Semi WEEK: Order activity jumped; Nikon LithoVision and KLA-Tencorís SPIE Dinner; Stocks soared

Semi WEEK: Order activity jumped; Nikon LithoVision and KLA-Tencorís SPIE Dinner; Stocks soared

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Description: VLSIresearchís CPPI resumed its climb. Semi Sales: VLSI is now projecting that tight supply conditions will extend into the 3Q . Chip making stocks soared to new highs.

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Author: Andrea Lati (Fellow) | Visits: 350 | Page Views: 1934
Domain:  High Tech Category: Semiconductors Subcategory: Semiconductor Equipment 
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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

March 17, 2017

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
Chip Market Research Services

The Chip Insider

Can it remain this bright?
• Order activity jumped above 86 degrees
• Memory surged to a six week high
• VLSIresearch’s CPPI resumed its climb
• Equipment orders are rising



Semiconductor Analytics




Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales: VLSI is now projecting that tight supply
conditions will extend into the 3Q
– Week-over-Year Sales Rose
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast Slipped
– IC Weather1 Report: Warm & Warmer
– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Shortage thru 2Q




Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn

Strategy and Tactics: Nikon LithoVision and KLATencor’s SPIE Dinner

Chip History


Industry Landmarks: KLA 2020, Circa 1984

Semiconductor Stocks
Chip making stocks soared to new highs
Chip stocks claimed four of the top six spots




Equipment stocks extended their gains for the eleventh
consecutive week






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Foundry & Subcons surged

Test came out on top

EDA stocks remained at the top, but they lost more
ground to equipment
Electronic Materials etched a gain
Hottest Stocks: MagnaChip Semiconductor, NVIDIA,
Xcerra, ASE, Cabot Microelectronics, and Samsung
Electronics.
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSI’s Customer Satisfaction Survey has begun!
• Coverage includes:
– IC Mfg. Equipment
• Test
• Assembly
• Fab Equipment

– Critical Subsystems

• Click here to get your ratings
in before the survey closes on
March 31st or go to
www.vlsiresearch.com and
click the 10 BEST logo in the
upper right hand corner

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
March 2017
Can it remain this bright?



This issue contains the latest
forecast.



Order activity jumped above 86 degrees
Memory surged to a six week high
The other segments moved higher as
well
VLSIresearch’s CPPI resumed its climb
Forecast as of March 2016:
Semi Equipment ($B):
Sequential Change

2016
$ 54.2
10.9%

2017
$ 58.5
8.0%

Capacity Utilization:
ICs ($B):
Sequential Change
IC Units (BU):
Sequential Change
Electronics ($B) :
Sequential Change

89.3%

89.8%

$ 290.1
2.1%
254.5
5.7%
$ 1,935
-2.3%

$ 310.3
7.0%
271.9
6.8%
$ 1,998
3.2%

Call us to access more details

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Equipment orders are rising
while revenues are slipping
– Revenues remain well above
this time last year

Worldwide Chip Making Equipment Markets: Chart shows rolling
averages in $B for semiconductor equipment orders and revenues,
contrasted against a 36-month rolling average of revenues

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Analytics
W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year

This Week in the Supply Chain:
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales: VLSI is now projecting that tight
supply conditions will extend into 3Q





Week-over-Year Sales Rose
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast:
Slipped
IC Weather1 Report:
Warm & Warmer
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Shortage thru 2Q & Tight in 3Q

• Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Storms break: Aug 15
Cold-Front: Oct 15
Possible Bottom: Jan 16 Bottoming Apr 16
in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16 Sunny: Aug 16
Sunny: Jan 17
Warm: Mar 17

S-D Glut: Nov 15
S-D Shortage: Jul 16
Hot: Nov 16 Cooling: Dec 16

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1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronics Pricing: weekly trends for
PC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs

Price Trend:
Rising

1 Quarter Moving Average

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip History: Industry Landmarks
KLA 2020, Circa 1984
The tool that sparked
the yield management
revolution: This was
the first of the 20xx
series that would
drive a major
revolution in fab
yields, while taking
Korea to the top of
the memory market
Make a Gift: Your donation helps
our efforts to archive
VLSIresearch … intelligence tosupportbetter decisions fasterthe history of semiconductors
make

