Photovoltaics Report

Photovoltaics Report

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Description: The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information. However, facts and figures change rapidly and the given information may soon be outdated again. This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr.

Simon Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner Warmuth (PSE AG). The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be grateful to receive any comments or suggestions for improvement.

 
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Contents:
PHOTOVOLTAICS REPORT

Prepared by
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy
Systems, ISE
with support of
PSE AG
Freiburg, 12 July 2017
www.ise.fraunhofer.de
© Fraunhofer ISE

CONTENT
 Quick Facts
 Topics:
 PV Market
 Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency
 Energy Payback Time (EPBT)
 Inverters
 Price Development
 Mounting examples

2
© Fraunhofer ISE

Introduction
Preliminary Remarks
 The intention of this presentation is to provide up-to-date information.
However, facts and figures change rapidly and the given information
may soon be outdated again.
 This work has been carried out under the responsibility of Dr. Simon
Philipps (Fraunhofer ISE) and Werner Warmuth (PSE AG).
 The slides have been made as accurate as possible and we would be
grateful to receive any comments or suggestions for improvement.
Please send your feedback to simon.philipps@ise.fraunhofer.de and also
to werner.warmuth@pse.de
 Please quote the information presented in these slides as follows:
©Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics Report, updated: 12 July 2017

3
© Fraunhofer ISE

Quick Facts
Parameter

Value

Status

Reference

Germany / European Union / Worldwide
PV market

1.5 / 7.3 / 77.3 GW

2016

BNA / IHS / IHS

Cumulative installation

41 / 106 / 320 GW

End of 2016

BNA / IEA+IHS

PV power consumption

38.2 / 114.4 / 333 TWh 2016

BP

PV electricity share

6.9 / 3.4 / 1.3%

2016

ISE / BP / BP

Worldwide
c-Si share of production

93%

2016

IHS

Record solar cell efficiency:
III-V MJ (conc.) / mono-Si /
multi-Si / CIGS / CdTe

46.0 / 26.7 / 21.9 / 21.7
/ 21.0%

July 2017

Green et al.

Germany
Price PV rooftop system

~ 1500 €/kWp

End of 2016

BSW

LCOE PV power plant

~ 8 ct€ / kWh

End of 2016

ISE&Agora

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
PV Market: Global
 Photovoltaics is a fast growing market: The Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of PV installations was 40% between 2010 to 2016.
 Concerning PV module production in 2016, China&Taiwan hold the lead
with a share of 68%, followed by Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia
(ROAP/CA) with 14%. Europe contributed with a share of 4% (was 5% in
2015); USA/CAN contributed 6%.
 In 2016, Europe’s contribution to the total cumulative PV installations
amounted to 33% (compared to 40% in 2015). In contrast, installations in
China accounted for 26% (compared to 21% in 2015).
 Si-wafer based PV technology accounted for about 94% of the total
production in 2016. The share of multi-crystalline technology is now
about 70% of total production.
 In 2016, the market share of all thin film technologies amounted to
about 6% of the total annual production.
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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
PV Market: Focus Germany
 In 2016, Germany accounted for about 13% (41.3 GWp) of the
cumulative PV capacity installed worldwide (320 GWp) with about 1.6
million PV systems installed in Germany. In 2016 the newly installed
capacity in Germany was about 1.5 GWp; in 2015 it was 1.4 GWp.
 PV covered about 7% of Germany’s electricity demand in 2016.
Renewable sources delivered about 33% of the total net power
consumption in 2016 in Germany.
 In 2016 about 20 Mio. t CO2 emissions have been avoided due to
38.2 TWh electrical energy generated by PV in Germany.
 PV system performance has strongly improved. Before 2000 the typical
Performance Ratio was about 70%, while today it is in the range of
80% to 90%.

