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STATE OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET: It is not that bad, but most choose to be wary.

Posted on: 28-Jan-2008

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The Five P’s: Proper planning prevents poor performance.   Planning requires accurate data and information.  Planning must be fluid and real time, because events happen.  VLSI Research distills data into the information that drives your business.

Excerpts from The Chip Insider®’s Weather Report:

Chip Equipment Order activity turned up. It was not much, but it is an improvement after being in a slump for weeks.   The number of shootouts increased significantly. Princeton Technology, a fabless IC design company in Taiwan, selected Verigy’s V93000 Pin Scale test solution for its next-generation SOC testing platform.  RDA Microelectronics, a fabless company in China, selected LTX’s X-series system for testing IC devices for 3G and 4G handset applications. Broadcom purchased the EG6000 from Electroglas for engineering development and qualification of new device silicon wafers.  SUSS MicroTec has shipped and installed several MEMS production tools at Freescale Semiconductor.  The tools included a new DSM200 Series Front-to-Back Alignment Verification System, a SUSS MA200Compact Mask aligner, and a SUSS ABC200 series Wafer Bond Cluster system.  There were also shootouts in the display area. Photon Dynamics received an order for its  ArrayChecker™ flat panel display test and ArraySaver™ repair system from Plastic Logic for its new flexible electronic paper display manufacturing in Dresden, Germany. EV Group received a multi-million Euro order from a leading European plastic electronics manufacturer for use in high-volume production of flexible displays.  The multiple-system order will be installed at the customer’s facility between now and mid-2008.
 

 

Current Forecasts:

4Q07

1Q08

2007

2008

Chip Equipment Markets:            

$15.3B

  $16.2B

$63.6B

$61.9B

          Sequential Change

- 8.7%

  + 6.3%

+ 3.6%

- 2.8%

                     IC & related Equipment:             $13.7B       $14.4B       $57.1B      $54.1B

                         Sequential Change                    - 8.4%       + 5.3%       + 7.0%        - 5.3%

                    Display Equipment:                     $1.6B          $1.8B          $6.5B       $7.8B

                          Sequential Change                  - 11.6%      + 15.6%      - 18.7%     + 18.9%

 

Chip Making Markets:           

   $59.6B

$57.1B

$220.3B

$236.8B

         Sequential Change

   + 2.5%

    - 4.2%

  + 5.1%

+ 7.5%

         Capacity Utilization:

     92.1%

83.5%

89.2%

89.8%

 

 Flat Panel Display Markets:           

 

 

$120.1B

$131.0B

         Sequential Change

 

 

+ 36.7%

+ 9.1%

 

Critical Subsystem Markets:

$1.53B

$1.53B

$6.62B

$6.50B

         Sequential Change

     - 5.5%

+ 0.1%

- 0.8%

- 1.7%

 

VLSI Research Inc\'s CPPI spot-market IC pricing index continued to firm, declining only 0.2 points.  The rate of decline was smaller than that of the 24-month Moore’s Law curve.  As a result, the CPPI-to-Moore’s-Law gap moved into positive territory, jumping from -0.1 points to +0.4.  Beating Moore’s Law is a very positive sign, especially at this time of the year when demand is slow.  This shows that there are no excesses, and that the overall market is well balanced.  The overall level of activity in the spot market improved slightly from the prior week. DRAM was mixed: legacy parts tumbled, but DDR2 increased significantly for the second consecutive week.  NAND Flash was up, while MPUs remained unchanged.
 

VLSI’s CPPI* Index (1/07/2008 = 100)

 

1/21

1/14

1/07

12/31

12/24

12/17

12/10

12/03

99.0

99.2

100.0

100.5

100.4

100.8

102.0

104.8

 
* VLSI’s Chip Price/Performance Index measures chip prices relative to performance and functionality.  It is the only indicator of industry health that factors out the normal price decreases that occur due to Moore’s Law.  The CPPI is re-indexed to 100 at the turn of each year.  A CPPI of 50 means the industry delivered roughly the same functionality for half the price at the first week of the year or double the functionality for the same price.
 

Need History?

Go to the Chip History Center at www.chiphistory.org  – The world’s first website dedicated to preserving the history of the industry that opened the doors to the information age.

 
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Far more Real Time Information™ is available for clients in the password protected areas and via our e-mailings.  This is a complimentary release.  This report contains VLSI Research\'s analysis of information which in some cases has been furnished to VLSI Research by responsible persons.  Although data was obtained from sources considered reliable, it cannot be guaranteed.  No independent steps have been taken to confirm its accuracy, truthfulness, or completeness.  Printed in the
United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used in any legal proceedings nor may any information contained herein be disclosed to any third party, or reproduced, or transmitted to any third party, in any form or by any means -- mechanical, electronic, photocopying, duplicating, microfilming, videotape, verbally or otherwise -- without prior written permission of VLSI Research.

Copyright © 2008 by VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.

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About weQuest:
weQuest's are written by G Dan Hutcheson, his career spans more than thirty years, in which he became a well-known as a visionary for helping companies make businesses out of technology. This includes hundreds of successful programs involving product development, positioning, and launch in Semiconductor, Technology, Medicine, Energy, Business, High Tech, Enviorntment, Electronics, healthcare and Business devisions.

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