Printed & Flexible Electronics, a market perspective

Printed & Flexible Electronics, a market perspective

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Description: In the next several years, the number of applications using printing processes for Flexible Electronics will grow. Market drivers for flexible and printed electronics are different, even though manufacturing processes and end applications share similarities.Main market drivers for flexible electronics are: The possibility to add new functionalities, Conformability for OPV (energy harvesting) . Conformability for OLED lighting (for the automotive industry), Robustness for small OLED displays (for smart phones & tablets) , The possibility to create new applications: Wearable electronics.

Flexible electronics is NOT meant to be low-cost, and usually uses expensive processes (MOCVD, evaporation). The main market driver for printed electronics is: Cost reduction due to high volume (roll-to-roll) manufacturing or by using fewer expensive manufacturing processes (MOCVD, evaporation):Potentially lower cost OLED TVs could be built if solution-based manufacturing is mastered and potentially low cost OPV could appear if technical challenges are leveraged, Up to 30% cost reduction. Example of Sensing Application: NextInput Touchscreen, NextInput ForceTouch is the integration of MEMS force sensors into flexible polymers.

This allows accurate multi-touch detection even under an OLED display. This touchscreen can be used with gloves on for example, and adds a 3rd dimension: the applied force. Example of Sensing Application: ISORG, Organic and Printed Electronic devices for large ...Please navigate Paper pages for more details.

 
Author: JC Eloy (Fellow) | Visits: 2648 | Page Views: 3202
Domain:  High Tech Category: Displays Subcategory: OLED 
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Contents:
Printed & Flexible Electronics, a market perspective
JC Eloy, eloy@yole.fr

© 2013

Yole Activities in a Nutshell
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Fields of Expertise

Photovoltaics

Printed Electronics /
Semiconductor
Manufacturing

Power Electronics

Microfluidic
& Med Tech

Advanced
Packaging
OLED, LED &
Laser Diode

© 2013

MEMS & Image
Sensors
Compound
Semiconductors

Sensing

Applications
Displaying

« Smart systems »

Lighting
© 2013

Energy generation

Functions vs. Flexibility DoF :
Techno Push vs. Market Pull Applications

CONFORMABLE
SENSING
DISPLAYING
FUNCTIONS

LIGHTING

*

Touch Screens
Smartphones/tablets
screens/FPDs
Automotive / Luxury OLEDs
ligthing

FLEXIBILITY DOF ("Degree Of Freedom")
BENDABLE

"UNUSED" FLEXIBILITY *

Smart clothes

Sensors (gas, image)

e-readers, smart clothes

e-readers

?

General OLED lighting

ENERGY GENERATION

Organic PV

Organic PV

Organic PV

SMART SYSTEMS
SUBTRATES

Smart IDs, thin film batteries

Smart clothes

Smart IDs, thin film batteries

* Or « contoured »

Market pull

© 2013

* Uses printing process

Techno-push

Application Landscape 2013-2020+
In the next several years, the number of applications using printing processes for
Flexible Electronics will grow.

2020+
2013
Flexible Electronics
Application enabling /
Function enabling
Flexible
PV

Flexible PV

Non printed

Electronic
Paper

Electronic
Paper

Printed

© 2013

Flexible Electronics
Application enabling / Function
enabling

Application Landscape 2013-2020+
In the next several years, the number of applications using printing processes for
Flexible Electronics will grow. Few examples:

2020+
2013
Flexible Electronics
Application enabling /
Function enabling
Flexible
PV

Flexible Electronics
Application enabling / Function
enabling
Flexible PV

Non printed

Systems on
Foil

OLED
General
Lighting

Conformable
OLED Lighting
Small OLED
Displays

Electronic
Paper

Electronic
Paper

Printed

Sensors
Large
OLED
Displays

© 2013

Touch
screens

Market drivers for flexible and printed electronics
are different, even though manufacturing
processes and end applications share similarities.


Main market drivers for flexible electronics are:


The possibility to add new functionalities:



Conformability for OPV (energy harvesting)





Conformability for OLED lighting (for the automotive industry),

Robustness for small OLED displays (for smart phones & tablets)

The possibility to create new applications:




Wearable electronics.

