Go to Page # Page of 23
loading

Tomorrow’s Memories: A Cost Game

 Jim Handy
  4th-Dec-2015
Description: Change is Coming: Scaling limits require new approaches, Revolutionary changes cause delays, Costs dictate market changes, Nothing moves as quickly as expected. Planar NAND Issues: Control Gate to Floating Gate capacitance-New structures, New materials; Lithography issues-Immersion lithography ($$$), Multiple patterning; Electron count issues. 3D Requires Things We’ve Never Done Before! Thin-film channel transistors, Charge trap NAND, Stairstep etch, Non-doped source & drain, 60:1 aspect ratio etch, 50+ layer depositions, ...and the list goes on and on... The End of NAND: NAND will reach a scaling limit-Too few electrons per gate, Needs constant shrinks for cost reductions, 4-bit/cell hard to make-This may be the maximum possible; Other technologies will scale past NAND-PCM, MRAM, RRAM, FRAM....Not yet clear which will win. New Memories are Better: NAND-Serial read, Erase before write, Block erase/page write, Slow write, Inherent bit errors, Wear; New Memory-Random read, Overwrite, Byte write, Fast write, Lower error rates, Low/no wear. But Cost is More Important: Technologies don’t thrive until their cost falls below the market leaders, Technological strengths rarely offset cost, This is a highly-competitive market, Memories are a commodity. Summary: Scaling limits drive NAND to 3D, Later problems lead to revolutionary changes, Cost remains the most important factor, Anticipate delays.
Views: 1695
Domain: Electronics
Category: Semiconductors
Contributing Organization: SEMI
 ‐ More of their Presentations
Contents:
Tomorrow’s
Memories:
A Cost Game
Jim Handy

OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
Profound
Analysts
Reports & Custom
Services Consulting
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

Objective Analysis
Semiconductor Forecast Accuracy
Year

Forecast

Actual

2008 Zero growth at best.

-3%

2009 Growth in the mid teens

-9%

2010 Should approach 30%

32%

2011

Muted revenue growth ... See more

What's Changing In NAND Flash And What Isn't

NAND Gigabyte Demand:Yesterday-Cannibalizing established markets:Photo film,Floppy disks,CDs,Video tape,DVDs, Very rapid growth; Today & Tomorrow-Creating new markets: Smart phone

Jim Handy
09 October, 2015

Memory Markets: What to Expect in 2015

Now Entering a Time of Change- Historical behaviors no longer followed: Typical memory “Boom/Bust” cycle is investment driven, Profits aren’t driving CapEx as they always have in t

Jim Handy
05 March, 2015

Flash: Top Ten Things You Need to Know

This Year’s Top Ten- Data center flash growth stays strong, NAND prices will crash in mid-2015, Controllers will grow to enable TLC in the enterprise, NAND-aware software will be a

Jim Handy
10 February, 2015