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Tomorrow’s Memories: A Cost Game

 Jim Handy
Description: Change is Coming: Scaling limits require new approaches, Revolutionary changes cause delays, Costs dictate market changes, Nothing moves as quickly as expected. Planar NAND Issues: Control Gate to Floating Gate capacitance-New structures, New materials; Lithography issues-Immersion lithography ($$$), Multiple patterning; Electron count issues. 3D Requires Things We’ve Never Done Before! Thin-film channel transistors, Charge trap NAND, Stairstep etch, Non-doped source & drain, 60:1 aspect ratio etch, 50+ layer depositions, ...and the list goes on and on... The End of NAND: NAND will reach a scaling limit-Too few electrons per gate, Needs constant shrinks for cost reductions, 4-bit/cell hard to make-This may be the maximum possible; Other technologies will scale past NAND-PCM, MRAM, RRAM, FRAM....Not yet clear which will win. New Memories are Better: NAND-Serial read, Erase before write, Block erase/page write, Slow write, Inherent bit errors, Wear; New Memory-Random read, Overwrite, Byte write, Fast write, Lower error rates, Low/no wear. But Cost is More Important: Technologies don’t thrive until their cost falls below the market leaders, Technological strengths rarely offset cost, This is a highly-competitive market, Memories are a commodity. Summary: Scaling limits drive NAND to 3D, Later problems lead to revolutionary changes, Cost remains the most important factor, Anticipate delays.
Views: 1695
Domain: Electronics
Category: Semiconductors
Contributing Organization: SEMI
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A Cost Game
Jim Handy


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