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
Solar Cell / Module Efficiencies
 The record lab cell efficiency is 26.7% for mono-crystalline and 21.9% for
multi-crystalline silicon wafer-based technology. The highest lab
efficiency in thin film technology is 21.7% for CIGS and 21.0% for CdTe
solar cells.
 In the last 10 years, the efficiency of average commercial wafer-based
silicon modules increased from about 12% to 17% (Super-mono 21%). At
the same time, CdTe module efficiency increased from 9% to 16%.
 In the laboratory, best performing modules are based on monocrystalline silicon with 24.4% efficiency. Record efficiencies demonstrate
the potential for further efficiency increases at the production level.
 In the laboratory, high concentration multi-junction solar cells achieve an
efficiency of up to 46.0% today. With concentrator technology, module
efficiencies of up to 38.9% have been reached.
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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
Energy Payback Time
 Material usage for silicon cells has been reduced significantly during the
last 12 years from around 16 g/Wp to less than 6 g/Wp due to increased
efficiencies and thinner wafers.
 The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the
geographical location: PV systems in Northern Europe need around 2.5
years to balance the input energy, while PV systems in the South equal
their energy input after 1.5 years and less, depending on the technology
installed.
 A PV system located in Sicily with multi-Si modules has an Energy
Payback Time of around one year. Assuming 20 years lifespan, this kind
of system can produce twenty times the energy needed to produce it.
 The Energy Payback Time for CPV-Systems in Southern Europe is less than
1 year.
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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
Inverters
 Inverter efficiency for state-of-the art brand products 98% and higher.
 The market share of string inverters is estimated to be 42%. These
inverters are mostly used in residential, small and medium commercial
applications. The market share of central inverters, with applications
mostly in large commercial and utility-scale systems, is about 54%.
A small proportion of the market (about 1%) belongs to micro-inverters
(used on the module level). It is estimated that 2 GWp of DC / DC
converters, also called “power optimizers”, have been installed in 2016.
 The specific net retail price of all inverters in Germany is about 12 €-cents
/Wp. Central inverters tend to be cheaper than string inverters.
 Trends: New features for grid stabilization and optimization of selfconsumption; storage unit included in the inverter; utilization of
innovative semiconductors (SiC or GaN) which allow very high efficiencies
and compact designs.
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© Fraunhofer ISE

Executive Summary
Price Development
 In Germany prices for a typical 10 to 100 kWp PV rooftop-system were
around 14,000 €/kWp in 1990. At the end of 2016, such systems cost
about 1,270 €/kWp. This is a net-price regression of about 90% over a
period of 25 years and is equivalent to an annual compound average
price reduction rate of 9% .
 The Experience Curve – also called Learning Curve - shows that in the last
36 years the module price decreased by 24% with each doubling of the
cumulated module production. Cost reductions result from economies of
scale and technological improvements.

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© Fraunhofer ISE

1. PV Market

 By region
 By technology

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© Fraunhofer ISE

© Fraunhofer ISE

PV Module Production by Region 1997-2016
Percentage of Total MWp Produced

Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

PV Industry Production by Region (2005-2016)
Global Annual Production

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Global Cumulative PV Installation until 2016
(includes off-grid)

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

14
© Fraunhofer ISE

Global Cumulative PV Installation by Region
Status 2016

The
total
cumulative
installations amounted to
320 GWp at the end 2016.
All percentages are related
to total global installations,
including off-grid systems.

Data: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Number of PV Systems Annually Installed in Germany
Percentage of Annual Capacity

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: up to 2008: extrapolation from utilities data; since 2009: Bundesnetzagentur. Graph: PSE AG 2017

16
© Fraunhofer ISE

Electrical Capacity of Renewable Energy Sources
Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

In 2016 about 32% of the electricity in Germany was generated by renewable energy (RE)
sources according to BMWi.
Data: BMWi / AGEE-Stat.; Data up to 2012: BMU, BDEW. Graph: PSE AG 2017

17
© Fraunhofer ISE

PV Energy Generated and Resulting CO2 Avoided Emissions
Germany

 In 2016 ca. 22 Mio. t of
CO2 emissions were
avoided due to 38.2
TWh PV electricity
consumed in Germany.

© Fraunhofer ISE

 According to the
Federal Environmental
Ageny (UBA) the CO2
avoidance factor of PV
is 580 grams of CO2-eq
/kWhel.

Data: BMU, BDEW, BMWi, Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) 2017. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Annual PV Production by Technology
Worldwide (in GWp)
About 75* GWp PV module production
in 2016
2015

Thin film
2010
© Fraunhofer ISE

Mono-Si
Multi-Si

2005

2
0
0
0

*2016 production numbers reported by
different analysts vary between 70 and 82
GWp. We estimate that total PV module
production is realistically around 75 GWp
for 2016.

