Semi WEEK: 2016 WFE Market Shares; Moore’s Wall, Nodal Fiction, Hyperscaling; stocks tumbled

Semi WEEK: 2016 WFE Market Shares; Moore’s Wall, Nodal Fiction, Hyperscaling; stocks tumbled

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Description: VLSIresearch’s CPPI is cooling off. Order activity continued to skyrocket. Chip making stocks had their worst week of the year.

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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

April 14, 2017

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
Chip Market Research Services

The Chip Insider

The upturn is in a full bloom
• Order activity continued to skyrocket, hitting a three month
high
• Equipment shortages are proliferating across the board
• VLSIresearch’s CPPI is cooling off
• Capacity continues to expand




Semiconductor Stocks



– Week-over-Year Sales Rocketed again
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast; Higher
– IC Weather1 Report: Hot, Cooler
– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: 2Q: Shortage 3Q: Tight




Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn

Chip making stocks had their worst week of the year
Chip stocks plummeted to an eight week low


Semiconductor Analytics
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales:

Strategy and Tactics: Moore’s Wall, Nodal Fiction,
Hyperscaling.
Equipment: 2016 WFE Market Shares.



Equipment stocks fell






VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Foundry & Subcons sunk
Assembly was the only bright spot this week

EDA stocks slipped, taking over Equipment for the
number one spot
Electronic Materials plunged, just barely staying ahead
of the market
Hottest Stocks: Xcerra, BESI, Samsung Electronics,
UMC, InvenSense, and Cadence

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
April 2017
The upturn is in a full bloom


This issue contains the latest
forecast.



Order activity continued to skyrocket,
hitting a three month high
Equipment shortages are proliferating
across the board
VLSIresearch’s CPPI is cooling off
Forecast as of March 2016:
Semi Equipment ($B):
Sequential Change
Capacity Utilization:
ICs ($B):
Sequential Change
IC Units (BU):
Sequential Change
Electronics ($B) :
Sequential Change

2016
$ 54.2
10.9%

2017
$ 58.5
8.0%

89.3%

89.8%

$ 290.1
2.1%
254.5
5.7%
$ 1,935
-2.3%

$ 310.3
7.0%
271.9
6.8%
$ 1,998
3.2%

Call us to access more details

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Production and Capacity Plan:
• Capacity continues to expand
• Production is closing seasonal
bottom

"Production and Capacity Plan: chart gives rolling averages for
semiconductor production, currently active capacity and current plus
planned capacity in millions of square inches of silicon wafers.
Production and Capacity Plan: chart gives rolling averages for
semiconductor production, currently active capacity and current plus
planned capacity in millions of square inches of silicon wafers."

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Analytics
W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year

This Week in the Supply Chain:
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales:





Week-over-Year Sales Rocketed again
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast:
Higher
IC Weather1 Report:
Hot, Cooler
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
2Q: Shortage 3Q: Tight

• Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Storms break: Aug 15
Cold-Front: Oct 15
Possible Bottom: Jan 16 Bottoming Apr 16
in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16 Sunny: Aug 16
Sunny: Jan 17
Warm: Mar 17

S-D Glut: Nov 15
S-D Shortage: Jul 16
Hot: Nov 16
Cooling: Dec 16
Hot: Mar 17

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronics Pricing: weekly trends for
PC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs

Price Trend:
Rising

1 Quarter Moving Average

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Equipment & Emerging Markets
2016 WFE Market Shares
• WFE Continues to be Ruled by Few
• Market Share Highlights





Etch Continues to be Highly Contested
CVD is Dominated by the Leaders
ALD is Very Competitive
VLSI’s View

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

WFE Continues to be Ruled by Few
Total 2016 WFE
market reached
$35.5B
10.5% growth
over 2015

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSI’s View
• WFE was very strong for the top
11 suppliers
– They gained two points of share
– Strong performance in 3DNAND
caused the share changes
– Foundry played major role in
2H16

• Applied Materials, Lam
Research, and TEL continue to
dominate vacuum based WFE
business
• ASML leads Lithography

