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VLSI's Forecast Update

Posted on: 04-Feb-2008

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Excerpts from The Chip Insider®’s Weather Report:

 

February 4, 2008  Visibility is poor and order activity remains light. Temperatures climbed up, but they are nowhere near the growth line. There were a number of shootouts announced last week.  Brion Technologies won an order from NEC Electronics for a Tachyon OPC+ for use in designing 40nm circuits. Metryx received a multi-system follow-on order from Inotera Memories for the Mentor DF3 platform; the tools will be used to monitor the etching process.  Verigy’s V93000 has been selected by Pulse~LINK as the preferred test platform for the company’s CWave® UWB chipsets. NexTech FAS received a follow-on order from Plastic Logic Limited for the NexTStarTM for use in the inspection of flexible organic active matrix displays.  Tegal has shipped a 981 ACS tool to a leading European semiconductor manufacturer for use in the production of automotive MEMS. Finally, Varian announced that it has shipped its new product, the VIISta HCS to an undisclosed customer.

 

The earnings results from chip and equipment makers so far have been generally positive, but many are guiding for a very slow 1Q08. Electronics demand has been stable, but the threat of a pull-back in consumer spending has many executives cautious. The main culprit is the anemic U.S. economy, which has made many overseas investors nervous. The U.S. government has lowered interest rates and created a financial package to boost consumer spending. It remains to be seen just how successful these measures will be in firing up the economy.

 

 

 

Current Forecasts:

4Q07

1Q08

2007

2008

Chip Equipment Markets:           

$15.3B

  $16.2B

$63.6B

$61.9B

          Sequential Change

- 8.7%

  + 6.3%

+ 3.6%

- 2.8%

      IC & related Equipment:                             $13.7B           $14.4B               $57.1B              $54.1B

          Sequential Change                                    - 8.4%              + 5.3%               + 7.0%            - 5.3%

      Display Equipment:                                         $1.6B           $1.8B                 $6.5B                $7.8B

          Sequential Change                                   - 11.6%        + 15.6%           - 18.7%               + 18.9%

 

Chip Making Markets:           

   $57.7B

$56.3B

$218.4B

$235.3B

         Sequential Change

   - 0.7%

     - 2.4%

  + 4.3%

+ 7.7%

         Capacity Utilization:

     91.6%

  82.2%

  89.0%

  89.3%

 

 FPD Markets:           

 

 

$119.4B

$131.0B

         Sequential Change

 

 

+ 35.9%

+ 9.7%

 

Critical Subsystem Markets:

$1.53B

$1.53B

$6.62B

$6.50B

         Sequential Change

     - 5.5%

+ 0.1%

- 0.8%

- 1.7%

 

 

 

 

VLSI Research Inc\'s CPPI spot-market IC pricing index beat Moore’s gravity for the second consecutive week, increasing 0.2 points.  This widened the CPPI-to-Moore’s-Law gap from 0.4 points to 1.1.  Spot prices had a nice run at the beginning of the previous week on the back of strong demand.  However, the momentum dwindled towards the end of the week with many parts giving away most of their earlier gains.  DRAM had another good week, with DDR2 increasing significantly for the third week in a row.  MPUs also finished in positive territory, while NAND Flash declined.  

 

 

VLSI’s CPPI* Index (1/07/2008 = 100)

 

1/28

1/21

1/14

1/07

12/31

12/24

12/17

12/10

12/03

11/26

11/19

11/12

99.2

99.0

99.2

100.0

100.5

100.4

100.8

102.0

104.8

106.1

107.6

108.7

 

 

* VLSI’s Chip Price/Performance Index measures chip prices relative to performance and functionality.  It is the only indicator of industry health that factors out the normal price decreases that occur due to Moore’s Law.  The CPPI is re-indexed to 100 at the turn of each year.  A CPPI of 50 means the industry delivered roughly the same functionality for half the price at the first week of the year or double the functionality for the same price.

 

 

Need History?

Go to the Chip History Center at www.chiphistory.org  – The world’s first website dedicated to preserving the history of the industry that opened the doors to the information age.

 

 

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Far more Real Time Information™ is available for clients in the password protected areas and via our e-mailings.  This is a complimentary release.  This report contains VLSI Research\'s analysis of information which in some cases has been furnished to VLSI Research by responsible persons.  Although data was obtained from sources considered reliable, it cannot be guaranteed.  No independent steps have been taken to confirm its accuracy, truthfulness, or completeness.  Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used in any legal proceedings nor may any information contained herein be disclosed to any third party, or reproduced, or transmitted to any third party, in any form or by any means -- mechanical, electronic, photocopying, duplicating, microfilming, videotape, verbally or otherwise -- without prior written permission of VLSI Research.

Copyright © 2008 by VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.


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