Flexible electronics is NOT meant to be low-cost, and usually uses expensive processes (MOCVD,
evaporation)



The main market driver for printed electronics is:


Cost reduction due to high volume (roll-to-roll) manufacturing or by using fewer expensive
manufacturing processes (MOCVD, evaporation):


Potentially lower cost OLED TVs could be built if solution-based manufacturing is mastered and potentially low
cost OPV could appear if technical challenges are leveraged


© 2013

Up to 30% cost reduction

Flexible & Printed Applications Market for the
Different Functions (US$M)
Flexible Applications based on PE Technologies Forecast 2012-2020 in US$M
© Yole Développement 2013
$1 000,0
$900,0
$800,0
$700,0

$600,0
$500,0
$400,0
$300,0
$200,0
$100,0
$0,0

2012 2013

Sensing
© 2013

2014

2015

Displaying

2016

Lighting

2017

2018

Energy generation

2019

2020

Substrates
Smart systems

2020 Market Share for Print, Flex, and
Print & Flex
2020 BREAKDOWN FOR PRINTED & FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS MARKET (TOT ~ $950M)

Printed & Flexible
33%

Printed only
56%

Flexible only
11%

© 2013

© Yole Développement 2013

Applications as % of Total Market Value in 2020 ($M)
Printed electronics market will grow with the opening of the flexible display market.
OLED displays will account for the largest % of the total Printed & Flexible Electronics market by 2020.
2020 MARKET BREAKDOWN FOR PRINTED & FLEXIBLE ELECTRONICS IN US$ VALUE
(TOTAL ABOUT US$950M)
Sensors. 5,8%
Printed & Flexible PV. 0,1%

Smart devices / system on
foils. 1,6%

Flexible OLED displays small
size. 2,3%

Flexible PV. 1,8%
Printed PV. 0,2%
Printed & Flexible OLED
lighting. 4,3%

Printed OLED display large
size. 28,9%

Flexible OLED lighting. 6,1%

Printed OLED lighting. 22,0%

Printed & Flexible OLED
displays. 14,9%
E readers. 12,1%

© 2013

© Yole Développement 2013

Example of Sensing Application:
NextInput Touchscreen
NextInput ForceTouch is the integration of MEMS force sensors into flexible polymers. This

allows accurate multi-touch detection even under an OLED display. This touchscreen can be
used with gloves on for example, and adds a 3rd dimension: the applied force.

© 2013

Example of Sensing Application: ISORG


Organic and Printed Electronic devices for large-area photonics and image sensors.



Converts plastic and glass surfaces into smart surfaces.



New generation of opto-electronic sensors with 3D product integration capability recognizing shapes and
form factors.

Large area organic electronics image sensors
© 2013

Applications and Market Segments of OLED
Displays

OLED Display
© 2013

OLED Displays


Two main categories:


Small displays (for mobile phone & tablet/laptop applications)



Large displays (for TV applications)



With different technology roadmaps & market drivers.



Main drivers include new features for small display (linked to flexibility) and lower
cost for large display (linked to printability).

OLED
display

OLED
display

© 2013

Small OLED Displays - Technical Challenges
• Main technical challenge in the short term: good barrier technology:
encapsulation materials are not so good on flexible substrates.
• Current solutions:
– Flexible glass  but still expensive
– Polymers and active materials  reliability?
– Multi-layer technology alternating polymers and getters  slow process.s

© 2013

Multi-layer encapsulation manufacturing process
Source: Vitex Systems

OLED Displays - Market Drivers


Large OLEDS  High cost but better image quality, lighter and thinner.



Several large players are involved in large OLED display
development, and in printed processes for those displays.


LG and Samsung start shipping non-printed products in 2013 (curved for
Samsung)



Panasonic and Sony started a joint venture for OLED TV production that should

Samsung curved OLED TV

start in 2014.


Material companies such as DuPont work together with device manufacturers to
develop efficient technologies for printed OLED TVs.



Samsung Galaxy Round (super AMOLED) & LG’s G Flex first phone with flexible plastic OLED
launched in Korea (to gauge market reaction ?)



© 2013

Samsung 3-side display YOUM, in 2014?

Applications and Market Segments of OLED
Lighting

© 2013

OLED Panel Acceptable Cost


Two major categories: luxury/design lighting (luxury luminaires or automotive lighting)

and general lighting.


Printed OLED will focus general lighting  cost is a strong driver.



Flexible OLED lighting will typically focus luxury & design lighting  cost is less
critical for these applications.

OLED for
lighting
OLED for
lighting

© 2013

Potential Advantages of OLED for Lighting

Thin

Lumiotec

Glare-free diffuse light
 Very low panel-toluminaire losses

Lightweight &
Flexible

Novaled

Transparent

Variety of sizes and
shapes

Broad color range &
Tunable color
© 2013

“Natural” lighting
due to area light

Comparison of OLED with Other
Lighting Sources
Incandescent

Fluorescent

LED

OLED

Efficacy

10 - 15 lm/W

40 - 100 lm/W

80 - 130 lm/W (cold white)
65 - 90 lm/W (warm white)

12 - 40 lm/W

Lifetime LT 70 (hours)

1,000 - 2,000

5,000 - 50,000

10,000 - 50,000

4,000 - 10,000

> 95

80 - 85

80 (cold white)
90 (warm white)

> 80

Heat generating

Linear or compact gas filed
glass tube

Point source high intensity
lamp (glare)

Large area thin diffuse
source - Can be flexible,
transparent…

Yes - But much lower
efficacy

Yes - But efficiency
decreases

Yes - But efficiency
decreases

Yes - And efficiency
increases

No

Yes

No

No

Switching time

Good

Poor

Excellent

Excellent

Tunable color

No

No

Yes

Yes

Environmental issues

Low efficiency

Contains mercury vapor

None

None

Manufacturing costs

Low

Medium

High

Very high

CRI

Form factor

Dimmable
Noise

© 2013

Comparison of characteristics of different lighting sources
Source: Yole Développement

OLED Lighting Panels - Not Adapted for
Retrofits


As an OLED is an area light device, the upgrade of OLEDs in existing luminaires would
be difficult and many OLED advantages would be lost by a such approach.