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: Nikon LithoVision
and KLA-Tencor’s SPIE Dinner
Focal Points:
Nikon LithoVision Takeaways:







EUV introduction still a question of ‘when’ not
‘if’
Big data
EPE (Edge Placement Error) role
Bottom-up processing will be a new era for
Moore’s Law
CoO: it’s not the whole picture
Stress induced overlay error

KLA-Tencor’s SPIE Dinner Takeaways:





It’s become quite a notable addition to the
open events at SPIE
Britt Turkot, who is Senior Principal Engineer,
EUV Program Manager at Intel
Challenges and readiness of EUV for
manufacturing
Two primary factors holding back EUV from
manufacturing

Maxims:



VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

The tipping point for a sale never rests on a
single factor
Price is last decision factor in a sale

Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISON
New: VLSI's 1Q17 Review and Forecast Update ... with
Andrea Lati of VLSIresearch
DRAM and Flash Memory Market 2017 ... with Jim
Handy
Cognitive Compute ... with Mukesh Khare of IBM
Intel at 10nm ... a conversation with Mark Bohr of Intel
Emergent memories and the new materials needed …
200mm fab capacity utilization reaches critical levels

weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSIresearch appears next @
• Frontiers of Characterization and
Metrology for Nanoelectronics
– Mar 21-23, 2017; Monterey, CA
– Dan is giving keynote

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks soared to fresh new highs for the year,

easily outperforming the market. Semiconductors +1.4%, Equipment +1.6%, EDA +0.3%, Electronic Materials
+0.4%. Hottest Stocks: MagnaChip Semiconductor, NVIDIA, Xcerra, ASE, Cabot Microelectronics, and Samsung
Electronics.

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

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Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Sem iconductor Stocks

Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Cavium

1.1%

21

Forw ard P/E

IDM

Sem iconductor Stocks

Intel

-1.8%

12

IBM

-1.2%

12

Micron

2.5%

8

Infineon

4.5%

19

Samsung Electronics

5.5%



InvenSense

0.2%

103

STMicroelectronics

2.4%

20

MagnaChip Semiconductor

13.5%

10

Toshiba

-8.7%



Maxim

1.3%

20

MaxLinear

-0.2%

17

Chip stocks increased 1.4%,
claiming four of the top six spots.
Foundry & Subcons soared 4.3%.
Fabless gained 1.5% while IDMs
ended the week flat.

Foundry & Subcon
ASE

6.2%

12

MediaTek

1.6%



SMIC

5.4%

76

NVIDIA

7.0%

32

TSMC

5.0%

14

Panasonic

-0.3%

15

UMC

0.5%

12

Qualcomm

-1.9%

12

Silicon Laboratories

3.2%

22

Fab-lite to Fabless
AMD

-3.0%

47

Skyw orks

-0.3%

14

Analog Devices

1.3%

19

Texas Instruments

2.3%

21

Broadcom

-2.3%

14

Xilinx

0.9%

AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASX
Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC InvenSense
INVN Micron Technology MU Panasonic PC
MagnaChip Semiconductor MX
Maxim
MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDA
Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics
005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX

25

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Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Applied Materials

3.0%

14

Advantest

-2.5%



ASM International

2.4%

ASML

2.3%

15

Teradyne

3.7%

16

24

Xcerra

6.4%

KLA-Tencor

16

1.6%

16

FormFactor

1.8%

11

Lam Research

4.9%

15

Assembly:

Nanometrics

3.7%

20

BESI

0.0%



Nikon

-1.4%



Kulicke & Soffa

1.6%

17

Oerlikon

-0.6%



ASM Pacific Technology

1.7%

Rudolph Technologies

4.2%

17

TEL

-2.6%



Cadence

Ultratech

1.3%

19

Veeco Instruments

4.2%

Equipment stocks jumped 1.6%, extending
their gains for the eleventh consecutive
week. Test surged 2.5%, buoyed by Xcerra.
WFE gained 1.9% and Assembly rose
1.1%.

