Semi WEEK: April update indicated that industry fundamentals remain solid; Shortages, stocks rebound

Semi WEEK: April update indicated that industry fundamentals remain solid; Shortages, stocks rebound

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Description: VLSIresearch’s CPPI finished flat. Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn. Shortages, SPIE Lithography Week, & Is Moore’s Law outmoded.

Chip making stocks rebounded this week.

 
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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

April 21, 2017

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
Chip Market Research Services

The Chip Insider

Temperatures cooled but the path is still clear
• Order activity tumbled two points
• The April update indicated that industry fundamentals
remain solid
• VLSIresearch’s CPPI finished flat
• Electronics sales is searching seasonal bottom



Semiconductor Analytics



Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales:
– Week-over-Year Sales Rocketed again
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast: Higher
– IC Weather1 Report: Cooling
– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Easing
• Electronics Price Trend: Rising
• Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn

Strategy and Tactics: Shortages, SPIE Lithography
Week, & Is Moore’s Law outmoded.

Semiconductor Stocks



Chip making stocks rebounded this week
Chip stocks gained 1.8%


Equipment stocks soared to a new high






VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Reclaiming their number one position
WFE rocketed

EDA stocks hit a new high
Electronic Materials jumped 2.3%




Fabless jumped

Strong gains from Versum Materials

Hottest Stocks: Veeco Instruments, Lam Research,
Rudolph Technologies, Advantest, Versum Materials,
and ASM Pacific Technology

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
April 2017
Temperatures cooled but the
path is still clear


This issue contains the latest
forecast.



Order activity tumbled two points
The April update indicated that industry
fundamentals remain solid
VLSIresearch’s CPPI finished flat

Call us to access more details

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Electronics sales is
searching seasonal
bottom

Worldwide Electronics Shipments: chart gives rolling
averages for electronics sales

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Analytics
W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year

This Week in the Supply Chain:
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales:





Week-over-Year Sales Rocketed again
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast:
Higher
IC Weather1 Report:
Cooling
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Easing

• Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Storms break: Aug 15
Cold-Front: Oct 15
Possible Bottom: Jan 16 Bottoming Apr 16
in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16 Sunny: Aug 16
Sunny: Jan 17
Warm: Mar 17

S-D Glut: Nov 15
S-D Shortage: Jul 16
Hot: Nov 16
Cooling: Dec 16
Hot: Mar 17

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronics Pricing: weekly trends for
PC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs

Price Trend:
Rising

1 Quarter Moving Average

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: Shortages, SPIE
Lithography Week, & Is Moore’s Law outmoded
Focal Points:
Shortages:
• Memories are not the only market where
there’s a shortage.

Q&A: Moore’s Wall, Nodal Fiction, Hyperscaling &
Semiconductor Metrology: Past Present and
Future
• Countering the anti-More-Moore crowd’s
arguments that the law is outmoded

SPIE Lithography Week
• A complete health check on the ‘queen of the
fab’
• Martin van den Brink, Frank Abboud, Ben Tsai,
Nobu Koshiba, Richard M. Silver, and
• George Gomba



– Why it’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the
industry's economics and markets
– Why cutting edge processes matter to little die

And more about the April 7th edition covering
Moore’s Law and 10nm

Chip History:
• 10 Years Ago – 65nm & node acceleration
• Legends & Landmarks — Applied Materials
founded 50 years ago

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– One of their first tools
Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISON
New:
New: Wafer Fab Management for Leadership
... with Tom Caulfield of GLOBALFOUNDRIES

New: TSMC’s Outlook
New: Xcerra’s Outlook

New: Top 10 Probe Card Suppliers
New: Semiconductor Market Smoking Hot
New: Top 10 Equipment Supplier Ranking
Remembering Peter Rose
weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

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VLSIresearch appears next @
• Critical Materials for Semiconductor • GSA Silicon Summit
– June 14, 2017; Mountain View, CA
Device Manufacturing
– May 11-12, 2017; Richardson, TX
– Risto is presenting

• Semicon West
– July 10-13, 2017; San Francisco, CA
– Risto is presenting

• SW Test
– June 4-7, 2017: San Diego, CA

• Flash Memory Summit
– August 8-10, 2017; Santa Clara, CA

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks rebounded this week with all indices

jumping in the green. Semiconductors +1.8%, Equipment +5.5%, EDA +4.1%, Electronic Materials +2.3%. Hottest
Stocks: Veeco Instruments, Lam Research, Rudolph Technologies, Advantest, Versum Materials, and ASM Pacific
Technology.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Sem iconductor Stocks

Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Cavium

2.9%

20
11

Forw ard P/E

IDM

Sem iconductor Stocks

Intel

3.0%

12

IBM

-5.4%

Micron

2.2%

5

Infineon

-0.3%

19

Samsung Electronics

-3.0%



InvenSense

3.3%

323

STMicroelectronics

0.2%

18

MagnaChip Semiconductor

-0.6%

10

Toshiba

4.3%



Maxim

2.6%

19

Western Digital

-0.5%

9

MaxLinear

3.4%

18

MediaTek

1.4%



ASE

0.0%

11

NVIDIA

6.5%

30

SMIC

0.0%

66

Panasonic

3.8%

15

TSMC

0.8%

14

Qualcomm

-0.5%

11

UMC

-2.6%

14

Silicon Laboratories

4.1%

22

Skyw orks

4.2%

14

AMD

5.6%

45

Texas Instruments

2.5%

20

Analog Devices

1.5%

17

Xilinx

3.6%

24

Broadcom

3.0%

Chip stocks gained 1.8%. Fabless
jumped 2.3% with a majority of the
companies finishing in the green.
IDMs gained 1.0% while Foundry &
Subcons gave back 0.5%.

14

Foundry & Subcon

Fab-lite to Fabless

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASX
Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC InvenSense
INVN Micron Technology MU Panasonic
PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MX
Maxim MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA
NVDA

Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics
005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Applied Materials

6.1%

14

Advantest

ASM International

4.1%

15

ASML

1.3%

25

KLA-Tencor

3.2%

Lam Research

11.8%

Nanometrics
Nikon

Equipm ent Stocks

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

9.1%



Teradyne

4.7%

17

Xcerra

-0.1%

16

16

FormFactor

2.3%

10

16

Assembly:

4.9%

20

BESI

1.5%



1.5%



Kulicke & Soffa

6.6%

17

ASM Pacific Technology

Equipment stocks soared 5.5%, reclaiming
their number one position and hitting a new
high for the year. WFE rocketed 6.0% with
companies reporting better than expected
earnings for Q1. Assembly jumped 5.1%
and Test climbed 4.6%.

Wafer Process:

Equipm ent Stocks
Test:

7.3%

Oerlikon

4.8%



Rudolph Technologies

11.6%

18

TEL

5.9%



Cadence

5.7%

23

Ultratech

3.6%

20

Synopsys

2.4%

21

Veeco Instruments

13.1%

EDA Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

EDA stocks hit a new high for the year,
jumping 4.1%.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI
ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK
BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK Cadence CNDS
KLA-Tencor KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC
Lam Research LRCX
Xcerra XCRA
NANO Nikon 7731 Oerlikon
Nanometrics
OBH.SG Rudolph Technologies RTEC
Synopsys SNPS
Teradyne TER Tokyo
8035
Electron Limited
Ultratech UTEK
VECO
Veeco

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials'
Stocks

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

BASF

-1.0%

15

Shin-Etsu

0.2%



Cabot Microelectronics

2.9%

DNP

2.5%

20

SOITEC

-4.6%





Tokyo Ohka

5.6%



Dow Electronic Materials

1.8%

4

Versum Materials

7.6%

16

JSR

5.9%

Electronic Materials jumped 2.3% with
strong gains from Versum Materials.



Electronic Materials' Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

BASF BASFY
Cabot Microelectronics CCMP
7912
DNP
Dow Electronic Materials DOW
4185
JSR
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186
Versum Materials VSM

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

80.1
81.9
82.0
83.9
83.4
84.2
86.8
85.6
87.4
88.4
89.6
92.2
98.3
99.7
100.7
100.0
100.4
102.2
103.6
108.0
105.1
108.2
108.3
107.9
108.7
109.7
110.0
109.8
109.6
107.8
104.1
106.5

Min Growth

84.2
85.9
86.8
89.1
87.5
87.4
88.1
87.9
90.5
93.3
95.4
92.8
96.0
97.3
100.4
100.0
100.9
103.4
104.1
107.3
108.4
108.8
110.2
111.7
112.0
113.5
115.3
114.9
116.6
115.6
114.0
120.3

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Down

88.7
89.8
91.7
92.8
90.5
91.0
91.2
89.2
90.9
94.3
96.4
93.5
100.0
100.0
102.4
100.0
100.3
102.6
102.2
106.3
106.8
106.6
107.0
108.2
107.7
108.9
110.5
111.5
112.6
110.7
106.9
108.8

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks

Max Growth

16-Sep-16
23-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
07-Oct-16
14-Oct-16
21-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
04-Nov-16
11-Nov-16
18-Nov-16
25-Nov-16
02-Dec-16
09-Dec-16
16-Dec-16
23-Dec-16
30-Dec-16
06-Jan-17
13-Jan-17
20-Jan-17
27-Jan-17
03-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
03-Mar-17
10-Mar-17
17-Mar-17
24-Mar-17
31-Mar-17
07-Apr-17
14-Apr-17
21-Apr-17