Therefore, OLED general lighting market development will be driven almost exclusively
by new lighting installations.
New
Installations

Retrofit Installations
Incandescent

Halogen

Compact Fluorescent

LED

OLED

Standardized part
Contrary to other lighting products including inorganic LEDs, planar OLED panels are not adapted for luminaire
retrofit
© 2013

Example of OLED Developments for
Automotive Lighting

Audi concept car using OLED panels (supplied by Philips) to create
rear lights, turn indicators and external decorative lights
Source: Philips

Specific OLED modular designs developed by
Osram / TUM for use as rear lights
Source: Osram

Automotive is becoming more sensitive to lighting design  natural path for OLEDs

“Carbon” concept car developed by Astron Fiamm, using OLED panels for interior lights and exterior lights (rear lights…)
Source: Astron Fiamm
© 2013

LED vs. OLED
Performance Roadmap Comparison
Whereas LED already has an efficacy of 128 lm/W, OLED is only at 67 lm/W… At middle / long
term, this gap will remain but OLED efficacy will be sufficient to enter several market segments.

© 2013

LEDs vs. OLEDs
Cost Roadmap Comparison
In 2012, there was a factor of 70 between OLEDs (~352 $/klm) and LEDs (~5 $/klm) at the cost
level… This should be reduced to a factor of 16 by 2020 (OLED at ~13 $/klm vs. LED at ~0.8
$/klm).

© 2013

Which PV Printed PV
Flex & Can Be Flexible?
The potential for flexible devices is determined mainly by the nature of substrate used.

Existing PV technologies and substrates used.
© 2013

Why Go “Flexible”?
Manufacturing

Potential for lower costs
due to Roll-to-Roll
manufacturing

Applications

More rugged applications (no fragile glass)

Lightweight applications

Small when not used
© 2013

Applications on curved surfaces

Flex & Printed PV
Technology push vs. market pull

Technology push

Strong!

Market pull

Weak!



Flexible substrates



Potentially low-cost manufacturing



Novel chemistry



Liberty of designs



Novel materials compatible with



New applications

flexible devices



Added value for existing applications



Novel wet-processable materials



Wet deposition of thin layers



Roll-to-roll equipment

=> Opportunity for many R&D and
industrial players, especially
material and equipment suppliers

© 2013

But






Tough competition with rigid PV
Low-cost manufacturing still to be
proven
Added value perceived by
customers?
Niche markets only?
High-margin/low-margin markets?

Surfing on the Hype
1990

2010

2000

2020

Legend:
Printed electronics
Flexible electronics
Polytronics (mixing
organic/inorganic ICs)
Interest and investments

2013: beginning of the
hype for polytronics
Start-ups start to be
created

2000’s: beginning of the
hype for flexible
electronics
Start-ups start to be
created
Late 90’s: beginning of
the hype for printed
electronics
Start-ups start to be
created
© 2013

2010’s: In the hype for
flexible electronics
Large investments in R&D
/ large investments in
start ups
2012: End of the hype for
printed electronics
Industry restructuration /
companies start to close

2005-2008: In the hype for
printed electronics
Large investments in R&D
/ large investments in
start ups

Final Conclusions


We believe Printed & Flex Electronics market could boost to be close to $1B by 2020 with a
27% CAGR.



But industry is still looking for high throughput, high resolution deposition techniques 
Industry needs to coalesce around 1 – 2 manufacturing techniques.



Printed & flexible electronics still struggling to lower costs enough to efficiently compete

with existing technologies (for example OLED displays vs. LCD screens).


To be successful, the main technical challenge in the short term lies in finding a good
barrier technology: encapsulation materials are not so good on flexible substrates.



Polytronics applications is a disruptive approach that could change the way printed &
flexible electronics devices will be manufactured.
© 2013

Yole Activities in a Nutshell
MEDIA

REPORTS

CONSULTING

News portal/Technology magazines/
Webcasts/Communication services

Market & technology/Patent
Investigation/Reverse costing

Market research/Technology
& Strategy/Patent Investigation/
Reverse costing

www.yole.fr

YOLE FINANCE
M&A/ Due Diligence/ Fundraising/
Technology brokerage

www.yolefinance.com

PARTNERS
www.i-micronews.com

© 2013