5G Outlook and Verticals

5G Outlook and Verticals

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Description: 5G benefits and timetable: - What will 5G bring?: A unique infrastructure to meet all needs. A new flexible & programmable radio interface able to address diverse requirements, reduced latency (1 ms). Very high throughputs and capacity, use of spectrum >6GHz.

Evolved Mobile BroadBand (eMBB): higher throughputs. Massive Machine Type Communication: the capability to support a very important number of connections of objects with limited battery life and low-cost requirements. Smart building, logistics, tracking, and fleet management.

Critical Machine Type Communication: very small latencies and reliability. Traffic safety and control, industrial applications and control, remote manufacturing, training, surgery.

 
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Domain:  High Tech Category: Mobile 
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Contents:
Mobile Networks Forum

5G outlook and verticals
5G in 2020… or before?

17 November 2016

5G development and timetable
5G services as soon as 2018?

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 3

Mobile generations: timeline, standards and services
Timeline
~1980

~1990

Generations
1G
Mobile telephony

~2000

~2010

~2020

2G

3G

4G

5G

Digital mobile telephony

Mobile data

Mobile broadband

Gigabit wireless services &
digitisation of the economy

LTE

5G-NR

+ Broadband data,
Low latency

Gigabit data,
IoT, verticals,
Ultra-low latency,
security

Full-IP,
OFDMA

SDN/NFV,
Network slicing, massive
MIMO, mmWave,
Licensed & unlicensed
spectrum…

Standards & radio interfaces
NMT, AMPS,
TACS

GSM,

WCDMA,

IS-95, PDC

CDMA 2000,
TD-SCDMA

Services & characteristics
Voice

+ SMS,
low-speed data

+ High-speed data

Digital technology,
International roaming,
SIM card, packed data

Circuit & packet switched
WCDMA

Key technologies
Analog technology,
Mobility management

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 4

5G benefits and timetable
What will 5G bring?
 A unique infrastructure to meet all needs
 A new flexible & programmable radio interface able to address diverse
requirements, reduced latency (1 ms)
 Very high throughputs and capacity, use of spectrum >6GHz
 Evolved Mobile BroadBand (eMBB): higher throughputs
 Massive Machine Type Communication: capability to support a very
important number of connections of objects with limited battery life and
low cost requirements. Smart building, logistics, tracking and fleet
management
 Critical Machine Type Communication: very small latencies and
reliability. Traffic safety and control, industrial applications and control,
remote manufacturing, training, surgery

3 main use cases of 5G and their specific requirements

Source: China Academy of telecommunication Technology

When?
 Before 2020: tests, limited commercial services (fixed wireless access)
 2020: introduction of first real 5G services with (improved MIMO, more
carrier aggregation, …)
 2025: all functionalities deployed, significant mmWave deployments
Source: SK Telecom

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 5

Requirements before standardizing: full availability, latency, reliability
• Improved throughputs but also about higher mobility (up to
500 km/h), lower energy efficiency, improved latency in the
range of 1 ms
• Flexibility : operation on any kind of spectrum (low/high/very
high)

• Virtualization of network functions and SDR to foster
convergence of multiple Radio Access Technologies, either
3GPP based or not (such as WiFi)
• Tight integration with 4G, thanks to an adaptive air interface
with both backward and forward compatibility
• Network architecture to go beyond the traditional cellular
architecture with ultra densified networks, user equipment
serving as relays, broadcast communication …

Performance objectives for 5G

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 6

5G development: standardization is a long process
3GPP
Several players with different interest are involved
 Regulation authorities and standardization bodies
 Mobile Network operators and service providers
 Equipment (infrastructure and terminals) and software vendors
A roadmap aligned on the ITU-R deadline for recognition as a an
International Mobile Telecommunication system. Deadline set for 2019
A phased development approach must secure early 5G deployments
around 2020
 Initial focus on TDD, frequency bands between 6 and 40 GHz with LTE
air interface, demonstration at Winter Olympics game in South Korea in
2018 and first commercial deployments in 2020
 In practice first 5G commercial networks should still be operated on
frequencies bellow 6 GHz. Higher frequencies will be harnessed later on
between 2020 and 2030 (except fixed wireless access)
 Phase 1: Release 15, phase 2 (full IMT 2020, NR): Release 16

Source: 3GPP November 2016

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 7

5G challenges (1/2)
Network slicing
 Network slicing (network virtualization) is a key feature to enable
several players with diverging needs to coexist on the same
infrastructures with guaranteed level of QoS.