• Applied Materials and Ebara
share CMP
• Applied Materials leads Ion
Implant
• Deposition and Etch & Wet
Clean continue to be contested
segments with more than two
suppliers

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: Moore’s Wall, Nodal Fiction,
Hyperscaling.
Focal Points:
Challenging the dogma that Moore’s Law is Dead
• A cheap attention grabber
• Wrong-headed for decades
• It’s also bad for our industry
• The data shows the current score at …
– Moore’s Law: 51 versus Moore’s Doubters: 0

Nodal Fiction
• Moore’s Law has been in trouble
• Trouble because the economic clock of the industry
changed
– Industry’s economic clock bells used to ring to
enterprise design cycles
– Now it is consumer

• One thing Moore’s Law cannot do is move
Christmas




The real problem with fictional nodes is that it
demeans the credibility of our industry
The second real problem is bipolar pressures of …
– Development costs versus an annual cycle
– Intel has an answer to that and they call it
Hyperscaling.

Hyperscaling: Intel’ Technology Manufacturing Day
• Why hyperscaling is real and
– why it’s more than just hype



How hyperscaling works
– Goes beyond simple dimensional shrinks
– Packs more into a cell
– Uses a 3 year clock to achieve a 2 year equivalent
clock



VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

How it keeps Moore’s Law in play
Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISON
New:
New: Top 10 Probe Card Suppliers - 2016
New: Semiconductor Market Smoking Hot in March
New: Top 10 Equipment Supplier Ranking for 2016

Remembering Peter Rose
VLSI's 1Q17 Review and Forecast Update with Andrea Lati
DRAM and Flash Memory Market 2017 ... with Jim Handy
Cognitive Compute ... with Mukesh Khare of IBM

weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSIresearch appears next @
• Critical Materials for Semiconductor • GSA Silicon Summit
– June 14, 2017; Mountain View, CA
Device Manufacturing
– May 11-12, 2017; Richardson, TX
– Risto is presenting

• Semicon West
– July 10-13, 2017; San Francisco, CA
– Risto is presenting

• SW Test
– June 4-7, 2017: San Diego, CA

• Flash Memory Summit
– August 8-10, 2017; Santa Clara, CA

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks had their worst week of the year with only

five companies clinging in the green. Semiconductors -3.4%, Equipment -1.4%, EDA -0.4%, Electronic Materials
-3.4%. Hottest Stocks: Xcerra, BESI, Samsung Electronics, UMC, InvenSense, and Cadence.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Intel

-2.2%

12

Cavium

-4.4%

19

IBM

-1.5%

12

Micron

-6.2%

Samsung Electronics

1.0%

5

Infineon

-1.6%

19



InvenSense

0.1%

STMicroelectronics

-6.1%

18

MagnaChip Semiconductor

-7.2%

10

Toshiba

-8.0%



Maxim

-2.8%

19

Western Digital

-2.0%

9

MaxLinear

-4.9%

17

MediaTek

-2.1%



Chip stocks plummeted 3.4%,
hitting an eight week low. Foundry
and Subcons sunk 2.4% as TSMC’s
guidance disappointed. Fabless
tumbled 3.5% while IDMs plunged
3.9%.

313

Sem iconductor Stocks
IDM

Foundry & Subcon

Sem iconductor Stocks

ASE

-2.7%

11

NVIDIA

-4.8%

28

SMIC

-4.3%

66

Panasonic

-1.8%

14

TSMC

-3.2%

14

Qualcomm

-6.3%

11

UMC

0.5%

14

Silicon Laboratories

-1.1%

21

Skyw orks

-4.3%

14

Fab-lite to Fabless
AMD

-8.9%

41

Texas Instruments

-3.3%

20

Analog Devices

-4.4%

16

Xilinx

-1.4%

23

Broadcom

-3.2%

AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASX
Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC InvenSense
INVN Micron Technology MU Panasonic
PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MX
Maxim MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA
NVDA

Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics
005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX

13

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Applied Materials

-3.6%

13

Advantest

-6.6%

ASM International

-1.7%



14

Teradyne

-3.2%

16

ASML
KLA-Tencor

-2.1%

24

Xcerra

8.2%

17

-1.3%

16

FormFactor

-6.6%

10

Lam Research

-3.2%

14

Assembly:

Nanometrics

-4.5%

19

BESI

6.4%



Nikon

-2.3%



Kulicke & Soffa

-1.5%

16

Oerlikon

-1.8%



ASM Pacific Technology

-2.6%

Rudolph Technologies

-1.9%

16

TEL

-4.0%



Cadence

-0.2%

21

Ultratech

-1.1%

19

Synopsys

-0.7%

20

Veeco Instruments

-3.9%

Equipment stocks fell 1.4%. Assembly
was the only bright spot this week gaining
0.8%, buoyed by BESI’s strong gain. Test
slipped 0.5% despite solid gains from
Xcerra. WFE tumbled 2.6%.

Equipm ent Stocks
Wafer Process:

Equipm ent Stocks
Test:

EDA Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

EDA stocks gave back 0.4%, taking over
Equipment for the number one spot.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI
ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific
0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK
Cadence CNDS KLA-Tencor KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX
Xcerra XCRA Nanometrics NANO Nikon 7731
Oerlikon OBH.SG Rudolph Technologies RTEC
Synopsys SNPS
Teradyne TER Tokyo
8035
Electron Limited
Ultratech UTEK
VECO
Veeco

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials'
Stocks

Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Forw ard P/E

BASF

-2.6%

15

Shin-Etsu

-0.8%



Cabot Microelectronics

-5.1%

20

SOITEC

-6.4%



DNP
Dow Electronic Materials

-2.7%



Tokyo Ohka

-1.5%



-3.4%

4

Versum Materials

-5.4%

15

JSR

-3.1%

Electronic Materials plunged 3.4%, just
barely staying ahead of the market.



Electronic Materials' Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

BASF BASFY
Cabot Microelectronics CCMP
7912
DNP
Dow Electronic Materials DOW
4185
JSR
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186
Versum Materials VSM

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

82.0
80.1
81.9
82.0
83.9
83.4
84.2
86.8
85.6
87.4
88.4
89.6
92.2
98.3
99.7
100.7
100.0
100.4
102.2
103.6
108.0
105.1
108.2
108.3
107.9
108.7
109.7
110.0
109.8
109.6
107.8
104.1

Min Growth

84.7
84.2
85.9
86.8
89.1
87.5
87.4
88.1
87.9
90.5
93.3
95.4
92.8
96.0
97.3
100.4
100.0
100.9
103.4
104.1
107.3
108.4
108.8
110.2
111.7
112.0
113.5
115.3
114.9
116.6
115.6
114.0

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Down

86.6
88.7
89.8
91.7
92.8
90.5
91.0
91.2
89.2
90.9
94.3
96.4
93.5
100.0
100.0
102.4
100.0
100.3
102.6
102.2
106.3
106.8
106.6
107.0
108.2
107.7
108.9
110.5
111.5
112.6
110.7
106.9

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks

Max Growth

09-Sep-16
16-Sep-16
23-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
07-Oct-16
14-Oct-16
21-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
04-Nov-16
11-Nov-16
18-Nov-16
25-Nov-16
02-Dec-16
09-Dec-16
16-Dec-16
23-Dec-16
30-Dec-16
06-Jan-17
13-Jan-17
20-Jan-17
27-Jan-17
03-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
03-Mar-17
10-Mar-17
17-Mar-17
24-Mar-17
31-Mar-17
07-Apr-17
14-Apr-17

Chip
Stocks

Companies
Up

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close

-3.1%
-1.8%
3.7%
3.5%
0.0%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
3.5%
8.5%
0.9%
-4.4%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
-0.4%
1.3%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
2.0%
-0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.8%
-0.4%

7
29
40
42
41
41
33
33
11
38
44
44
16
53
33
44
13
36
45
26
52
23
28
39
36
24
36
40
20
41
18
5

