SemiWEEK: Memory capex will surge more than 30% in 2017; 2Q 2017 Equipment Supplier Performance; Chip History Center; Stocks rose

SemiWEEK: Memory capex will surge more than 30% in 2017; 2Q 2017 Equipment Supplier Performance; Chip History Center; Stocks rose

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Description: Memory capex will surge more than 30% in 2017. Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn. 2Q 2017 Equipment Supplier Performance.

Chip making stocks continue to rise.

 
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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

August 25, 2017

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
Chip Market Research Services

The Chip Insider

Calmly building next year's nest...
• Order activity continued its cooling trend.
• Memory capex will surge more than 30% in 2017
• Capacity Utilization by Wafer Size

Equipment: 2Q 2017 Equipment Supplier Performance
• All WFE suppliers are increasing sales
• All Back End Equipment Suppliers Are Growing
SIA’s 40th Anniversary Award Dinner
Robert N. Noyce Award Winner: Mark Durcan
Keynote Speaker: Gen. Keith Alexander

Chip History Center
People: Robert N. Noyce, Intel’s first CEO

Semiconductor Analytics
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales in a Super-Cycle:








Week-over-Year Sales rocket up
IC Sales Quarter Nowcast: Slips a point
IC Weather1 Report: Cooler
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Shortage unbalanced

Electronics Price Trend: Rolling Over
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn

Semiconductor Stocks



Chip making stocks continue to rise
Chip stocks jumped








VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Claiming five of the top six spots
Foundry and Subcons surged

Equipment stocks slipped
EDA stocks jumped to a new yearly high
Electronic Materials increased
Hottest Stocks: Western Digital, UMC, Toshiba, Xilinx,
JSR, and Infineon

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
August 2017
Calmly building next year's nest...





Order activity continued its cooling trend.
Memory remains the hottest segment.
Memory capex will surge more than 30% in 2017
VLSIresearch’s CPPI rose 0.2 points

This issue contains the latest
forecast.

Call us to access more details

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Capacity Utilization by
Wafer Size:
– Utilization rates are sprinting
towards seasonal peak

Fab Capacity Utilization by Wafer Size: Chart gives rolling
averages for300mm, 200mm, and smaller silicon wafers

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

People: Robert N. Noyce, Intel’s first
CEO. Some links to learn about him:
Legends, Circa 1990 - Remembering
Robert Noyce
Interview with Leslie Berlin on her
Biography of Bob Noyce - Segment 1
Segment 2
Robert N. Noyce: Early Career
Robert N. Noyce: The Intel Years

The lady bug and the microchip
• A children's story about microns
and nanometers

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017
Fairmont San Jose

CEO Reception
5:00 – 6:30pm

Award Dinner
6:30 – 8:30pm

Post Party
8:30 – 10:00pm

170 S Market St, San Jose, CA 95113
Registration is required for this event:
Purchase Single Ticket - $450
Purchase Single non member Ticket - $500
Robert N. Noyce Award Winner
Mark Durcan
Former CEO, Micron

Keynote Speaker
Gen. Keith Alexander
Former Director, National Security Agency/
CEO and President, IronNet Cybersecurity
Staying Ahead of the Curve: The Importance
Of Technology to Our National Security

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Contact Sarah Laws to purchase a table
or to learn about sponsorships
Phone: 202-446-1711
Email: slaws@semiconductors.org

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Analytics
W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year

This Week in the Supply Chain:
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales in a Super-Cycle:





Week-over-Year Sales rocket up
IC Sales Quarter Nowcast:
Slips a point
IC Weather1 Report:
Cooler
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Shortage unbalanced

• Electronics Price Trend: Rolling Over
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Storms break: Aug 15
Possible Bottom: Jan 16
in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16
Sunny: Jan 17

Cold-Front: Oct 15
Bottoming Apr 16
Sunny: Aug 16
Warm: Mar 17

S-D Glut: Nov 15
S-D Shortage: Jul 16
Hot: Nov 16
Cooling: Dec 16
Hot: Mar 17
Bubbly: Jul 17

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronics Pricing: weekly trends for
PC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs

Price Trend:
Rolling Over

1 Quarter Moving Average

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Equipment & Emerging Markets
2Q 2017 Equipment Supplier Performance
• All WFE suppliers are increasing sales




Very broad up-cycle across all segments and companies

All Back End Equipment Suppliers Are Growing



Strong year for Test
Fantastic year for assembly equipment business

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

All WFE suppliers are increasing sales
Very broad up-cycle across all segments and companies

Rolling 4 quarter basis:
• AMAT and TEL are increasing sales
over $2.5B
– AMAT’s run rate for system sales is
over $11B per year!