Equipm ent Stocks
Wafer Process:

Equipm ent Stocks
Test:

EDA Stocks
1.5%

22

Mentor Graphics

0.4%

19

Synopsys

-1.0%

20

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

EDA stocks eked a gain of 0.3%.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography
ASML
ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE
Semiconductor BESIY.PK Cadence CNDS
KLA-Tencor KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX
Xcerra XCRA Mentor Graphics MENT
Nanometrics NANO Nikon 7731 Oerlikon
OBH.SG
Rudolph Technologies RTEC
Synopsys SNPS
Teradyne TER Tokyo
8035
Electron Limited
Ultratech UTEK
VECO
Veeco

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials'
Stocks

Electronic Materials etched a 0.4% gain.
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

0.5%

21

BASF

0.5%

Cabot Microelectronics

6.2%

DNP
Dow Electronic Materials

Air Products

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

JSR

0.1%



15

Shin-Etsu

-0.1%



21

SOITEC

-3.9%



-1.2%



Tokyo Ohka

1.1%



0.3%

4

Electronic Materials' Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Air Products APD
BASF BASFY
Cabot Microelectronics CCMP DNP 7912
Dow Electronic Materials DOW JSR 4185
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186



Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

79.9
82.0
80.8
82.7
82.0
80.1
81.9
82.0
83.9
83.4
84.2
86.8
85.6
87.4
88.4
89.6
92.2
98.3
99.7
100.7
100.0
100.4
102.2
103.6
108.0
105.1
107.1
107.5
107.2
108.2
109.0
109.4

Min Growth

84.6
86.1
86.1
86.7
84.7
84.2
85.9
86.8
89.1
87.5
87.4
88.1
87.9
90.5
93.3
95.4
92.8
96.0
97.3
100.4
100.0
100.9
103.4
104.1
107.3
108.4
108.8
110.2
111.7
112.0
113.5
115.3

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Down

86.6
89.3
89.6
90.5
86.6
88.7
89.8
91.7
92.8
90.5
91.0
91.2
89.2
90.9
94.3
96.4
93.5
100.0
100.0
102.4
100.0
100.3
102.6
102.2
106.3
106.8
106.6
107.0
108.2
107.7
108.9
110.5

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks

Max Growth

12-Aug-16
19-Aug-16
26-Aug-16
02-Sep-16
09-Sep-16
16-Sep-16
23-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
07-Oct-16
14-Oct-16
21-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
04-Nov-16
11-Nov-16
18-Nov-16
25-Nov-16
02-Dec-16
09-Dec-16
16-Dec-16
23-Dec-16
30-Dec-16
06-Jan-17
13-Jan-17
20-Jan-17
27-Jan-17
03-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
03-Mar-17
10-Mar-17
17-Mar-17

Chip
Stocks

Companies
Up

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close

0.3%
5.2%
1.8%
1.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
3.7%
3.5%
0.0%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
3.5%
8.5%
0.9%
-4.4%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
-0.4%
1.3%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
2.0%
-0.6%
0.6%
0.3%

37
45
29
44
7
29
40
42
41
41
33
33
11
38
44
44
16
53
33
44
13
36
45
26
52
23
28
39
36
24
36
40

17.2%
13.2%
7.0%
9.1%
5.5%
13.9%
10.7%
10.2%
11.8%
11.8%
5.9%
14.1%
14.7%
17.7%
30.3%
15.8%
12.6%
46.7%
10.3%
19.3%
10.9%
6.7%
15.7%
13.2%
17.1%
14.7%
11.0%
12.2%
21.7%
14.5%
7.8%
13.5%

-19
-12
-27
-14
-48
-26
-15
-15
-14
-14
-23
-24
-45
-17
-12
-13
-39
-3
-24
-11
-40
-20
-12
-31
-4
-33
-27
-18
-21
-33
-19
-17

-16.2%
-3.4%
-7.9%
-5.2%
-21.5%
-6.1%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-9.8%
-27.1%
-10.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-11.8%
-6.9%
-10.7%
-4.2%
-36.5%
-8.2%
-6.5%
-14.1%
-13.7%
-10.5%
-14.1%
-22.7%
-5.9%
-7.7%
-2.7%
-8.7%

