Sustainable Energy In America

Sustainable Energy In America

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Description: Aims to augment existing, reputable sources of information on US energy. Focuses on renewables, efficiency, natural gas. Fills important data gaps in certain areas (eg, investment flows by sector, the contribution of distributed energy).

Contains data through the end of 2016 wherever possible. Employs Bloomberg New Energy Finance data in most cases, augmented by EIA, FERC, ACEEE, LBNL, and other sources where necessary. Contains the very latest information on new energy technology costs.

Has been graciously underwritten by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. Is in its fifth edition (first published in January 2013).

 
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Contents:
2017

Sustainable Energy
In America
FACTBOOK

GET THE FACTS

www.bcse.org

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the
basis of derivative works without attributing Bloomberg Finance L.P. and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. For more
information on terms of use, please contact sales.bnef@bloomberg.net. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies
throughout. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

About the Factbook (1 of 4):
What is it and what’s new

What is it?
• Aims to augment existing, reputable sources of information on US energy
• Focuses on renewables, efficiency, natural gas

• Fills important data gaps in certain areas (eg, investment flows by sector, contribution of distributed energy)
• Contains data through the end of 2016 wherever possible
• Employs Bloomberg New Energy Finance data in most cases, augmented by EIA, FERC, ACEEE, LBNL, and other
sources where necessary
• Contains the very latest information on new energy technology costs

• Has been graciously underwritten by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy
• Is in its fifth edition (first published in January 2013)

What’s new?
• Format: This year’s edition of the Factbook (this document) consists of Powerpoint slides showing updated charts. For
those looking for more context on any sector, the 2014 edition can continue to serve as a reference. The emphasis of
this 2017 edition is to capture new developments that occurred in the past year.
• Updated analysis: Most charts have been extended by one year to capture the latest data.
• 2016 developments: The text in the slides highlights major changes that occurred over the past year.
• New coverage: This report contains data shown for the first time in the Factbook, including transmission investment,
PURPA-driven solar build, battery pricing, natural gas exports, energy spending, biofuel blending and electric vehicle
model availability.

© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

1

About the Factbook (2 of 4):
Understanding terminology for this report

(not covered
in this
report)

OTHER
CLEAN
ENERGY

SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY
(as defined in this
report)

FOSSILFIRED /
NUCLEAR
POWER

RENEWABLE
ENERGY

• Natural gas
• CCS









• Nuclear

• Wave / tidal

© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydro
Biomass
Biogas
Waste-to-energy

DISTRIBUTED POWER,
STORAGE, EFFICIENCY









Small-scale renewables
CHP and WHP
Fuel cells
Storage
Smart grid / demand response
Building efficiency
Industrial efficiency (aluminum)
Direct use applications for natural gas

TRANSPORT

• Electric vehicles
(including hybrids)
• Natural gas vehicles

• Lighting
• Industrial efficiency (other industries)

2

Roadmap

2016: achieving new highs

Sustainable energy: the new normal

Falling costs to consumers

Wrap-up

© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

3

2016: achieving new highs

US energy overview:
The economy is more energy productive than ever

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9

GDP (indexed)
Primary energy consumption (indexed)

● Energy productivity continues to rise: in 2016, GDP rose 1.6% while total primary energy consumption fell by 0.2%.
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg Terminal
Notes: Values for 2016 energy consumption are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2016). GDP is real and chained (2009 dollars); annual growth rate for GDP
for 2016 is based on consensus of economic forecasts gathered on the Bloomberg Terminal as of January 2017.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

5

Deployment: US solar build sets new records
Build by sector (GW)
14
12

2.3

10

1.1

8
1.2
1.0

3.2

4.1

4.4

1

0
2014

0.8
0.9

4
2
0

0.4
0.9
1.0
2011

0.5
0.8
1.9

2012

Commercial &
Industrial PV

2.0

6

2013

0.8

2015

Residential
PV

8.9

Utility PV
Thermal

0
2016

● At 8.9GW, 2016 utility-scale PV installations more than doubled the prior record of 4.4GW set in 2015.
● The small-scale PV markets also achieved another record in 2016, installing 3.4GW of solar capacity. 12 states
experienced more than a 100% growth in residential PV build.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Values are in GW DC.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

6

Deployment: US becomes a natural gas net exporter
Exports and imports of natural gas (Bcfd)
8
6

4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8

-10
2011
LNG imports

2012
LNG exports

2013
Imports from Canada

2014
Exports to Mexico

2015
Exports to Canada

2016
Net exports

● Exports to Mexico have been growing steadily.
● 2016 marked the opening of two trains at the Sabine Pass LNG export terminal, which, combined with a
decrease in imports, made the US a net LNG exporter.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA

Note: data is through October 2016.

© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

7

Deployment: US non-hydropower energy storage picks up steam
Commissioned and announced capacity (MW)
Incremental

Cumulative

Commissioned

800

Incremental

4,500

4,000

700

800
700

3,500

600

3,000

500

Cumulative

Announced
752

4,085

4,000
3,500

600

3,000

500

2,500
320

2,000
300

1,500

200
100

132

129

47
45
44
3534
6 - - 0 0 - 22 6 7 1924 2 16 8 5 10 7 22 6 14
2
1 - - -

0

1,000

500

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2,000

302

300

233

1,500

171
129

200

100
1 - 4

-

2,500

399

400

400

4,500

85
4325 42 40
19 1216 7

55
-

1,000
94
6980

51
22 5 2416
2 0

500

12

0

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

● Energy storage is gaining momentum: the US installed a record 199MW in 2016, bringing the total to 814MW.
● And more is on the way: 4,085MW have been announced to date.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Does not include pumped hydropower, underground compressed air energy storage, or flooded lead-acid batteries. Minimum project size for inclusion in this analysis is 100kW or
100kWh.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

8

Sustainable energy: the new
normal

Global context: Total new investment in clean energy by country
or region ($bn)
400
349
350

317

300

Other EMEA

315
291

276

287
269

Other APAC
Other AMER

250
205

207

Europe

183

200

Brazil
130

150
100
50
0

India

119

88
49

62
17

26

39

45

63

92

88

China

67
United States

11
63
63
59
9
53
52
47
47
3
45
44
35
35
17
10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

● The US has invested $507bn into clean energy technologies in just the last 10 years, and remains the secondlargest destination globally for clean energy investment.
● Investment, on average, has grown significantly since the early 2000s, despite precipitous drops in costs.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: For definition of clean energy, see slide in Section 2.2 of this report titled “Finance: US clean energy investment (1 of 2) – total new investment, all asset classes ($bn)” . AMER is
Americas; APAC is Asia-Pacific; EMEA is Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Investment figures are nominal.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

10

Deployment: US coal power plant retirements completed and
announced by year (GW)
16
14

12
10
8

15

6
9

4

6
2
1 1

1

3

4

5

3

2

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

0

1

7

EIA retired

EIA announced

● 2016 saw another 7.2GW of coal-fired power plants drop offline, after 2015 marked the largest single year of coal
retirements ever (at just under 15GW). Since 2011, the coal fleet has shrunk 12% from its peak size of 308GW.
● This does not account for coal plants that are mothballed or on standby – ie, not generating.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Notes: ‘Retirements’ does not include conversions from coal to natural gas or biomass; includes retirements or announced retirements reported to the EIA through end-November 2016.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

11

US energy overview:
Electric generating capacity build by fuel type (GW)
70
60
50

Renewables

40

Hydro
Nuclear

30

Oil
20

Gas
Coal

10

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

0

● Last five years: 62% of new capacity additions have been renewable energy projects.
● Last 25 years: 92% has been natural gas plants or renewable energy projects.
● In 2016, renewables added 22GW of capacity, or roughly 70% of total build for the second straight year. Gas build
totaled 7.4GW, and for the first time since the 1990s, there was also nuclear build of 1.1GW.
Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. “Renewables” here does not include hydro, which is shown separately. Last year’s Factbook included
anticipated nuclear build; however, the Watts Bar reactor was in fact turned on in 2016; accordingly, the nuclear build is shown here in 2016.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

12

US energy overview:
Renewable energy generation by technology
US non-hydropower renewable generation by
technology (TWh)

Other
renewables

144 167

200

150

200
100

250

241 249 269 255

313 271

Hydropower
264 253 244 259

100
50
0

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

0

2015

218 254 290 309

2014

360

2013

194

2012

105 126

413 422

2011

300

346

375

300

2010

500

309
290
16 63
254 16
64 56
218 16 64
194
16 61
39
167 15
29
58 9
144
15 57
126
4
15
105
56 2
15
224
54 1
15
182 191
168
55
141
56 1 1
120
1 55 74 95
34

2009

507 490 517

350

544 553

360
17

2008

600

400

400

619

2007

700

Geothermal

Biomass, biogas,
waste-to-energy

Solar

Wind

2016

US renewable generation by technology
(including hydropower) (TWh)

● Renewable generation surged in 2016, increasing 12% over 2015 levels. Hydropower remains the largest
single source of renewable generation (42%), but wind (36%) is catching up quickly.
● Non-hydro renewable generation has more than tripled over the past ten years.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
Notes: Values for 2016 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through November 2016). Includes net energy consumption by pumped hydropower storage facilities.
Totals may not sum due to rounding. Beginning in 2014, numbers include estimated generation from distributed solar; generation from other distributed resources is not included.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

13

US energy overview:
Electricity generation mix
100%

80%
60%

8%

9%

11%

10%

22%

22%

24%

24%

19%

20%

20%

20%

13%

12%

13%

13%

25%

31%

28%

28%

19%
19%

19%

20%

48%

44%

45%

42%

15%

33%

34%

19%
19%

40%
49%

14%

Renewables
(including hydro)
Natural gas

Nuclear
20%

Oil
37%

39%

39%

33%

30%

Coal

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

0%

● Natural gas has eclipsed coal as the largest contributor to the US electricity mix, hitting 34% in 2016. Coal sank to
second place, providing 30% of the mix – its lowest share on record.
● Since 2007: coal’s share plummeted from 49% to 30%, while natural gas’s grew from 22% to 34% and renewables
from 8% to 15%.
Source: EIA
Notes: Values for 2016 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through November 2016). In chart at left, contribution from ‘Other’ is not shown; the amount is
minimal and consists of miscellaneous technologies including hydrogen and non-renewable waste. The hydropower portion of ‘Renewables’ includes negative generation from pumped storage.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