Chip
Stocks

Companies
Up

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close

-1.8%
3.7%
3.5%
0.0%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
3.5%
8.5%
0.9%
-4.4%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
-0.4%
1.3%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
2.0%
-0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.8%
-0.4%
4.1%

29
40
42
41
41
33
33
11
38
44
44
16
53
33
44
13
36
45
26
52
23
28
39
36
24
36
40
20
41
18
5
46

13.9%
10.7%
10.2%
11.8%
11.8%
5.9%
14.1%
14.7%
17.7%
30.3%
15.8%
12.6%
46.7%
10.3%
19.3%
10.9%
6.7%
15.7%
13.2%
17.1%
14.7%
11.0%
12.2%
21.7%
14.5%
7.8%
13.5%
17.3%
8.3%
3.9%
8.2%
13.1%

-26
-15
-15
-14
-14
-23
-24
-45
-17
-12
-13
-39
-3
-24
-11
-40
-20
-12
-31
-4
-33
-27
-18
-21
-33
-19
-17
-33
-16
-39
-53
-10

-6.1%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-9.8%
-27.1%
-10.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-11.8%
-6.9%
-10.7%
-4.2%
-36.5%
-8.2%
-6.5%
-14.1%
-13.7%
-10.5%
-14.1%
-22.7%
-5.9%
-7.7%
-2.7%
-8.7%
-4.5%
-7.0%
-10.5%
-8.9%
-5.4%

20.0%
13.9%
13.7%
22.0%
22.0%
15.7%
41.2%
25.2%
24.5%
35.3%
18.2%
24.4%
53.6%
21.0%
23.5%
47.4%
14.9%
22.2%
27.3%
30.8%
25.2%
25.1%
34.9%
27.6%
22.2%
10.5%
22.2%
21.8%
15.3%
14.4%
17.1%
18.5%

95.5
96.7
96.8
96.2
95.3
95.7
95.0
93.1
96.7
97.5
98.9
97.9
100.9
100.9
101.1
100.0
101.7
101.6
101.5
102.5
102.6
103.5
105.0
105.7
106.4
106.0
106.2
104.7
105.5
105.2
104.0
104.9

0.5%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.7%
-1.9%
3.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-1.0%
3.1%
-0.1%
0.3%
-1.1%
1.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.2%
-1.4%
0.8%
-0.3%
-1.1%
0.8%

Weekly Growth

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

83.7
86.8
89.8
89.8
91.8
92.0
91.5
91.1
94.3
102.4
103.3
98.8
100.7
100.9
101.2
100.0
101.2
102.5
102.0
103.4
108.5
109.1
112.9
115.2
114.5
115.3
115.6
115.3
115.6
114.7
114.2
118.8

2.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.9%
3.8%
2.2%
-3.0%
7.0%
0.1%
2.4%
-2.4%
0.3%
2.2%
-0.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
1.0%
-1.7%
-3.4%
1.8%

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks
-0.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2.6%
-1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.7%
3.5%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
-0.3%
1.4%
-0.8%
-1.4%
5.5%

-2.4%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.0%
3.0%
-1.4%
2.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
6.7%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.8%
1.4%
4.2%
-2.7%
2.9%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1.6%
-3.4%
2.3%

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Conference Call Transcripts
April 21st
Maxim Integrated Products' (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
QUALCOMM's (QCOM) CEO Steve Mollenkopf on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ASML Holding's (ASML) CEO Peter Wennink on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Lam Research's (LRCX) CEO Martin Anstice on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
April 14, 2017 & Before
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) CEO Mark Liu on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call
Transcript
Aehr Test Systems' (AEHR) CEO Gayn Erickson on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dell Technologies (DVMT) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ReneSola's (SOL) CEO Xianshou Li on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Micron Technology's (MU) CEO Mark Durcan on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Entegris' (ENTG) CEO Bertrand Loy Hosts 2017 Analyst Meeting (Transcript)

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Marvell Technology Group' (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
B E Semicon's (BESIY) CEO Richard Blickman on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dialog Semiconductor's (DLGNF) CEO Jalal Bagherli on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) CEO Meg Whitman on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
HP (HPQ) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Xcerra's (XCRA) CEO Dave Tacelli On Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Micron Technology's (MU) Management Presents at Susquehanna Semi, Storage & Technology Conference Call
(Transcript)
Semtech's (SMTC) CEO Mohan Maheswaran on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
QUALCOMM's (QCOM) CEO Steven Mollenkopf Hosts 2017 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (Transcript)
IDT's (IDT) CEO Shmuel Jonas on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Veeco Instruments (VECO) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Cohu, Inc.'s (COHU) CEO Luis Müller On Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Synopsys' (SNPS) CEO Aart de Geus on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Analog Devices (ADI) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Photronics' (PLAB) CEO Peter Kirlin On Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Test Consumable Reports:




Probe Card Report: V16.04
Test and Burn-In Socket Report : V16.04
Device Interface Board Report: V16.04

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