Semi WEEK: Order activity hovered at a hot 86 degrees; KLA 2020, Circa 1984; Stocks were mixed

Semi WEEK: Order activity hovered at a hot 86 degrees; KLA 2020, Circa 1984; Stocks were mixed

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Description: Surging NAND prices kept VLSIresearch’s CPPI rally alive. Semi Sales: Ended February on a strong note. Chip making stocks had a mixed week .

 
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Contents:
Semiconductor WEEK:

March 3, 2017

An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI
Chip Market Research Services

The Chip Insider

Business is in Full Bloom...
• Order activity hovered at a hot 86 degrees for the fourth
straight week
• Memory remains red hot
• Surging NAND prices kept VLSIresearch’s CPPI rally alive
• Utilizations are higher than a year ago same time




Semiconductor Analytics
Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales: Ended February on a strong note
– Week-over-Year Sales Jumped
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast Held positive
– IC Weather1 Report: Sunny
– IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Shortage




Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn

Strategy and Tactics: The case for moderated cycles.
Maxims: You can’t afford abusive relationships.

Chip History


Industry Landmarks: KLA 2020, Circa 1984

Semiconductor Stocks



Chip making stocks had a mixed week
Chip stocks slipped




Equipment stocks rose for the ninth consecutive week






VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

IDMs had another hot week
Assembly soared

EDA stocks fell but held on to the number one spot
Electronic Materials jumped to a new high
Hottest Stocks: BESI, Micron, SOITEC,
STMicroelectronics, Broadcom, Samsung Electronics

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSI’s Customer Satisfaction Survey has begun!
• Coverage includes:
– IC Mfg. Equipment
• Test
• Assembly
• Fab Equipment

– Critical Subsystems

• Click here to get your ratings
in before the survey closes on
March 31st or go to
www.vlsiresearch.com and
click the 10 BEST logo in the
upper right hand corner

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File
March 2017
Business is in Full Bloom...


This issue contains the latest
forecast.




Order activity hovered at a hot 86
degrees for the fourth straight week
Memory remains red hot
Surging NAND prices kept
VLSIresearch’s CPPI rally alive

Call us to access more details

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider® Graphics
Utilizations are higher
than a year ago same
time

Capacity Utilization Rates: chart gives rolling averages for
semiconductor wafer fab, test, and assembly

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Analytics
This Week in the Supply Chain:
W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year

Semi Market results from last week:
• Semi Sales: Ended February on a strong note





Week-over-Year Sales Jumped
– IC Sales 1Q17 Nowcast:
Held positive
IC Weather1 Report:
Sunny
IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics:
Shortage

• Electronics Price Trend: Rising
Overall Semi Sales Status: in Upturn
Storms break: Aug 15
Cold-Front: Oct 15
Possible Bottom: Jan 16 Bottoming Apr 16
in Upturn, Warm: Jul 16 Sunny: Aug 16
Sunny: Jan 17

S-D Glut: Nov 15
S-D Shortage: Jul 16
Hot: Nov 16 Cooling: Dec 16

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1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronics Pricing: weekly trends for
PC notebooks Tablets Smartphones Cell phones Digital Cameras Appliances TVs

Price Trend:
Rising

1 Quarter Moving Average

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip History: Industry Landmarks
KLA 2020, Circa 1984
The tool that sparked
the yield management
revolution: This was
the first of the 20xx
series that would
drive a major
revolution in fab
yields, while taking
Korea to the top of
the memory market
Make a Gift: Your donation helps
our efforts to archive
VLSIresearch … intelligence tosupportbetter decisions fasterthe history of semiconductors
make

2/23/17

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

The Chip Insider®
Strategy & Tactics
Strategy and Tactics: The case for
moderated cycles. Maxims: You can’t afford
abusive relationships.
Focal Points:
The case for moderated cycles: It is
Different This Time?
• The “It’s different this time” argument
• The best arguments for and against the
future being less cyclical:
• Why this time may be different:
• Why this time MAY NOT be different:

• Significant concerns
• The bottom line
Maxims:
• You can’t afford abusive relationships
– Why it’s bad for suppliers and customers