5.5%
13.9%
10.7%
10.2%
11.8%
11.8%
5.9%
14.1%
14.7%
17.7%
30.3%
15.8%
12.6%
46.7%
10.3%
19.3%
10.9%
6.7%
15.7%
13.2%
17.1%
14.7%
11.0%
12.2%
21.7%
14.5%
7.8%
13.5%
17.3%
8.3%
3.9%
8.2%

-48
-26
-15
-15
-14
-14
-23
-24
-45
-17
-12
-13
-39
-3
-24
-11
-40
-20
-12
-31
-4
-33
-27
-18
-21
-33
-19
-17
-33
-16
-39
-53

-21.5%
-6.1%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-9.8%
-27.1%
-10.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-11.8%
-6.9%
-10.7%
-4.2%
-36.5%
-8.2%
-6.5%
-14.1%
-13.7%
-10.5%
-14.1%
-22.7%
-5.9%
-7.7%
-2.7%
-8.7%
-4.5%
-7.0%
-10.5%
-8.9%

27.0%
20.0%
13.9%
13.7%
22.0%
22.0%
15.7%
41.2%
25.2%
24.5%
35.3%
18.2%
24.4%
53.6%
21.0%
23.5%
47.4%
14.9%
22.2%
27.3%
30.8%
25.2%
25.1%
34.9%
27.6%
22.2%
10.5%
22.2%
21.8%
15.3%
14.4%
17.1%

95.0
95.5
96.7
96.8
96.2
95.3
95.7
95.0
93.1
96.7
97.5
98.9
97.9
100.9
100.9
101.1
100.0
101.7
101.6
101.5
102.5
102.6
103.5
105.0
105.7
106.4
106.0
106.2
104.7
105.5
105.2
104.0

-2.4%
0.5%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.7%
-1.9%
3.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-1.0%
3.1%
-0.1%
0.3%
-1.1%
1.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.2%
-1.4%
0.8%
-0.3%
-1.1%

Weekly Growth

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

85.2
83.7
86.8
89.8
89.8
91.8
92.0
91.5
91.1
94.3
102.4
103.3
98.8
100.7
100.9
101.2
100.0
101.2
102.5
102.0
103.4
108.5
109.1
112.9
115.2
114.5
115.3
115.6
115.3
115.6
114.7
114.2

-4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.9%
3.8%
2.2%
-3.0%
7.0%
0.1%
2.4%
-2.4%
0.3%
2.2%
-0.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
1.0%
-1.7%
-3.4%

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks
-2.4%
-0.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2.6%
-1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.7%
3.5%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
-0.3%
1.4%
-0.8%
-1.4%

-0.8%
-2.4%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.0%
3.0%
-1.4%
2.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
6.7%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.8%
1.4%
4.2%
-2.7%
2.9%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1.6%
-3.4%

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
April 14th
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) CEO Mark Liu on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call
Transcript
March 31, 2017 & Before
Aehr Test Systems' (AEHR) CEO Gayn Erickson on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dell Technologies (DVMT) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ReneSola's (SOL) CEO Xianshou Li on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Micron Technology's (MU) CEO Mark Durcan on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Entegris' (ENTG) CEO Bertrand Loy Hosts 2017 Analyst Meeting (Transcript)
Marvell Technology Group' (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
B E Semicon's (BESIY) CEO Richard Blickman on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dialog Semiconductor's (DLGNF) CEO Jalal Bagherli on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) CEO Meg Whitman on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
HP (HPQ) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Xcerra's (XCRA) CEO Dave Tacelli On Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Micron Technology's (MU) Management Presents at Susquehanna Semi, Storage & Technology Conference Call
(Transcript)
Semtech's (SMTC) CEO Mohan Maheswaran on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
QUALCOMM's (QCOM) CEO Steven Mollenkopf Hosts 2017 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (Transcript)
IDT's (IDT) CEO Shmuel Jonas on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Veeco Instruments (VECO) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cohu, Inc.'s (COHU) CEO Luis Müller On Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Synopsys' (SNPS) CEO Aart de Geus on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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