• Followed by LAM with $2.1B and
ASML with $1.7B increase

* 4 qtr growth = sum of last 4
quarters divided by sum of the
same 4 quarters from the year
before

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

All Back End Equipment Suppliers Are Growing
• Strong year for Test
– Teradyne on track to become #1 Test
supplier
– Top test suppliers grew over 34% in
1q17 and 26% in 2Q17

• Fantastic year for assembly
equipment business
– Rolling 4Q Sales shows 25% y-o-y
growth

* 4 qtr growth = sum of last 4
quarters divided by sum of the
same 4 quarters from the year
before

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSI’s View
• 2017 is a blow-out equipment
year
• WFE is on track to reach record
year with 30% growth and over
$45B is sales
– Visibility expanding into 2018
• Memory continues to drive
demand
• Chinese projects coming
online during 2018

– Continued investment
• NAND continues well

• DRAM continues to need
more capacity in ’18
• 10nm and emerging 7nm
Logic

• Test and Assembly are also
strong
– Likely to beat 2010 sales
– Teradyne’s record year,
potentially becoming #1 test
supplier in 2017

• Exceptionally broad device
demand is driving back-end
growth

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISION
New: Conquering LER with metrology

New:

This Time it's Different
GLOBALFOUNDRIES’ Fab 8 in Malta NY
Top 10 Critical Subsystems Suppliers for 2016

Memory ... Er-Xuan Ping of Applied Materials
Applied Wisdom with Jim Morgan
Tom Caulfield of GLOBALFOUNDRIES

Top 10 Equipment Supplier Ranking for 2016
weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSIresearch appears next @
• Semicon Taiwan
– September 13 – 15, Taipei, TW

• SEMI ITPC
– November 5-8, Big Island, HI
– Dan Presenting

• IEEE Int’l Conference on Rebooting
Computing

• SIA Dinner
November 14, San Jose, CA

• IEEE IEDM
– December 2 - 6, San Francisco,
CA

• Semicon Japan
– December 13 - 15, Tokyo, Japan

– November 8 - 9, Washington, DC
– Dan Presenting

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks continue their rise. Semiconductors

+1.7%, Equipment -0.4%, EDA +1.4%, Electronic Materials +1.1%. Hottest Stocks: Western Digital, UMC, Toshiba,
Xilinx, JSR, and Infineon.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Sem iconductor Stocks

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Cavium

Price
Change

-0.9%

17

Sem iconductor Stocks

Forw ard P/E

IDM
Intel

-1.0%

12

IBM

2.9%

10

Micron

-0.3%

5

Infineon

3.4%

19

Samsung Electronics

0.3%



MagnaChip Semiconductor

2.8%

13

STMicroelectronics

3.1%

17

Maxim

2.7%

19

Toshiba

6.7%



MaxLinear

2.1%

11

Western Digital

8.5%

7

MediaTek

0.6%



NVIDIA

1.4%

47

Foundry & Subcon
ASE

2.0%

12

Panasonic

-0.7%

17

SMIC

0.0%

19

Qualcomm

0.2%

14

TSMC

2.8%

16

Silicon Laboratories

0.1%

22

UMC

7.9%

18

Skyw orks

-0.2%

14

Texas Instruments

1.3%

20

Xilinx

6.1%

23

Fab-lite to Fabless
AMD

0.5%

43

Analog Devices

1.6%

17

Broadcom

-1.5%

Chip stocks jumped 1.7%,
claiming five of the top six spots.
Foundry & Subcons surged 3.2%,
IDMs soared 2.9%, and Fabless
gained 1.3%.
AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASX
Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC Micron
Technology MU Panasonic PC
MagnaChip Semiconductor MX
Maxim MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA
NVDA

Qualcomm QCOM Samsung
Electronics 005930.KS Silicon
Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX

14

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Forw ard P/E

Applied Materials

-2.2%

13

Advantest

0.3%



ASM International

-0.1%

13

Teradyne

1.9%

16

ASML

1.3%

27

Xcerra

0.5%

15

KLA-Tencor

0.2%

14

FormFactor

1.8%

12

Lam Research

-1.6%

14

Assembly:

Nanometrics

-1.4%

16

BESI

-0.2%



Nikon

-1.7%



Kulicke & Soffa

-1.4%

12

Oerlikon

-1.2%



ASM Pacific Technology

-3.0%

Rudolph Technologies

0.5%

16

TEL

-0.1%



Veeco Instruments

1.6%

Equipment stocks slipped 0.4%. Test
was the only bright spot for equipment
this week, gaining 0.9%. WFE gave
back 0.4% and Assembly sunk 1.5%.