33.4%
16.6%
14.9%
14.3%
27.0%
20.0%
13.9%
13.7%
22.0%
22.0%
15.7%
41.2%
25.2%
24.5%
35.3%
18.2%
24.4%
53.6%
21.0%
23.5%
47.4%
14.9%
22.2%
27.3%
30.8%
25.2%
25.1%
34.9%
27.6%
22.2%
10.5%
22.2%

97.6
97.5
96.9
97.4
95.0
95.5
96.7
96.8
96.2
95.3
95.7
95.0
93.1
96.7
97.5
98.9
97.9
100.9
100.9
101.1
100.0
101.7
101.6
101.5
102.5
102.6
103.5
105.0
105.7
106.4
106.0
106.2

0.1%
0.0%
-0.7%
0.5%
-2.4%
0.5%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.7%
-1.9%
3.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-1.0%
3.1%
-0.1%
0.3%
-1.1%
1.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.2%

Weekly Growth

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

81.1
85.3
86.8
87.9
85.2
83.7
86.8
89.8
89.8
91.8
92.0
91.5
91.1
94.3
102.4
103.3
98.8
100.7
100.9
101.2
100.0
101.2
102.5
102.0
103.4
108.5
109.1
112.9
115.2
114.5
115.3
115.6

1.5%
3.1%
0.3%
1.0%
-4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.9%
3.8%
2.2%
-3.0%
7.0%
0.1%
2.4%
-2.4%
0.3%
2.2%
-0.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.5%
1.1%
1.4%

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks
1.1%
1.7%
0.0%
0.7%
-2.4%
-0.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2.6%
-1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.7%
3.5%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.3%
1.6%

1.2%
2.6%
-1.4%
2.3%
-0.8%
-2.4%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.0%
3.0%
-1.4%
2.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
6.7%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.8%
1.4%
4.2%
-2.7%
2.0%
0.3%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
March 10, 2017 & Before
Marvell Technology Group' (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
B E Semicon's (BESIY) CEO Richard Blickman on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dialog Semiconductor's (DLGNF) CEO Jalal Bagherli on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) CEO Meg Whitman on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
HP (HPQ) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Xcerra's (XCRA) CEO Dave Tacelli On Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call TranscriptMicron Technology's (MU)
Management Presents at Susquehanna Semi, Storage & Technology Conference Call (Transcript)
Semtech's (SMTC) CEO Mohan Maheswaran on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
QUALCOMM's (QCOM) CEO Steven Mollenkopf Hosts 2017 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (Transcript)
IDT's (IDT) CEO Shmuel Jonas on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Veeco Instruments (VECO) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cohu, Inc.'s (COHU) CEO Luis Müller On Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Synopsys' (SNPS) CEO Aart de Geus on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Analog Devices (ADI) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Photronics' (PLAB) CEO Peter Kirlin On Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Semiconductor Manufacturing International's (SMI) CEO Tzu-Yin Chiu on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Amkor's (AMKR) CEO Steve Kelley on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ON Semiconductor (ON) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
MagnaChip Semiconductor's (MX) CEO YJ Kim on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Intermolecular's (IMI) CEO Chris Kramer on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
MaxLinear's (MXL) CEO Kishore Seendripu on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
FormFactor's (FORM) CEO Mike Slessor on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Orbotech's (ORBK) CEO Asher Levy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Microchip Technology's (MCHP) CEO Steve Sanghi on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Nanometrics' (NANO) CEO Timothy Stultz on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cypress Semiconductor (CY) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Rudolph Technologies' (RTEC) CEO Michael Plisinski on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Kulicke and Soffa Industries' (KLIC) CEO Fusen Chen on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Entegris' (ENTG) CEO Bertrand Loy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Infineon Technologies' (IFNNF) CEO Reinhard Ploss on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Qorvo (QRVO) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Maxim Integrated Products' (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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KLA-Tencor's (KLAC) CEO Rick Wallace on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Teradyne's (TER) CEO Mark Jagiela on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASX) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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Xilinx's (XLNX) CEO Moshe Gavrielov on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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