2000
Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

PV Production by Technology
Percentage of Global Annual Production
Production 2016 (GWp)
Thin film

4.9

Multi-Si

57.5

Mono-Si

20.2

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS (Mono-/Multi- proportion from cell production). Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Market Share of Thin-Film Technologies
Percentage of Total Global PV Production

© Fraunhofer ISE

Production 2016 (GWp)
Cd-Te

3.1

a-Si

0.5

CI(G)S

1.3

Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Thin-Film Technologies:
Annual Global PV Module Production

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2000 to 2010: Navigant; from 2011: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

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© Fraunhofer ISE

120

HCPV
LCPV

100
80
60
40
20

© Fraunhofer ISE

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0
2002

Yearly Installed CPV Capacity [MW]

Low and High Concentrator PV Systems (LCPV/HCPV)
Yearly Installed Capacity

LCPV and HCPV have concentration factors below 100 suns and from 300
Data: ISE 2017
up to 1000 suns, respectively.
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© Fraunhofer ISE

For more details on CPV see ISE/NREL Report: Current Status of
Concentrator Photovoltaics (CPV) Technology

2. Solar Cells / Modules / System Efficiency

 Development in the PV Industry
 Development in the Laboratories
 High Concentration Photovoltaics (HCPV)
 Performance Ratio (PR)

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Efficiency Comparison of Technologies:
Best Lab Cells vs. Best Lab Modules

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: Green et al.: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 50), Progress in PV: Research and Applications 2017. Graph: PSE AG 2017

25
© Fraunhofer ISE

Development of Laboratory Solar Cell Efficiencies

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Versions 1-50), Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 1993-2017. Graph: Fraunhofer ISE 2017

26
© Fraunhofer ISE

Current Efficiencies of Selected Commercial PV Modules
Sorted by Bulk Material, Cell Concept and Efficiency
24

n-type

Total area module efficiency (%)

22
20

Thin
Film

p-type
Al-BSF / PERX

HJT / IBC
Cz-Si

mc-Si

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

© Fraunhofer ISE

0

Note: Exemplary overview without claim to completeness; Selection is primarily based on modules with highest efficiency of their class and proprietary cell concepts
produced by vertically integrated PV cell and module manufacturers; Graph: Jochen Rentsch, Fraunhofer ISE. Source: Company product data sheets. Last update: Nov. 2015.

27
© Fraunhofer ISE

High Concentration Photovoltaics (HCPV)
Specific Aspects and Efficiencies
 HCPV is suitable for areas with
high direct normal irradiance
 Concentrating optics are used to
focus the light on small solar cells
 Concentration levels above 400
suns have become standard
 Various designs of HCPV systems
are commercially available
 High efficiencies are
achieved (see table)
**For more details on CPV see ISE/NREL Report:
Current Status of Concentrator Photovoltaics
(CPV) Technology

Efficiencies

Lab Record

Commercial

Solar Cell

46.0 % (ISE, Soitec, CEA)

38-43%

Minimodule

43.4% (ISE)

N.A.

Module

38.9% (Soitec)

27-33%

System (AC)

N.A.

25-29%

Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Progress in Photovoltaics

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Performance Ratio Development for PV Systems
Germany

In the 1990’s
 Typical PR ~70 %
 Widely ranging PR
values
Today
 Typical PR ~80-90 %
© Fraunhofer ISE

 Less variance in PR
as compared to
1990’s

Source: Fraunhofer ISE “1000 Dächer Jahresbericht“ 1994 and 1997; 2011 system evaluation

29
© Fraunhofer ISE

3. Energy Payback Time (EPBT)

 Silicon usage, wafer thickness and kerf loss for c-Si
 EPBT: Development and comparison

30
© Fraunhofer ISE

c-Si Solar Cell Development
Wafer Thickness [μm] & Silicon Usage [g/Wp]

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: until 2012: EU PV Technology Platform Strategic Research Agenda, from 2012: ITRPV 2015; ISE 2016 without recycling of Si. Graph: PSE AG 2017

31
© Fraunhofer ISE

Historic Trend in Energy Payback Time of Crystalline
Silicon PV Modules
Depending on the
technology and location
of the PV system, the
EPBT today ranges from
0.7 to 2 years.
Rooftop PV systems
produce net clean
electricity for approx.
95 % of their lifetime,
assuming a life span of
30 years or more.