Equipm ent Stocks
Wafer Process:

Equipm ent Stocks
Test:

EDA Stocks
Cadence

1.2%

25

Synopsys

1.6%

22

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

EDA stocks jumped 1.4% to a new
high for the year.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI
ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific
0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK
Cadence CNDS KLA-Tencor KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research
LRCX
Xcerra XCRA Nanometrics NANO
7731 Oerlikon OBH.SG Rudolph
Nikon
Technologies RTEC Synopsys SNPS
Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron
Limited 8035
Veeco VECO

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials'
Stocks

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

BASF

2.4%

15

Shin-Etsu

0.0%



Cabot Microelectronics

0.9%

18

SOITEC

-1.6%



DNP

-0.2%



Tokyo Ohka

1.6%



Dow Electronic Materials

1.8%

4

Versum Materials

1.2%

18

JSR

3.7%



Electronic Materials' Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Electronic Materials increased 1.1% with a
majority of the companies finishing in the
green.
BASF BASFY
Cabot Microelectronics CCMP
7912
DNP
Dow Electronic Materials DOW
4185
JSR
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186
Versum Materials VSM

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

103.6
108.0
105.1
108.2
108.3
107.9
108.7
109.7
110.0
109.8
109.6
107.8
104.1
106.5
111.1
111.4
111.6
110.8
111.7
116.0
117.1
113.8
117.1
115.2
113.8
117.3
117.6
115.8
115.7
114.4
115.4
116.6

Min Growth

104.1
107.3
108.4
108.8
110.2
111.7
112.0
113.5
115.3
114.9
116.6
115.6
114.0
120.3
125.0
127.2
127.4
126.7
128.6
130.9
130.3
126.1
127.9
121.3
124.3
130.3
134.3
132.0
124.6
123.0
123.5
123.0

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Down

102.2
106.3
106.8
106.6
107.0
108.2
107.7
108.9
110.5
111.5
112.6
110.7
106.9
108.8
111.4
112.5
114.6
114.9
117.1
118.4
118.9
117.4
120.2
116.9
117.4
121.7
122.4
119.9
120.2
117.3
117.6
119.6

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks

Max Growth

20-Jan-17
27-Jan-17
03-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
03-Mar-17
10-Mar-17
17-Mar-17
24-Mar-17
31-Mar-17
07-Apr-17
14-Apr-17
21-Apr-17
28-Apr-17
05-May-17
12-May-17
19-May-17
26-May-17
02-Jun-17
09-Jun-17
16-Jun-17
23-Jun-17
30-Jun-17
07-Jul-17
14-Jul-17
21-Jul-17
28-Jul-17
04-Aug-17
11-Aug-17
18-Aug-17
25-Aug-17

Chip
Stocks

Companies
Up

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close

-0.4%
1.3%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
2.0%
-0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.8%
-0.4%
4.1%
0.3%
1.1%
-0.2%
-2.5%
5.7%
1.5%
-1.4%
-1.6%
0.5%
-2.1%
0.4%
3.0%
0.8%
3.2%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.4%

26
52
23
28
39
36
24
36
40
20
41
18
5
46
47
36
32
23
42
44
19
11
37
6
38
52
35
15
20
17
30
36

13.2%
17.1%
14.7%
11.0%
12.2%
21.7%
14.5%
7.8%
13.5%
17.3%
8.3%
3.9%
8.2%
13.1%
14.4%
28.4%
23.1%
6.3%
11.1%
9.8%
16.7%
14.7%
23.9%
19.0%
7.1%
12.4%
19.8%
20.4%
9.7%
14.1%
8.5%
8.5%

-31
-4
-33
-27
-18
-21
-33
-19
-17
-33
-16
-39
-53
-10
-10
-22
-25
-34
-15
-10
-36
-45
-19
-50
-18
-4
-20
-40
-35
-39
-25
-18

