Will Compound Semiconductors Support 200mm And Less Wafer Business?

Will Compound Semiconductors Support 200mm And Less Wafer Business?

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Description: GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious. We believe that companies that are committed to the technology will eventually make it work (Toshiba or, to a lesser extend, Samsung) but we are skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs.

sapphire that would be significant enough to trigger a massive industry platform transition from sapphire to the silicon substrate. The decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of cost of ownership to start promoting adoption of GaN-On-GaN. Companies committed to the technology will be successful in the various niches that benefit from high lumen density.

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Author: Yole Developpement (Fellow) | Visits: 403 | Page Views: 625
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors 
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Contents:
From Technologies to Market

Will Compound
Semiconductors
Support 200mm
and less wafer
business?

© 2016

FIELDS OF EXPERTISE
Yole Développement’s 30 analysts operate in the following areas
Imaging

Photonics

MEMS &
Sensors

MedTech

Compound
Semi – LED
& OLEDs

Manufacturing

Displays

Power
Electronics

Advanced Packaging
Batteries / Energy
Management

©2016 | www.yole.fr | About Yole Développement

2

A GROUP OF COMPANIES
M&A operations
Due diligences
www.yolefinance.com

Innovation and business maker
www.bmorpho.com

Market,
technology and
strategy
consulting
www.yole.fr

Manufacturing costs analysis
Teardown and reverse engineering
Cost simulation tools
www.systemplus.fr

IP analysis
Patent assessment
www.knowmade.fr

3

Introduction

A LOT OF SYNERGIES IN BETWEEN III-IV MATERIALS
LED

GaN/Sapphire*

GaN/SiC

RF GaN

GaN/Si**

GaN/SiC*

Power Electronics

GaN/GaN***

GaN/Si**

GaN/Si**

SiC/SiC**

Si/Si*

*: Mainstream
**: Challenger
***:R&D

GaN
SiC
Si
Sapphire

Do you see synergies and Business Opportuities?

Integration
Issues

New
Materials
New
Business

New
Supplier

New
Entrant
Growing
Markets

Due
Dilligences

Supply
Chain
New
Packaging

M&A

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

5

PLAYGROUND
LED

RF GaN

Organisations

GaN / SiC

GaN / SiC Material

Power Electronics

Related Material

Related Equipment

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

6

LEDs

SAPPHIRE INDUSTRY GROWTH DRIVERS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Gems and Watches

Industry and specialty electronic

1892
First artificial
ruby and sapphire
by Auguste
Verneuil

1929

First watch with a
sapphire window

1960
Development of larger
and shaped sapphire
crystals for industrial and
military applications

1970
First wafers
developed for Silicon
On Sapphire
applications
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

8

SAPPHIRE INDUSTRY GROWTH DRIVERS: HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
“LED Era”

Consumer Electronic Era?

1992

2000

First blue
LED on
sapphire
substrates

First LED
growth cycle:
mobile
applications

2010
Second LED cycle:
LCD TVs 
Sapphire shortage

2012
Softer LED growth +
sapphire excess
investment
Sapphire excess capacity

2014
Consumer Electronic
Applications (Camera lens
and fingerprint reader covers,
display covers…)

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

9

SAPPHIRE APPLICATION BREAKDOWN
Cell Phone
Cover Glass

Smartwatch
Cover Glass

Non LED
applications
now represent
close to 30%
of the total
sapphire
material
consumption
and are
growing
quickly.

Huawei

Kyocera

Optical Wafers

Total:
134M mm
of TIE

LED

2015 Material Consumption Breakdown Per Applications.
(Note: excludes traditional watches, aerospace, defense etc…)

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

10

SAPPHIRE WAFER FORECAST
• Revenue from wafers increased
17% in 2014 thanks to a
significant volume increase and
relatively stable average selling
prices compared to 2013.

Strong price
pressure is
offsetting
volume growth
and resulting in
essentially flat
revenue
through the
end of the
decade.

Volume growth + ASP
increase
(material shortage)

Large ASP
drop

• However, despite an anticipated
16% volume increase in 2015,
the 18% ASP drop will lead to
an overall decrease in revenue
for the year.
• We expect revenue to remain
essentially flat through 2017
and resume moderate growth
only after prices hit bottom
and stabilize around 2018.

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

11

ALTERNATIVE SUBSTRATES

We expect
sapphire to
remain the
dominant
substrate in
the LED
industry for
years to come.

• GaN-on-Si performance is catching up with
sapphire. But the cost benefits are still not obvious.
• We believe that companies that are committed to
the technology will eventually make it work
(Toshiba or, to a lesser extend, Samsung) but we are
skeptical that it will deliver cost improvements vs.
sapphire that would be significant enough to trigger
a massive industry platform transition from sapphire
to silicon substrate.

• Decrease of 4” GaN substrate price closer to the
US$1800 mark could be a trigger point in term of
cost of ownership to start promoting adoption of
GaN-On-GaN.
Companies committed to the
technology will be successful in the various niches
that benefit from high lumen density.
• SiC will loose ground as Cree, the only adopter
looses shares in term of global epitaxy capacity.
Announcement in July 2015 that the company is
restructuring its operations indicate that our
forecast might even be too conservative and that
SiC could loose ground faster than anticipated.
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

12

Power Electronics

OTHER WBG MATERIALS
Figure-of-merit
• Besides GaN and SiC, there are other materials that have even larger band gaps than GaN and SiC. These WBG
materials can potentially further increase the performance of power devices.

WBG is not
limited to
GaN & SiC!

On-resistance(mΩ cm2)

10,00

SiC
Si

1,00

GaN
Ga2O3

0,10
Diamond
AlN

0,01
10

100
1000
Breakdown voltage(V)

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

10000

14

WBG MATERIALS FOR POWER ELECTRONICS OVERVIEW
Structure of the report
• This report describes the landscape of different WBG materials for power electronics applications.

SiC Device

WBG

SiC wafer

GaN on Si

Epi on Silicon

GaN on GaN

GaN Device

SiC epi

FS/Bulk GaN

Today

Alternative solutions
Ga2O3
Tomorrow
Diamond
AlN
©2016 | www.yole.fr | Semicon Europa - gueguen@yole.fr

15

WBG MARKET SEGMENTATION AS A FUNCTION OF VOLTAGE RANGE

Current status and Yole’s vision for 2020*

While SiC is
used for high
voltage
applications,
GaN-on-Si is
mainly used
for low
voltage. The
600-900V
range will be
the
battlefield.

High-Voltage

Medium-Voltage

Low-Voltage

PV Inverter
PFC/ Power supply

Motor
Control

Ships & Vessels

Smart Power Grid

Audio Amplifier
EV/HEV