• A native SDN / NFV based architecture
• 3 independent layers (infrastructure, business enablement &
application)
• An orchestrator to create independent slices and allocate
resources of each layer to fulfill specific use case

5G business models
 Mobile operators are looking at new ways to monetise 5G: pay-peruse, Private network with dedicated spectrum operated by MNOs…
 IoT challenge
 Will 5G really drive industry transformation?

Source: 3GPP

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 8

5G challenges (2/2)
Spectrum for 5G
 Europe: 3.4-3.8 GHz, 24.5-27.5 GHz, 31.8-33.4 GHz and 40.5-43.5 GHz
 More than 10 GHz allocated to mobile in the USA in new bands

More sharing needed. Facilitated by:
- High path loss in mmWave, antenna technology, HetNets
- Quantity of spectrum available will provide more options

Source: MIC

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 9

5G tests
Many trials and collaborations were announced in 2016 with speeds of tens of Gbps:
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will probably be the first « 5G »: tests will start in 2017 in the USA
Commercial service likely in 2018-2019 in the USA and maybe in South Korea
• AT&T tested 5G in Austin, Texas in Q2 2016. Field trials of 5G are expected before year-end.
• Verizon is to test 5G in the company's innovation centers in Waltham, Mass., and San Francisco. The MNO targets 4K
TV for its 5G tests.
• Plans to use 28 GHz and 37 GHz bands for this service. Probably for urban areas
• Verizon Wireless announced in September 2016 that it plans to compete with cable operators. First commercial deployment in Boston?

• SK Telecom showed demos using the 28 GHz band and is still talking about its plans to be the first to debut
“commercial” 5G service in time for the 2018 Winter Olympics.

• In February 2016, KT collaborated with Ericsson and managed to transmit data at the speed of 25.3Gbps by using
mmWave.

9

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 10

Major 5G initiatives and focus
Europe

The 5G PPP is part of the EU Commission Horizon 2020 programme. With 19 projects involving academic research
centres and industry players, it is expected to foster innovation in Europe.

South Korea

In South Korea, the 5G mobile strategy was defined as early as January 2014 by the Korean Government (Ministry
of Science, ICT and Future Planning).
2014-2020. 1.6 trillion KRW joint investment from both the Government and the private sector.

Japan

The 5G Mobile Forum (5GMF, www.5gmf.jp) was established late in September 2014. The Radio Policy Vision
Council of the MIC stated that strong cooperation among industries, academia and government was essential for
early realisation of 5G.

USA

February 2014: 5G Americas began work on a technical group project on “promoting Americas leadership in 5G
mobile broadband”.
new network architectures, spectral efficiency improvements, dynamic coordination from Baseband Unit (BBU)
pooling, Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) and densification (cell splitting).

China

Based on the original IMT-Advanced Promotion Group, the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group was launched by the
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the
Ministry of Science and Technology in February 2013.
The platform’s mission is to promote the development of 5G technologies in China and to facilitate cooperation with
foreign companies and organisations.
Source: IDATE in 5G full steam ahead, November 2015

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 11

5G in Europe: 5G PPP - 3 or 4 phases (2014-2020)
• First phase (2014-2016)
• 19 projects
• 1 Coordination & support action, 15 Research & Innovation
projects, 3 Innovation projects
• 165 organisations involved
• 128 MEUR
• Second phase: optimisation (2016-2017)

• Large scale trials (2019-2020)









New air interfaces
Easier and more flexible network management
Backhaul / fronthaul improvements
Latency reduction
Network slicing
Improving collaboration between cells
How to implement security in the system

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 12

5G in Asia
China
• China is running collaborative research programs, which are now starting to become
more accessible for non-Chinese organisations. The main programs are:
• IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group
• 863 Research Program
• Future Forum

South Korea
• Similar like in Japan 5G activities in Korea are coordinated by 5G Forum, which has
members from industry and the research community. This group has developed rather
detailed technical reports on the 5G system with a focus on radio systems.
• Strong push by the government
• Winter Olympic games in 2018

Japan
• Japan focused 5G activities in The 5G Mobile Communications Promotion Forum
(http://5gmf.jp/en/), which is bringing together industry, standards bodies and the
academic domain. 5GMF developed white papers in particular on the 5G vision.
• 2020 olympics