EPBT of multicrystalline PV rooftop
systems installed in Southern Europe*

*Irradiation: 1700 kWh/m²/a at an optimized tilt angle

Data: EPIA Sustainability Working Group Fact Sheet 2011; since 2010: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Graph: PSE AG 2014

32
© Fraunhofer ISE

Energy Pay-Back Time for PV and CPV Systems
Different Technologies located in Catania, Sicily, Italy
Global Irrad.: 1925 kWh/m²/yr, Direct Normal Irrad.: 1794 kWh/m²/yr

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013; CPV data: “Environmental Sustainability of Concentrator PV Systems: Preliminary LCA Results of
the Apollon Project“ 5th World Conference on PV Energy Conversion. Valencia, Spain, 6-10 September 2010. Graph: PSE AG 2014

33
© Fraunhofer ISE

Energy Pay-Back Time of Rooftop PV Systems
Different Technologies located in Germany
Global Irrad.: 1000 kWh/m²/yr

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Graph: PSE AG 2014

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© Fraunhofer ISE

Energy Pay-Back Time of Multicrystalline Silicon PV
Rooftop Systems - Geographical Comparison
Irradiation (kWh/m²/a)

EPBT

2200
Data: M.J. de Wild-Scholten 2013. Image: JRC European Commision. Graph: PSE AG 2014 (Modified scale with updated data from PSE AG and FraunhoferISE)

35
© Fraunhofer ISE

4. Inverters

 Inverter/Converter Price
 Inverter Concept Comparison

36
© Fraunhofer ISE

Inverter/Converter Market 2016

Inverter /
Converter

Power

Efficiency

Market
Share
(Estimated)

String Inverters

up to 100 kWp

up to 98%

~ 42%

• 7 - 20 €-cents /Wp
• Easy to replace

Central Inverters

More than 100 kWp

up to 98.5%

~ 54%

• ~ 6 €-cents /Wp
• High reliability
• Often sold only together with
service contract

Micro-Inverters

Module Power
Range

90%-95%

~ 1%

• ~ 33 €-cents /Wp
• Ease-of-replacement concerns

DC / DC
Converters
(Power
Optimizer)

Module Power
Range

up to 98.8%

~ 3%

• ~ 9 €-cents /Wp
• Ease-of-replacement concerns
• Output is DC with optimized
current
• Still a DC / AC inverter is needed
• ~ 2 GWp installed in 2016

Remarks

Data: IHS 2016. Remarks: Fraunhofer ISE 2017. Graph: PSE AG 2017

37
© Fraunhofer ISE

5. Price Development

 Electricity costs
 Costs for rooftop systems
 Market incentives in Germany
 Price Learning Curve

38
© Fraunhofer ISE

Electricity Costs and Feed-In Tariffs (FIT) in Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: BMU, EEG 2014 and BMWi Energiedaten. Design: B. Burger - Fraunhofer ISE , Update: 04 July 2017

39
© Fraunhofer ISE

Investment for Small Rooftop PV Systems in Relation to
Market Development and Subsidy Schemes in Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: BSW-Solar, BNA. Graph: PSE AG 2017

40
© Fraunhofer ISE

Average Price for PV Rooftop Systems in Germany
(10kWp - 100kWp)

BOS incl. Inverter

Modules

Percentage of
the Total Cost
© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG 2017

41
© Fraunhofer ISE

Price Learning Curve
Includes all Commercially Available PV Technologies

Learning Rate:
Each time the
cumulative production
doubled, the price
went down by 24 %
for the last 36 years.

© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 1980 to 2010 estimation from different sources : Strategies Unlimited, Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011 to 2016: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

42
© Fraunhofer ISE

Price Learning Curve by Technology
Cumulative Production up to Q4. 2016
Estimated cumulative production
up to Q4, 2016 :
c-Si
Thin Film

312 GWp
29 GWp

Crystalline Technology
(from Q2-2006 to Q4-2016) LR 29
Thin Film Technology
(from Q2-2006 to Q4-2016) LR 25
© Fraunhofer ISE

Data: from 2006 to 2010 estimation from different sources : Navigant Consulting, EUPD, pvXchange; from 2011 to 2016: IHS. Graph: PSE AG 2017

43
© Fraunhofer ISE

Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out
with contributions from:
Name

Institution

Bruno Burger

ISE

Klaus Kiefer

ISE

Christoph Kost

ISE

Sebastian Nold

ISE

Simon Philipps

ISE

Ralf Preu

ISE

Jochen Rentsch

ISE

Thomas Schlegl

ISE

Gerhard Stryi-Hipp

ISE

Gerhard Willeke

ISE

Harry Wirth

ISE

Ingo Brucker

PSE

Andreas Häberle

PSE

Werner Warmuth

PSE

44
© Fraunhofer ISE

The information provided in this
‚Photovoltaics Report‘ is very concise by its
nature and the purpose is to provide a
rough overview about the Solar PV market,
the technology and environmental impact.
There are many more aspects and further
details can be provided by Fraunhofer ISE.
Please contact us if you are interested in
ordering this service.
simon.philipps@ise.fraunhofer.de
werner.warmuth@pse.de