14

Deployment: US natural gas production and gas-directed rig count
Number of rigs

Production (Bcfd)

90

1,800

80

1,600

70

1,400

60

1,200

50

1,000

40

800

30

600

20

400

10

200

0
2006

0
2007

2008

2009
Shale

2010

2011
2012
2013
Other lower 48

2014

2015
Rigs

2016

● US natural gas production held steady despite rig counts falling 48% year-on-year.
● Producers are selectively drilling in productive ‘sweet spots’ and turning to an inventory of drilled but
uncompleted wells (DUCs) to cost-effectively extract gas, and the industry has made technological
improvements in efficiencies.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, Baker Hughes. Data up through the latest comprehensive numbers available (October 2016).
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

15

Deployment: US natural gas demand by end use (Bcfd)
80.0

65.6

70.0

59.5
60.0
50.0

1.0

18.2

58.1
0.9

18.8

61.3
0.9

66.9

1.7

1.8

62.7
1.4

24.9

20.2

20.7

13.1

12.9

11.4

8.5

8.6

22.4

40.0
13.4
30.0

13.1

68.6
2.0

22.2

71.3

71.7

2.9

3.7
0.4

26.4

28.4

13.4

13.9

7.9

9.0

9.5

8.8

7.8

12.6

10.6

18.2

16.9

18.7

19.1

19.8

20.3

20.9

20.6

20.9

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Industrial

10.0

8.5

2008

20.0

8.6

Commercial

0.0
Residential

Power

LNG exports

Mexico exports

● 2016 demand represented a 21% increase from 2008 levels, and a slight year-on-year rise from 2015.
● The power sector drove domestic demand growth, jumping 7% compared to 2015.
● Pipeline exports to Mexico have nearly quadrupled since 2008, and the US started exporting liquefied natural
gas (LNG) this past year.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA Note: Values for 2016 are projected based upon the latest available data (October 2016).
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

16

US energy overview:
Greenhouse gas emissions, power sector, energy sector and
economy-wide (MtCO2e)
8,000

3,000
GHG emissions from
power sector only

Total (gross) GHG emissions,
2005-2016e

7,500

2,500

7,000

Obama's
target, 2020
Total GHG
emissions,
1990

6,500
6,000

2,000
1,500

5,500

GHG emissions from
energy sector, 1990-2016e

5,000

1,000
500

4,500

4,000

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

0

● US GHG emissions are at their lowest levels in 25 years, falling to an estimated 6.5GtCO2e in 2016, 12%
below 2005 levels.
● In 2016, power-sector emissions shrank 5.3% year on year, bringing them to 24.1% below 2005 levels.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA, EPA
Notes: ‘Sinks’ refer to forests and green areas which absorb carbon dioxide. Values may differ from last year’s, due to recalculations and revisions published by the EPA, primarily to methane emissions. Values for 2016 are
projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through October 2016). ‘Obama’s target’ refers to a pledge made in Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. The target shown here assumes
17% reduction by 2020 on 2005 levels of total GHG emissions, but the actual language of the announcement left vague whether the reductions applied to economy-wide emissions or just emissions of certain sectors. Data for total
GHG emissions comes from EPA’s Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1990-2014), published April 2016. Data for CO2 emissions from the energy sector comes from the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review.
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

17

Falling costs for consumers

Economics: Price of solar modules and experience curve (2015$/W
as function of global cumulative capacity)
Cost (2015 $/W) 100

1976

1985
10
2003

2008

1
2015
2016
(estimate)
0.1

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Cumulative capacity (MW)
Historical prices (Maycock)

Chinese c-Si module price

Experience curve

● PV module prices have fallen 26.5%, on average, for every doubling of installed capacity
● At the end of 2016, the global average module price was $0.41/W, down 90% from 2008 levels ($3.88/W).
● Global oversupply will likely depress prices further in 2017.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Paul Maycock
dollars.

Notes: The precise learning rate depends on the end-point chosen, but we believe $0.41/W to be slightly below the experience curve at the end of 2016. Figures in real 2015

© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

19

Economics: US levelized cost of electricity (unsubsidized across
power generation technologies, H2 2016 ($/MWh)
Solar thermal - trough
Nuclear
CHP
PV - no tracking

PV - tracking
Coal
Wind - onshore
Combined cycle gas

0

50
100
H2 2016 benchmark

150
200
H1 2016 benchmark

250

● On a levelized cost basis, renewables are competitive with coal and natural gas-fired power.
● The unsubsidized LCOE for wind came in as low as $37/MWh in Texas, the cheapest of all technologies
assessed. Solar PV can be built for as low as $50/MWh, again in Texas and the Southwest.
● Natural gas is cheaper to build than coal across most of the country.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2017. Developed in partnership with The Business Council for Sustainable Energy.

20

Economics: Average 2015-H1 2016 offtake prices for wind and
solar PPAs by signing date ($/MWh)