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 13

5G in the Americas: 5G Americas and players’ push
5G activities are mainly undertaken by individual industry companies, industry
associations, and the academic domain
The main activities are on-going at:
• Intel Strategic Research Alliance (ISRA),
• NYU Wireless Research Center [24] mainly dealing with the investigation of millimetre
wave systems
• 4G Americas involves major industries from the US and has produced several white
papers on 5G
• Stepped into pre-standardisation work for 5G very early
• Many white papers published
• MBB Evolution towards 5G
• 5G spectrum recommendations
• 5G Technology Evolution Recommendations

FCC quickly identified 5G spectrum
• In July 2016 approved an order making the US the first country in the world to open up
28, 37 & 39 GHz bands for 5G
• 600 MHz band: difficult and expensive process (reverse auction)
• Citizens Broadband Radio service in the 3.5 GHz band as “landmarks in using new
sharing tools to open up more mid-band spectrum.” Wheeler noted that it is
“interesting that this is apparently where Europe sees its 5G developing.”

5G and verticals
Expectations and likely adoption by verticals

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 15

Verticals targeted by 5G
NGMN and the regional associations have
identified various promising vertical
sectors for 5G
Automotive, Energy, eHealth, Media & Entertainment,
Factory of the Future look promising
Transport & logistics, Agriculture & forestry could also
contribute to 5G growth

Creation of the 5G Automotive Association
Founded by Audi, BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel,
Nokia and Qualcomm in September 2016
 Defining and harmonizing use cases
 Supporting standardization and regulatory bodies
 Addressing vehicle-to-everything technology requirements
 Running joint innovation and development projects

Source: Bosch

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 16

5G and the Automotive Sector
Key requirements




High bandwidth for infotainment services
Low bandwidth uplink communication for telematics, security and insurance services
Ultra low latencies for automation and high reliability for autonomous driving services

Barriers

Drivers


The connected car
developing market

large,



Timeline: demand
technologies



Regulations support initial deployments



Risk of competing technologies



Diverse requirements well fit for the
virtualization approach of 5G





Automotive players very invovled in
5GPP

Business model requires clarification for
infotainment services, low willingness to pay
for end user



Security can be a major issue

is

a

for

rapidly

A market with a strong potential to be exploited rapidly

available

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 17

5G and Manufacturing
Key requirements





High bandwidth for video, AR/VR services
Low power and cost communication for sensor networks
Ultra low latencies for automation
High reliability and dependability of the network

Drivers

Barriers



Development of the factory of the
future trend



Slow take up (5 – 10 years after consumer
markets)



opportunity for research and innovation
initiatives to adjust their agendas



Strong sensitivity to costs



Long decision process

older wired or wireless alternatives are
unlikely to meet all the requirements of
the domain



Low trust in ICT solutions for reliability



Strong focus on security



Interoperability with legacy solutions



A market with a significant potential, but a delayed adoption

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 18

5G and Energy
Key requirements






Low cost, low bandwidth uplink for smart meters monitoring
Long equipment lifespan and support (15+ years)
High reliability, security and robustness
Guaranteed quality of service
Ultra low latency and ultra high availability for network control use cases

Barriers

Drivers


Growing investment in smart grid equipment
and projects (over 400 billion $ until 2020).



Current wired solutions have significant
drawbacks and limits



A developing smart meter market.



Important cost constraints



2G and LPWA could be adopted for smart meters



Critical infrastructure with high requirements for
Quality of Service and availability in worst case
scenarios.



Very high requirements for backhaul and backbone
communication networks

A market for 5G in smart meters, if costs can be brought down

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 19

5G Adoption by Verticals
Few vertical use cases have a real potential to act as leaders of 5G deployments, but once deployed, many
have a strong potential of adoption over the years

Source: IDATE, in 5G verticals, November 2016

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 20

Summary
First available 5G service is likely to be fixed wireless access
Focus on high data rates and capacity in Japan, South Korea and USA
Focus on vertical markets in Europe?

5G challenges
Network challenges: slicing, smooth introduction of technological innovations
Spectrum harmonisation
Business models

Verticals & 5G
Most promising verticals?
Is 5G timetable and characteristics adapted to vertical requirements?
Role for satellite & broadcasting?