Chip History: Industry Legends
• SPIE is next week, so let’s go back in
time
• See how a lithography legend describes
innovation and how it really happens.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Contact us to get the full report and more
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Popular Interviews and Papers
Join the conversation at weVISON
New: VLSI's 1Q17 Review and Forecast Update ... with
Andrea Lati of VLSIresearch
DRAM and Flash Memory Market 2017 ... with Jim
Handy
Cognitive Compute ... with Mukesh Khare of IBM
Intel at 10nm ... a conversation with Mark Bohr of Intel
Emergent memories and the new materials needed …
200mm fab capacity utilization reaches critical levels

weSRCH.com
reaches >500K Users
who view >10M Pages per Month.
Alexa ranks it among the world’s top 20K
websites — top 5K in the United States.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

2/23/17
Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

VLSIresearch appears next @
• Semicon China

• Frontiers of Characterization and
– March 14 – 16. 2017; Shanghai, China
Metrology for Nanoelectronics
– Mar 21-23, 2017; Monterey, CA
– Dan is giving keynote

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semi Stock Week:

Chip making stocks had a mixed week with Equipment and

Materials stocks hitting new highs. Semiconductors -0.5%, Equipment +0.2%, EDA -0.6%, Electronic Materials
+1.0%. Hottest Stocks: BESI, Micron, SOITEC, STMicroelectronics, Broadcom, Samsung Electronics.

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor WEEK:
How to subscribe

Go to VLSIresearch.com

Click Here to open a
Subscription Window

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiconductor Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Sem iconductor Stocks

Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Cavium

2.9%

19

Forw ard P/E

IDM

Sem iconductor Stocks

Intel

-1.7%

12

IBM

-0.7%

13

Micron

10.0%

8

Infineon

1.9%

18

Samsung Electronics

3.7%



InvenSense

1.0%

103

STMicroelectronics

4.5%

20

MagnaChip Semiconductor

-3.3%

9

Toshiba

-4.7%



Maxim

-1.6%

19

MaxLinear

-2.9%

17

Chip stocks slipped 0.5%. IDMs had
another hot week, jumping 2.4% on
the back of Micron, which increased its
Q2 guidance. Fabless stocks lost
0.9%. Foundry & Subcons tumbled
2.5%.

Foundry & Subcon
ASE

-0.6%

11

MediaTek

-2.0%



SMIC

-1.8%

14

NVIDIA

-3.0%

29

TSMC

-3.4%

14

Panasonic

-0.3%

15

UMC

-4.4%

12

Qualcomm

-1.4%

12

Silicon Laboratories

-4.9%

21

Fab-lite to Fabless
AMD

-7.7%

45

Skyw orks

0.2%

13

Analog Devices

1.8%

21

Texas Instruments

0.8%

20

Broadcom

3.8%

14

Xilinx

-0.4%

AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI ASE ASX
Broadcom AVGO Cavium CAVM IBM
Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC InvenSense
INVN Micron Technology MU Panasonic PC
MagnaChip Semiconductor MX
Maxim
MXIM MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDA
Qualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics
005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB
Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI
STMicroelectronics STM
Texas Instruments TXN Toshiba 6502
TSMC TSM UMC UMC Xilinx XLINX

24

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company
Weekly Gains
Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Applied Materials

1.5%

13

Advantest

-0.6%



ASM International

-0.5%

ASML

0.4%

15

Teradyne

-0.2%

16

23

Xcerra

-2.7%

15

KLA-Tencor

0.1%

15

FormFactor

-0.4%

Lam Research

-0.1%

14

Assembly:

Nanometrics

-5.1%

18

BESI

14.5%



Nikon

-1.5%



Kulicke & Soffa

-1.7%

17

Oerlikon

-2.3%



ASM Pacific Technology

0.1%

Rudolph Technologies

-3.7%

17

TEL

2.8%



Cadence

Ultratech

0.5%

19

Veeco Instruments

0.0%

Equipment etched a 0.2% gain as they hit a
nine week run. Assembly soared 4.3% on the
back of a high flying BESI. WFE slipped 0.7%
and Test fell 1.2%.

11

Equipm ent Stocks
Wafer Process:

Equipm ent Stocks
Test:

EDA Stocks
-0.6%

21

Mentor Graphics

0.3%

18

Synopsys

-1.4%

20

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

EDA stocks lost 0.6%, yet still holding on to
their number one position.
Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATE
ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML
ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK
Cadence CNDS KLA-Tencor KLAC
Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX
Xcerra XCRA Mentor Graphics MENT
Nanometrics NANO Nikon 7731 Oerlikon OBH.SG
Rudolph Technologies RTEC
Synopsys SNPS
TER
Teradyne
Tokyo Electron Limited 8035
UTEK
Ultratech
Veeco VECO

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Electronic Materials Stocks:
Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company