-14.1%
-13.7%
-10.5%
-14.1%
-22.7%
-5.9%
-7.7%
-2.7%
-8.7%
-4.5%
-7.0%
-10.5%
-8.9%
-5.4%
-1.8%
-23.4%
-11.3%
-8.1%
-3.5%
-3.8%
-6.0%
-12.6%
-5.6%
-11.9%
-7.0%
-11.6%
-5.9%
-14.0%
-30.0%
-17.7%
-9.5%
-3.0%

27.3%
30.8%
25.2%
25.1%
34.9%
27.6%
22.2%
10.5%
22.2%
21.8%
15.3%
14.4%
17.1%
18.5%
16.2%
51.8%
34.4%
14.4%
14.6%
13.6%
22.7%
27.3%
29.5%
30.9%
14.1%
24.0%
25.7%
34.4%
39.7%
31.8%
18.0%
11.5%

101.5
102.5
102.6
103.5
105.0
105.7
106.4
106.0
106.2
104.7
105.5
105.2
104.0
104.9
106.5
107.2
106.8
106.4
107.9
108.9
108.6
108.7
108.9
108.2
108.3
109.8
110.4
110.4
110.6
109.0
108.3
109.1

-0.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.2%
-1.4%
0.8%
-0.3%
-1.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.6%
-0.3%
-0.4%
1.4%
1.0%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
1.4%
0.5%
0.0%
0.2%
-1.4%
-0.6%
0.7%

Weekly Growth

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

102.0
103.4
108.5
109.1
112.9
115.2
114.5
115.3
115.6
115.3
115.6
114.7
114.2
118.8
119.1
120.5
120.3
117.3
124.0
125.8
124.1
122.1
122.7
120.2
120.7
124.3
125.3
129.4
128.1
128.1
130.0
131.8

-0.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
1.0%
-1.7%
-3.4%
1.8%
2.4%
1.0%
1.9%
0.2%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
-1.2%
2.4%
-2.8%
0.4%
3.7%
0.6%
-2.1%
0.2%
-2.4%
0.3%
1.7%

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%
-0.3%
1.4%
-0.8%
-1.4%
5.5%
3.9%
1.8%
0.1%
-0.6%
1.5%
1.8%
-0.4%
-3.2%
1.4%
-5.1%
2.4%
4.9%
3.0%
-1.7%
-5.6%
-1.3%
0.4%
-0.4%

1.4%
4.2%
-2.7%
2.9%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1.6%
-3.4%
2.3%
4.3%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.8%
0.8%
3.8%
1.0%
-2.9%
2.9%
-1.6%
-1.2%
3.1%
0.2%
-1.5%
-0.1%
-1.1%
0.9%
1.1%

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
August 25th
Marvell Technology Group's (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
August 18, 2017 & Before
Applied Materials' (AMAT) CEO Gary Dickerson on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Synopsys (SNPS) on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cisco Systems' (CSCO) CEO Charles Robbins on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ChipMOS Technologies' (IMOS) CEO Shih-Jye Cheng on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) Presents at Canaccord Genuity 37th Annual Global Growth Conference Transcript
MaxLinear's (MXL) CEO Kishore Seendripu on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Apple's Q3: Initial Impressions
Intel Corporation's (INTC) Management on KeyBanc Capital Markets Global Technology Leadership Forum
Conference (Transcript)
Micron Technology (MU) Presents at KeyBanc Capital Markets 19th Annual Global Technology Leadership

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Forum Conference (Transcript)
ON Semiconductor's (ON) CEO Keith Jackson on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Vishay Intertechnology's (VSH) CEO Gerald Paul on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Axcelis Technologies' (ACLS) CEO Mary Puma on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Infinera (INFN) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
MagnaChip Semiconductor's (MX) CEO YJ Kim on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Microchip Technology (MCHP) Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Veeco Instruments' (VECO) CEO John Peeler on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Tower Semiconductor's (TSEM) CEO Russell Ellwanger on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Qorvo (QRVO) Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Q1 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
FormFactor's (FORM) CEO Mike Slessor on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cavium (CAVM) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Brooks Automation's (BRKS) CEO Steve Schwartz on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Maxim Integrated Products' (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Micron Technology's (MU) Management Presents at Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2017 Global Technology Conference
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