Mentor Graphics MENT
Nanometrics NANO Nikon 7731 Oerlikon OBH.SG
Rudolph Technologies RTEC
Synopsys SNPS
TER
Teradyne
Tokyo Electron Limited 8035
UTEK
Ultratech
Veeco VECO

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials' Stocks
Air Products
BASF
Cabot Microelectronics
DNP
Dow Electronic Materials

Price
Change

Forward P/E

-1.8%
1.3%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-2.1%

20
18
20

4

Electronic Materials' Stocks
JSR
Shin-Etsu
SOITEC
Tokyo Ohka

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Price
Change
-1.3%
-1.9%
0.7%
-0.4%

Forward P/E






Electronic Materials slipped 0.7%, ending a
seven week run.
Air Products APD ATMI ATMI AZ Electronic
Materials AZEM.L
BASF BASFY Cabot
CCMP
Microelectronics
DNP 7912 Dow
DOW
Electronic Materials
JSR 4185
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip
Stocks

Equipment
Stocks

Materials
Stocks

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

Equipment
Stocks

Materials
Stocks

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Up

Max Growth

Companies
Down

Min Growth

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

101.1
102.6
101.6
100.9
99.1
101.3
102.5
106.1
109.6
114.0
116.0
117.7
121.4
121.8
123.0
117.7
120.6
122.1
124.7
126.1
123.1
123.7
124.0
121.2
123.5
128.2
131.0
127.0
135.9
136.0
139.2
135.9

111.3
112.1
111.4
108.6
107.6
109.5
109.2
113.7
115.4
116.0
117.4
118.6
120.7
120.7
121.6
118.7
118.0
120.4
121.6
124.8
122.6
122.4
123.5
123.3
126.9
130.7
133.7
130.1
134.6
136.4
140.8
140.2

95.3
95.2
94.2
91.5
90.0
92.0
93.0
99.8
100.9
103.7
101.4
102.6
105.3
103.8
106.2
105.4
102.8
105.2
105.3
107.8
107.2
108.2
111.4
109.9
112.3
113.6
115.1
118.4
126.3
128.0
129.3
128.4

117.1
117.3
117.8
116.4
114.4
116.8
118.6
120.2
121.2
116.9
119.1
119.4
125.6
127.9
129.5
125.5
123.3
127.8
132.3
132.2
135.1
135.5
134.7
134.2
138.9
150.7
152.1
145.5
148.3
148.5
149.0
147.3

5.3%
1.5%
-1.0%
-0.7%
-1.7%
2.2%
1.2%
3.5%
3.2%
4.1%
1.7%
1.5%
3.1%
0.3%
1.0%
-4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.9%
3.8%
2.2%
-3.0%
7.0%
0.1%
2.4%
-2.4%

5.0%
0.7%
-0.6%
-2.5%
-0.9%
1.8%
-0.3%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1.2%
1.1%
1.7%
0.0%
0.7%
-2.4%
-0.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2.6%
-1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.7%
3.5%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.4%

1.2%
-0.2%
-1.1%
-2.8%
-1.6%
2.2%
1.0%
7.4%
1.1%
2.7%
-2.2%
1.2%
2.6%
-1.4%
2.3%
-0.8%
-2.4%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.0%
3.0%
-1.4%
2.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
6.7%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%

3.1%
0.2%
0.4%
-1.1%
-1.7%
2.1%
1.5%
1.4%
0.8%
-3.5%
1.8%
0.3%
5.2%
1.8%
1.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
3.7%
3.5%
0.0%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
3.5%
8.5%
0.9%
-4.4%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.2%

45
52
39
22
10
46
38
56
39
32
31
37
45
29
44
7
29
40
42
41
41
33
33
11
38
44
44
16
53
33
44
13

15.6%
28.4%
8.2%
5.8%
21.8%
14.5%
13.0%
12.6%
40.3%
17.5%
26.2%
17.2%
13.2%
7.0%
9.1%
5.5%
13.9%
10.7%
10.2%
11.8%
11.8%
5.9%
14.1%
14.7%
17.7%
30.3%
15.8%
12.6%
46.7%
10.3%
19.3%
10.9%

-13
-6
-17
-34
-45
-12
-19
-1
-17
-26
-25
-19
-12
-27
-14
-48
-26
-15
-15
-14
-14
-23
-24
-45
-17
-12
-13
-39
-3
-24
-11
-40

-13.6%
-8.2%
-9.6%
-10.0%
-13.4%
-5.4%
-8.5%
-0.5%
-3.8%
-11.0%
-9.0%
-16.2%
-3.4%
-7.9%
-5.2%
-21.5%
-6.1%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-9.8%
-27.1%
-10.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-11.8%
-6.9%
-10.7%
-4.2%
-36.5%

29.2%
36.6%
17.8%
15.8%
35.2%
19.9%
21.5%
13.1%
44.1%
28.5%
35.2%
33.4%
16.6%
14.9%
14.3%
27.0%
20.0%
13.9%
13.7%
22.0%
22.0%
15.7%
41.2%
25.2%
24.5%
35.3%
18.2%
24.4%
53.6%
21.0%
23.5%
47.4%

103.6
103.6
103.4
102.2
100.5
103.8
105.1
106.7
107.3
107.3
107.7
107.8
107.8
107.0
107.6
105.0
105.6
106.8
107.0
106.3
105.3
105.7
104.9
102.9
106.8
107.7
109.2
108.2
111.5
111.4
111.7
110.5

2.3%
0.0%
-0.1%
-1.2%
-1.6%
3.2%
1.3%
1.5%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.7%
0.5%
-2.4%
0.5%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.7%
-1.9%
3.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-1.0%
3.1%
-0.1%
0.3%
-1.1%

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close
27-May-16
03-Jun-16
10-Jun-16
17-Jun-16
24-Jun-16
01-Jul-16
08-Jul-16
15-Jul-16
22-Jul-16
29-Jul-16
05-Aug-16
12-Aug-16
19-Aug-16
26-Aug-16
02-Sep-16
09-Sep-16
16-Sep-16
23-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
07-Oct-16
14-Oct-16
21-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
04-Nov-16
11-Nov-16
18-Nov-16
25-Nov-16
02-Dec-16
09-Dec-16
16-Dec-16
23-Dec-16
30-Dec-16

Weekly Growth

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2016 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Conference Call Transcripts
December 30th
None this week
December 23, 2016 & Before
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) Management Presents at Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications
Conference (Transcript)
IDT's (IDT) CEO Shmuel Jonas on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Amkor Technology's (AMKR) CEO Steve Kelley on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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STMicroelectronics' (STM) CEO Carlo Bozotti on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Cypress Semiconductor (CY) Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Nanometrics' (NANO) CEO Timothy Stultz on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Samsung Electronics' (SSNLF) Management on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Texas Instruments' (TXN) on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Western Digital (WDC) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Apple (AAPL) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Ericsson's (ERIC) CEO Jan Frykhammaron Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) Lisa Su on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ASML Holding's (ASML) CEO Peter Wennink on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Intel's (INTC) CEO Brian Krzanich on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Intel Corporation 2016 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Slides
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Lam Research's (LRCX) CEO Martin Anstice on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Maxim Integrated Products' (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) CEO Mark Liu on Q3 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Micron Technology's (MU) CEO Mark Durcan on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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