Weekly Gains
Electronic Materials'
Stocks

Price
Change

Price
Change

Forw ard P/E

Forw ard P/E

Air Products

-1.0%

21

JSR

-2.1%



BASF

3.6%

Cabot Microelectronics

0.7%

15

Shin-Etsu

0.5%



20

SOITEC

6.5%



DNP

1.0%



Tokyo Ohka

0.1%



Dow Electronic Materials

-0.4%

4

Electronic Materials' Stocks

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Electronic Materials were this week’s top
performers, jumping 1.0%.
Air Products APD
BASF BASFY
Cabot Microelectronics CCMP DNP 7912
Dow Electronic Materials DOW JSR 4185
Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA
Tokyo Ohka 4186



Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Range of
Growth

S&P 500

S&P 500
Growth

80.7
79.0
79.9
82.0
80.8
82.7
82.0
80.1
81.9
82.0
83.9
83.4
84.2
86.8
85.6
87.4
88.4
89.6
92.2
98.3
99.7
100.7
100.0
100.4
102.2
103.6
108.0
105.1
107.1
107.5
107.2
108.2

Min Growth

82.8
83.7
84.6
86.1
86.1
86.7
84.7
84.2
85.9
86.8
89.1
87.5
87.4
88.1
87.9
90.5
93.3
95.4
92.8
96.0
97.3
100.4
100.0
100.9
103.4
104.1
107.3
108.4
108.8
110.2
111.7
112.0

EDA
Stocks

Companies
Down

83.9
85.3
86.6
89.3
89.6
90.5
86.6
88.7
89.8
91.7
92.8
90.5
91.0
91.2
89.2
90.9
94.3
96.4
93.5
100.0
100.0
102.4
100.0
100.3
102.6
102.2
106.3
106.8
106.6
107.0
108.2
107.7

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks

Max Growth

29-Jul-16
05-Aug-16
12-Aug-16
19-Aug-16
26-Aug-16
02-Sep-16
09-Sep-16
16-Sep-16
23-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
07-Oct-16
14-Oct-16
21-Oct-16
28-Oct-16
04-Nov-16
11-Nov-16
18-Nov-16
25-Nov-16
02-Dec-16
09-Dec-16
16-Dec-16
23-Dec-16
30-Dec-16
06-Jan-17
13-Jan-17
20-Jan-17
27-Jan-17
03-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
03-Mar-17

Chip
Stocks

Companies
Up

VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks
The Prior
Week's
Close

-3.5%
1.8%
0.3%
5.2%
1.8%
1.2%
-3.1%
-1.8%
3.7%
3.5%
0.0%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.6%
-0.4%
3.5%
8.5%
0.9%
-4.4%
2.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
-0.4%
1.3%
5.0%
0.6%
3.5%
2.0%
-0.6%

32
31
37
45
29
44
7
29
40
42
41
41
33
33
11
38
44
44
16
53
33
44
13
36
45
26
52
23
28
39
36
24

17.5%
26.2%
17.2%
13.2%
7.0%
9.1%
5.5%
13.9%
10.7%
10.2%
11.8%
11.8%
5.9%
14.1%
14.7%
17.7%
30.3%
15.8%
12.6%
46.7%
10.3%
19.3%
10.9%
6.7%
15.7%
13.2%
17.1%
14.7%
11.0%
12.2%
21.7%
14.5%

-26
-25
-19
-12
-27
-14
-48
-26
-15
-15
-14
-14
-23
-24
-45
-17
-12
-13
-39
-3
-24
-11
-40
-20
-12
-31
-4
-33
-27
-18
-21
-33

-11.0%
-9.0%
-16.2%
-3.4%
-7.9%
-5.2%
-21.5%
-6.1%
-3.2%
-3.5%
-10.2%
-10.2%
-9.8%
-27.1%
-10.5%
-6.8%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-11.8%
-6.9%
-10.7%
-4.2%
-36.5%
-8.2%
-6.5%
-14.1%
-13.7%
-10.5%
-14.1%
-22.7%
-5.9%
-7.7%

28.5%
35.2%
33.4%
16.6%
14.9%
14.3%
27.0%
20.0%
13.9%
13.7%
22.0%
22.0%
15.7%
41.2%
25.2%
24.5%
35.3%
18.2%
24.4%
53.6%
21.0%
23.5%
47.4%
14.9%
22.2%
27.3%
30.8%
25.2%
25.1%
34.9%
27.6%
22.2%

97.1
97.5
97.6
97.5
96.9
97.4
95.0
95.5
96.7
96.8
96.2
95.3
95.7
95.0
93.1
96.7
97.5
98.9
97.9
100.9
100.9
101.1
100.0
101.7
101.6
101.5
102.5
102.6
103.5
105.0
105.7
106.4

-0.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.7%
0.5%
-2.4%
0.5%
1.2%
0.2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.7%
-1.9%
3.8%
0.8%
1.4%
-1.0%
3.1%
-0.1%
0.3%
-1.1%
1.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.7%

Weekly Growth

EDA
Stocks

Chip
Stocks

79.4
80.9
81.1
85.3
86.8
87.9
85.2
83.7
86.8
89.8
89.8
91.8
92.0
91.5
91.1
94.3
102.4
103.3
98.8
100.7
100.9
101.2
100.0
101.2
102.5
102.0
103.4
108.5
109.1
112.9
115.2
114.5

4.1%
1.7%
1.5%
3.1%
0.3%
1.0%
-4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
2.1%
1.2%
-2.4%
0.5%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.9%
3.8%
2.2%
-3.0%
7.0%
0.1%
2.4%
-2.4%
0.3%
2.2%
-0.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.4%
1.1%
-0.5%

Equipment Materials
Stocks
Stocks
0.5%
1.2%
1.1%
1.7%
0.0%
0.7%
-2.4%
-0.6%
2.0%
1.0%
2.6%
-1.8%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2.3%
-2.7%
3.5%
1.3%
3.2%
-0.4%
0.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%

2.7%
-2.2%
1.2%
2.6%
-1.4%
2.3%
-0.8%
-2.4%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.0%
3.0%
-1.4%
2.2%
1.1%
1.4%
2.8%
6.7%
1.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
0.4%
1.8%
1.4%
4.2%
-2.7%
2.0%
0.3%
-0.3%
1.0%

VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster

Content approved for public release with attribution. Copyright © 2017 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

Links to Conference Call Transcripts
March 3rd
Marvell Technology Group' (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Broadcom's (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
B E Semicon's (BESIY) CEO Richard Blickman on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Dialog Semiconductor's (DLGNF) CEO Jalal Bagherli on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
February 24, 2017 & Before
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) CEO Meg Whitman on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
HP (HPQ) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Xcerra's (XCRA) CEO Dave Tacelli On Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Veeco Instruments (VECO) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cohu, Inc.'s (COHU) CEO Luis Müller On Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Synopsys' (SNPS) CEO Aart de Geus on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Applied Materials (AMAT) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Analog Devices (ADI) Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Photronics' (PLAB) CEO Peter Kirlin On Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Semiconductor Manufacturing International's (SMI) CEO Tzu-Yin Chiu on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Amkor's (AMKR) CEO Steve Kelley on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
ON Semiconductor (ON) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
MagnaChip Semiconductor's (MX) CEO YJ Kim on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Intermolecular's (IMI) CEO Chris Kramer on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
MaxLinear's (MXL) CEO Kishore Seendripu on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
FormFactor's (FORM) CEO Mike Slessor on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Orbotech's (ORBK) CEO Asher Levy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Microchip Technology's (MCHP) CEO Steve Sanghi on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Nanometrics' (NANO) CEO Timothy Stultz on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cypress Semiconductor (CY) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
Rudolph Technologies' (RTEC) CEO Michael Plisinski on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Kulicke and Soffa Industries' (KLIC) CEO Fusen Chen on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Entegris' (ENTG) CEO Bertrand Loy on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Infineon Technologies' (IFNNF) CEO Reinhard Ploss on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Qorvo (QRVO) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Electro Scientific Industries' (ESIO) CEO Michael Burger on Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Axcelis Technologies' (ACLS) CEO Mary Puma on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cirrus Logic (CRUS) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Brooks Automation's (BRKS) CEO Steve Schwartz on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Advanced Energy Industries' (AEIS) CEO Yuval Wasserman on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Integrated Device Technology (IDTI) Q3 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Microsemi's (MSCC) CEO James Peterson on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Maxim Integrated Products' (MXIM) CEO Tunc Doluca on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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Links to Conference Call Transcripts
National Instruments' (NATI) CEO Alex Davern on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
KLA-Tencor's (KLAC) CEO Rick Wallace on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Teradyne's (TER) CEO Mark Jagiela on Q4 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Cabot Microelectronics' (CCMP) CEO David Li on Q1 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
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